yp
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Posts posted by yp
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moon landing: 1969
the first flight: 1903
the creation of the internal combustion engine: early to mid 19th century.
the development of the first electronic computers: 1946 (ENIAC) with the first microprosesors not arriving until the early 1970s.
It doesn't seem like major completely new innovations happened all that frequently in the past either. The thing is none of the above happened out of the blue. The internal combustion engine was built up from innovations starting as far back as the Romans in the 3rd century using crankshafts and connecting rods in saw mills. (Hierapolis_sawmill)
The digital computer was built on mathmatics done in previous centuries. And the hardware itself is simply built upon the same principles of mechanical computing machines, which have been envisioned as far back as Liebniz. Vacuum tubes (and later transistors) serve as the valves in the machine.
Nothing ever springs forth from nowhere. Technology builds upon itself in small steps (and sometimes leaps or bounds), but always built upon what comes before. Sometimes a purely theoretical idea can sit around for centuries before we are ready to put it to practical use. Right now we are in the process of connecting everyone and everything together. This will lead to things we can't yet imagine when the process is finished.
Thiel is a smart guy, but that is an asinine statement if I ever heard one.
Great comment and actually, I see what you mean.
This is true, that almost all tech (past and present) is based on some other technology or scientific findings preceding it.
Some of the posts in this thread have basically changed my mind haha.
P.s. that quote wasn't from Thiel, it was from Kasparov... Just felt the need to defend the genius that is Peter Thiel :)
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I totally disagree. ;) Garri Kasparov and Peter Thiel did not look at the right places for innovations. For past three decades. Our innovation activities have been focused in financial field, not the material field. Top talents from Harvard, Columbia, MIT, Stanford and etc have been all participated in the financial innovations, particularly in the derivative products. We have CDO, CDO squared and etc. (sorry, I can name all of them.) 8)
This is very true. After the cold war and the space race, our greatest of minds seem to have gravitated towards finance (Quants, Financial Engineers, etc.). Capitalism at it's finest, I guess.
For example; Renaissance Technologies; a HFT Fund that primarily hires PhD grads from the fields of Physics, Math, Computer Science, etc. to develop the algorithms used for their HFT Black Boxes... robbing the world a penny at a time; millions of times a second.
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I guess there's a difference in definition here when we`re talking about the word "innovation".
I agree with what most of you are saying that there is great development in technology; no doubt about that.
I also think that quote from Kasparov is an overstatement.
However, I still feel that ALOT (not all) of what is being mentioned on this thread is horizontal technology & innovation (diagonal at best).
Software is still 0's and 1's. The newest devices we talking about (iPhones, etc.) are still just a series of logic gates at their very core.
I know this may become cause for controversy; but I still see our latest and greatest phones, tablets, computers as glorified Casio calculators. I don't mean to undermine these technologies b.c. I'm as amazed as the rest of us at the capabilities of these devices.
I think 'smarter' software and electronics would entail some higher form of self-learning Artificial Intelligence of some kind. However, I think that all of our great software, etc. of today (though undeniably better than before, MUCH BETTER) is still at the very core just an algorithm bound by the limitations of its "Software Operation/Requirements" list.
There is work on things like Neural Networks and Quantum computing for example which promises to radically change all that we call electronics technology, but that hasn't happened (yet!).
Also, I agree about the fields of Genetics, Nanotech and I guess 3D printing, have been pretty "innovative" fields but the scale of pure Innovation may be faltering, no?
REF: http://blakemasters.com/post/20400301508/cs183class1
By Peter Thiel's definition; Innovation (and NEW technology) is the "0 to 1" problem, which has lost a lot of focus. A lot of what we're doing now is "globalization"; improving and iterating; this is the "1 to n" problem. I'm not saying that the latter isn't important. I'm saying that I agree with Thiel in that true "innovation" is running low.
What they mean is that there weren't many fundamental, ground breaking innovations. What's described in this thread so far, are mostly incremental progress based on innovations that occurred more than 30 years ago. Internet was invented in late 60s - early 70s. Last major genetics breakthroughs were in the 50s.
