73 Reds

I think Israel prefers a military option and Israel will enforce any US/Iran deal militarily if it must. Its just not objective at all to suggest this exercise has not already been very successful. Iran has been set WAY back. Any attempt to restock nuclear weapons will be immediately (militarily) addressed - either by the US and/or or Israel. I agree that no "deal" with the present Iranian leadership is worth the paper it is written on, but there are other issues at play so a deal of some sort is the likely outcome. Israel's policy about dealing with terrorists is the correct one - don't. Which is why enforcement is probably not as big an issue as you might think.

Mostly true (don't agree that we started any war) but anyone looking at this objectively will recognize that Trump is a one-off President (well, two-off to be precise) and that even if Republicans retain the White House in 2028 with someone like Vance or Rubio, a return to diplomacy will be forthcoming in lieu of Trump's antics. I think Trump was exactly what we needed at precisely the time when we needed him. I don't think that this is what we will need once the immediate issues upon which he was elected have been resolved. Statesmen have a place in US politics. Unfortunately, I don't see any on the Left.

You're right. Its all in the reasoning.

Oh, I think Europe will come around (kicking and screaming, maybe...) Eastern Europe seems more inclined now to see the light but ultimately they'll all do what is in their best interest. In many ways this 2nd Presidential term has been highly valuable in terms of recognizing who we can depend on and who (for the time being) we can't, and who wants to remain a dependent on the US and who doesn't.

Its just a vastly different - and wrong ideology. Even Israel's most ardent enemies from the past recognize that is is utterly feckless to be at war with a Country that doesn't want to be at war with them. They finally understand that superior strength, will and a single objective of survival at all costs cannot be defeated; vastly better intelligence doesn't hurt either. The US and Israel make ideal allies and the rest of the World will be the ultimate beneficiaries if dumb politics doesn't get in the way.

No matter what degree of success we may achieve, the naysayers will always be....well, naysayers. Somehow, on this board some are able to put their short-term thinking aside when it comes to investments even though it is so obvious in their politics. It is no coincidence that two of the most successful countries in the World are also two of the youngest countries that also happen to be best allies. Each may make mistakes but the trajectory always seems to straighten itself out. It seems as if some of the rest of the World is coming around to following our example, though not necessarily countries and/or regions that we would have expected. Maybe in time.

My wife and children all have 401ks allocated 100% to SPY and at some point I might change their allocations but also may just leave them as is (they do have other taxable investments in excess of their 401k balances). Were I close to retirement and in high reliance on a 401k for my retirement, I'd probably cut the allocation in increments as tech/semis become an even higher % of weight and also as valuation rises.

One thing some 401k holders and the like might start thinking about since your point about semis and tech as such a high % of the S&P 500 index holds true: When do folks who have their entire 401k allocated into SPY (my guess is a lot) decide to cut the allocation in order to avoid the inevitable tumble when tech and semis finally reach a top?

Buy more of the stuff you like at reduced prices. Or if you think this time is different, figure out why and profit from it. I don't own index funds but BRK is an acceptable proxy.

Yep, and simple math tells us that if Fairfax merely compounds at its historical rate for the next 2 years, book value will exceed the current market price.

Sure, if the new patterns make them money. Thinking outside the box is always a good thing if it makes you money.

Successful people can admit when they are wrong and learn from their mistakes. The most successful people I have ever known (including 2 billionaires) were lousy students in school and largely self-taught.

Yep. Sanjeev made it real easy for almost anyone - Berkshire and Fairfax. Highly diversified portfolios, great management and cultures, optionality for future growth and if you really want to get picky, select a valuation metric below which you add shares and above which you sit pat. Could it be any simpler than that?

Blake, why don't you consider a modified version of what Buffett has proscribed for his surviving spouse? He has stated that he recommends 90% allocated into an S&P 500 index fund and the other 10% in treasuries. His surviving spouse is old. You are young and could allocate the same 90% into an S&P 500 index fund, and the other 10% into whatever you think makes sense at the time. Even if your 10% doesn't outperform bonds, you'll still do OK rather than worry about current economic factors that in the long run are meaningless.

Yeah, the chart reflects 500 businesses of the time, which also change over time. Which is why set-it-and-forget-it makes sense for most young people.

Indeed, with a long enough time horizon nothing beats owning great businesses. The chart also demonstrates that with a long enough time horizon trying to time the markets is hardly worthwhile for mere mortals.

Figures you think in categories.

Likely to rise over time, particularly once Buffett is no longer around. Assuming Ted stays, he almost has to become Greg's "Charlie".

Kind of surprising that no one (i.e., at the AGM) has asked them about the specific details of the TRS, including when payments are, or must be made.

Does any BRK shareholder but me wish that BRK would initiate its own TRS?

That's a pretty comprehensive summary. One comment re. Geico: Combined ratio "deterioration" from a 7X CR to an 8X CR is hardly unexpected. As Greg stated, any CR that begins with an "8" is a good thing.

Dependency takes on many shapes and forms. Cultural dependency is a very good thing with family members taking care of one another for life. That is very different than nonproductive kids who are products of handouts, participation trophies and laziness. If all you know is entitlement you are basically worthless and a drag on society.

You missed the point. They made poor choices and the results speak for themselves.

Yes, as valuation ( as opposed to price) rises, the TRS becomes more risky. But by having available cash for buybacks, the company can absorb a lot of selling and minimize the downside. That, of course assumes that buybacks make sense and there isn't a legitimate reason for the price drop, in which event TRS exposure would likely be called in or eliminated altogether by management, which has a front-row seat to any such issues prior to the market in general.

As another poster alluded to previously, doesn't some of the risk depend on when, and how often payments must be made? If the stock price drops precipitously and Fairfax has available cash for buybacks, wouldn't that stem the tide of the TRS while also providing a good investment opportunity?