It's like a Buzz Aldrin said, "You promised me Mars colonies, and all I got was Facebook."
lol. Yeah, no paradigm shifts, just lots and lots of rapid iterative improvement. Although it's a little mind blowing to think about what a paradigm shift would be like in this day of age. Infinite energy sources? Speed of light travel? Dunno... All seems pretty sci-fi to me...
Hrm... After doing a bit of research on wikipedia, it looks like even Semmelweis, the precursor to Pasteur, was even "standing on the shoulders of giants". Maybe all "innovation" is just iterative improvement?
Amen! :)
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Great documentary with Garri Kasparov (former world Chess Champion, Russian politician, great thinker) and Peter Thiel (PayPal, Facebook Investor, overall awesome genius, great thinker).
Some of it is in German but it's well worth watching I think.
Come to think of it, there really hasn't been much ground-breaking innovation lately. Computers aren't getting smarter per se, just faster (see Moore's law); this was basically the reason that Kasparov was beaten by Deep Blue (computer) in Chess.
Not much has happened in the last three decades that can rival things like the moon landing, the first flight, the creation of the internal combustion engine, the development of the first electronic computers (and eventually affordable personal computers)
Instead, personally, what I see too much of (even at tech and "entrepreneurial" conferences) is just people running around developing damn "apps"... no real innovation in my eyes.
However, Elon Musk (and a few others) is showing some progress :)
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Seems our formerly tech shy Mr. Buffett's joined the Twitter world.
Verified account and everything.
With Bill Gates tweeting at him already.
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As long as our society ( western civilization) is ego based it will never "improve". Attachment to profit and a sense of entitlement is all ego based behavior and creates a feeling of always wanting "more". If your self worth is attached to your stock quote then you're playing a losing game its all an illusion. Even if you're net worth keeps increasing you will always want "more". So is capitalism killing our society? In the end i would say no if you're aware that its all an illusion and ego based. The sheer awareness ( consicousness) will create change and create conscious capitalism. John Mackey the founder of whole foods wrote a book about this. Capitalism with the intention to connect the world, change lives, and show compassion over profits will bring what i call capitalism 2.0. Paradoxically, capitalism focused on connecting the world and creating real change will equate to more profits. Step one is always awareness. With awareness you know nothing is tangible in this world. We all are going to pass and this game we play should be played cause its fun not for profit. And our goal as humans is to try to end suffering for our fellow humans cause we all are connected. Capitalism is on the right track cause companies out their do focus more on connecting the world over profits. We are in the beginning stages of the refinement of capitalism. Capitalism works so well cause us humans are hardwired to be ego based until the ego destroys the world. Being aware of how dangerous ego based behavior is we can change capitalism to end suffering. I think people understand this better now since 2008-2009. Or maybe not . Maybe we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again. I hope not. Capitalism 2.0 seems like a better game to play.
I like what you're saying here.
In case you haven't seen it, here's a video that I feel is somewhat connected to what you're saying about ego:
Giving up false egos and prejudgement could do the world good. Definitely connected to the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
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I've always been confused by the notion that one system or another is destroying our morals. Looking back at history I don't understand how anyone can say things are getting worse not better...
Have you looked at what's on TV? Divorce rates? Single and unwed parents? Acceptable drug use?
A book that talks a bit about the change in culture is "Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World that Can't Stop Talking." She goes in some depth about how, at one time, we were a culture of character (Buffett's generation and prior). Doing the "right" thing was championed. Now, we are more of a culture of personality (people like Kim Kardashian). Where we value what gets are attention compared to what's intrinsically motivating.
I totally agree that what's on tv is scary, but as Peter Diamandis explores in the following video, maybe it's a bit of an over representation. I mean I totally agree things are bad (and I do agree that the likes of Kim kardashian are rotting at the morals of our society) but I think things haven't really gotten worse, if anything there's a lot that's gotten better. As the video shows, majority of the people living under the poverty line still have access to things that were a luxury even 10 to 20 years ago.
I think the world requires a great deal of work, for sure, I'm right with you on that, but maybe the media isn't the best representation for the current state of affairs. Just my two cents(in collaboration with Mr. Diamandis) :)
Here's the video:
P.s. even things like the Sandy Hook shootings and the Boston Marathon Bombing, as bad as they are (with much respect to the departed), I think they made to seem much worse because of what is over coverage by the media in my view. Constant coverage of such things by the media, I think, just promotes fear and leads to increased anxiety and other issues among people.
Also, speaking of Kim Kardashian, haven't the masses always wanted a means to get a glimpse into the life of superstars and royalty (in exchange further enriching and idolizing such people). I mean I love this sorta discussion (on society and morals) but I feel like a lot of people just would much rather read about the new poodle Kim Kardashian just bought or something.
Question: Do you have any sort of ideas as to how the morals of society can be "improved"? (Improved in the general sense I guess meaning toward less greed, selfishness, doing the "right" thing, etc.) I love thinking about this question.
Btw, I haven't read that Susan Cain book, but I've seen the TED talk, definitely a good one!
yp, thanks for the video. I'll try to check it out in a bit. I'd suggest Cain's book. It's certainly a worthwhile read. She goes a bit into how things used to be versus how they are now. Popular books then included topics about improving ones character and the like. I think the only real way to improve morality is to value it. Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of money or fame to be made on that. :P
This is so true. I think this is happening very slowly. As a child I was under the impression that we all should aspire to be filthy rich so we can buy nice cars and mansions. But as I started to learn about the likes of mr. Buffett, my views have significantly changed. So much so that every time I hear about the ridiculous extravagances of the billionaires of today, I cringe thinking at how much more could have been done of that money.
The idea of "eqo" as a negative makes a lot of sense to me. I feel that even the most successful and wealthiest of people owe some part of their success to sheer luck, good fortune or what have you. But the meritocratic belief that "I am wealthy because I deserve it and those who are poor are lazy and fools" is very premature and highly egoistic in my view. I think there needs to be a shift towards humility and giving up foolish egos and snobbery.
This books sounds great, I look forward to reading it this summer.
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I've always been confused by the notion that one system or another is destroying our morals. Looking back at history I don't understand how anyone can say things are getting worse not better...
Have you looked at what's on TV? Divorce rates? Single and unwed parents? Acceptable drug use?
A book that talks a bit about the change in culture is "Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World that Can't Stop Talking." She goes in some depth about how, at one time, we were a culture of character (Buffett's generation and prior). Doing the "right" thing was championed. Now, we are more of a culture of personality (people like Kim Kardashian). Where we value what gets are attention compared to what's intrinsically motivating.
I totally agree that what's on tv is scary, but as Peter Diamandis explores in the following video, maybe it's a bit of an over representation. I mean I totally agree things are bad (and I do agree that the likes of Kim kardashian are rotting at the morals of our society) but I think things haven't really gotten worse, if anything there's a lot that's gotten better. As the video shows, majority of the people living under the poverty line still have access to things that were a luxury even 10 to 20 years ago.
I think the world requires a great deal of work, for sure, I'm right with you on that, but maybe the media isn't the best representation for the current state of affairs. Just my two cents(in collaboration with Mr. Diamandis) :)
Here's the video:
P.s. even things like the Sandy Hook shootings and the Boston Marathon Bombing, as bad as they are (with much respect to the departed), I think they made to seem much worse because of what is over coverage by the media in my view. Constant coverage of such things by the media, I think, just promotes fear and leads to increased anxiety and other issues among people.
Also, speaking of Kim Kardashian, haven't the masses always wanted a means to get a glimpse into the life of superstars and royalty (in exchange further enriching and idolizing such people). I mean I love this sorta discussion (on society and morals) but I feel like a lot of people just would much rather read about the new poodle Kim Kardashian just bought or something.
Question: Do you have any sort of ideas as to how the morals of society can be "improved"? (Improved in the general sense I guess meaning toward less greed, selfishness, doing the "right" thing, etc.) I love thinking about this question.
Btw, I haven't read that Susan Cain book, but I've seen the TED talk, definitely a good one!
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I've always been confused by the notion that one system or another is destroying our morals. Looking back at history I don't understand how anyone can say things are getting worse not better...
Have you looked at what's on TV? Divorce rates? Single and unwed parents? Acceptable drug use?
A book that talks a bit about the change in culture is "Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World that Can't Stop Talking." She goes in some depth about how, at one time, we were a culture of character (Buffett's generation and prior). Doing the "right" thing was championed. Now, we are more of a culture of personality (people like Kim Kardashian). Where we value what gets are attention compared to what's intrinsically motivating.
I totally agree that what's on tv is scary, but as Peter Diamandis explores in the following video, maybe it's a bit of an over representation. I mean I totally agree things are bad (and I do agree that the likes of Kim kardashian are rotting at the morals of our society) but I think things haven't really gotten worse, if anything there's a lot that's gotten better. As the video shows, majority of the people living under the poverty line still have access to things that were a luxury even 10 to 20 years ago.
I think the world requires a great deal of work, for sure, I'm right with you on that, but maybe the media isn't the best representation for the current state of affairs. Just my two cents(in collaboration with Mr. Diamandis) :)
Here's the video:
P.s. even things like the Sandy Hook shootings and the Boston Marathon Bombing, as bad as they are (with much respect to the departed), I think they made to seem much worse because of what is over coverage by the media in my view. Constant coverage of such things by the media, I think, just promotes fear and leads to increased anxiety and other issues among people.
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I don't think I learned anything new from what he said here (after reading the snowball, etc.) but I think I learned a great deal from the way he said it. The level of patience and humility Mr. Buffett always exhibits is inspiring.
Thanks for the post! :)
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I recently learned about this new Toronto based energy start up called Hydrostor.
They've developed a technology to store excess electricity developed from wind turbines at night (when there's low demand for this electricity) using compressed air in massive "accumulators" located under water.
I think it's brilliant!
The video on this pages explains the concept in detail:
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I'm guessing you've heard of Dataroma but I'll post the link anyway for people who may not have:
http://www.dataroma.com/m/home.php
For those who don't know, it's a listing of the holdings (by # of shares & increase/decrease) of many of the top value investors (WEB, PW, Ackman, etc.).
I don't think it's updated regularlly but it's a decent resource for raw ideas I think. :)
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High-end day care center providing multiple language learning and academic instruction. High demand with many dual income families striving to put there kids on the right path. Probably $200K give or take to get going
This sounds brilliant! Located in any major metropolitan area where such parents work, it seems like it would be a real hit!
Parents who work in the area could drop off their kids right there and visit them during their lunch break or w/e.
"High-end" would mean you could charge a fair bit and situate it in a nice location and hire the best of teachers. Hire instructors with degrees in early child development psychology, etc and use that as a major selling point and make such a Day-care into more of a brand than just a child care business.
Awesome idea Kyle!
I'm actually looking into doing some Small Business Marketing Consulting this summer instead of just getting a summer job (I'm still a student).
I plan to approach small businesses and offer online marketing management services. I'm constantly using electronic social media (Facebook, twitter, etc.) and I think I'm somewhat versed in the field now. Also, I know the very basics of Search Engine Optimization which seems to me like it can be one of the greatest tools for small businesses.
I could offer some help to small business owners on how to establish, enhance and profit from, a web presence. I won't need any capital for this kinda thing (not that I have any) which is why it would be perfect for me.
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I normally abstain from commenting on such things, but I can't help but add my opinion here. This quote sums it up. It is very similar to an argument made in "Bowling for Columbine":
Definitely agree! Gun control is only a part of the solution in my view as well.
ex:
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This is a pretty good video as a primer on investing... probably stuff that most ppl on this board have known for years tho :).
Nonetheless, Bill Ackman is awesome! :D
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Thanks. The Samsara trailer looks great. Definitely going to watch it.
Here's an extensive list of documentaries, some are very good:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgcLYUbRptFNdGdNaHR4RVRvV2h4U1FSV1lTemdkU2c#gid=0
Baraka is not on the list, but is on my list of the best documentaries. If you liked Home and Baraka, you might like Koyaanisqatsi.
Great list! Thanks for that. :) Some of those are my favorites; The Elegant Universe, Cosmos, Inside Job, Senna, Enron..., etc.
I'm definitely gonna go through the rest and check 'em out.
"Natural Phenomena"
Another sweet video! Thanks :)
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Another great doc. IMO:
The HOME project by Yann Arthus-Bertrand.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqxENMKaeCU&hd=1
Its about the environment and more importantly; sustainability. The last 30 minutes or so are especially worth watching.
Kinda helped me realize the excesses we live with in the developed world.
Amazing Videography in this one too!
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I haven't watched Baraka yet, but I saw Samsara twice!
Freaking awesome, the DVD comes out in January.
I actually learned about Baraka after I watched the trailer for Samsara and looked up its wikipedia page.
I really wish I'd heard of Samsara this summer. Judging from the trailer; it seems like it would have been amazing to watch in the theater.
They've done a ridiculously good job but I kinda wish these documentaries were narrated b/c I'm quite curious about what exactly some of these locations, etc. are.
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This is totally unrelated to investing but I just came across this phenomenal documentary (in my opinion) and thought some of the members of this group might enjoy it (my facebook friends weren't too interested haha).
Though I'm guessing some of you might have already seen it as it's very old.
The following is a description about it:
"Baraka has no plot, no storyline, no actors, no dialogue nor any voice-over. Instead, the film uses themes to present new steps and evoke emotion through pure cinema. Baraka is a kaleidoscopic, global compilation of both natural events and by fate, life and activities of humanity on Earth."
- Wikipedia
Link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucji1w0h30A
You can also watch it in 720p!
There's also a sequel that came out this August; Samsara.
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An hour & 15 minutes left and the bid's at $11,100.
$11 k in exchange for a lunch? Mr. Pabrai sure knows how to raise money for charity effectively!
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I don't think anyone's mentioned it here yet, but if you're in Canada, a pretty good place to buy all kinds of cartridges is:
http://www.123inkcartridges.ca/
I get my Samsung laser printer cartridge for about $46 (whereas the same piece by the OEM costs about $95). Plus they ship in about 2 biz days on average and the shipping is free for orders above $49 (so I usually just get a pen or high lighter along with my cartridge from the site, to bump my order above the $49 mark).
Just something to consider :)
-Yash
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I started that one too but lost interest. I'd like to try it again though.
I just signed up for this one. A Beginner's Guide to Irrational Behavior - Dan Ariel
Whoa!! This is so cool! I never knew about this site before. I really like Dan Ariely; he's brilliant. I just signed up. Thanks for sharing guys!
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RIM (I know it's been talked about enough); esp. at current prices. I like it cause I like the chances for BB10 personally; the company seems pretty undervalued (old but pretty good breakdown of the financials: http://www.portfolio14.com/2012/04/research-in-motion-is-absurdly-cheap.html), & of course MR. WATSA owns 9.9% and is on the board of directors (probably the biggest reason I invested).
DL - Danier Leather. Looked into it a while ago. It seems like a stable leather retailer (fully vertically integrated). Largest vertically integrated Leather-only products retailer in the Canadian market. Current selling under BV (but it has been for a while now)... The issue is that there doesn't really seem to be any catalyst for growth (and I don't understand retailers well enough).
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Really? It's not very good? It had some good reviews on Amazon...
Anything in particular that you guys don't like about this book?
Also, "The Halo Effect", is that the one by Phil Rosenzwig?
We have a thread about the Halo Effect here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/books/the-halo-effect-phil-rosenzweig/
I'm sure the Collins book is well-written and well argued, it's just that foundational premise of it is deeply flawed, as explained in the halo effect, so pretty much everything built on top of it is highly suspect.
I see what you mean. I'd like to read it still but I'll consider the points the author raises with a grain of salt. After reading the "The Halo Effect" thread and especially the blurb by "vinod1", I guess the issue is that Collins is looking at some of the correlations of successful businesses and taking them as causations. I'll definitely keep this in mind.
However, it seems to me as though The Halo Effect is more focused on studying the study of business; is this the case?
If so, are there any other good books on building a great business? Or discerning a great business from a good business?
Thanks for the input guys!
Elon Musk Interview on Bloomberg
in General Discussion
Posted
This particular documentary is really good. One of my favorites!