triedtestedand

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/meet-the-certifiably-crazy-fraud-hunting-short-seller-who-taunted-bill-ackman-on-valeant?__lsa=d74f-e89f

Easy answer here: http://quote.morningstar.ca/Quicktakes/owners/MajorShareholders.aspx?t=TMB&region=CAN&culture=en-CA http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2015/06/12/fairfax-announces-acquisition-of-shares-of-tembec Those 19,991,044 Tembec shares were from: WAYZATA INVESTMENT PARTNERS LLC With Steelhead having 12% still, my advice to Tembec mgmt and minority investors ... get a poison pill in place.

Burrows re-signed yesterday evening. http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/hockey/vancouver-canucks/Vancouver+Canucks+sign+more+confident/7244194/story.html

Liberty: His message kind of aligns with what I've been thinking about lately as well. It's not only going to be hard (including hard work), but you're going to need to have the talent for whatever it is that could make you rich, and some luck/providence as well, and even at that it's not guaranteed ... From my own perspective, I've always thought I could focus on one thing in life to be exceptional (presuming I had the talent for that one thing), two things to do very well at it, but after that I'd start to yield performance for balance (e.g. work/life/fun). That said, focusing on that one thing might still not yield the result. I've had time/opportunity to train for a few marathons the past couple of years, and have done (very) well in several ... and yet despite being in way better shape for another, with anticipation/focus of achieving even better performance, flamed out because of the heat (at this year's Boston Marathon). Sounds kind of like investing ... you'll never do spectacularly by diversifying, but the balance has it's own rewards.

Irish property prices go ... UP? First time in 5 years ... http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/25/irish-house-prices-first-monthly-rise

Still not at 66 2/3% ... offer extended until May 17th: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/968639/resolute-owns-63-3-of-fibrek-extends-offer-to-may-17 Battle of wills now.

Power contract signed. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fibrek-signs-historic-contract-hydro-200700924.html Now we wait to see what % tendered, what steelhead did, and what ABH does for a second-step if needed.

<IV: RE: 1) Could an arb fund be buying at $.95 only to tender to ABH to make a quick 5% with virtually no downside -> The ABH press release denotes that for the 2.6M shares tendered, 76K shares were issues, along with $1.5M ... implying that whoever tendered took (in aggregate) the combo of cash+shares (vs cash only), so not sure an arb fund would be keen on such given ABH share price is down >15% since the announcement. RE: 2) Now that Prem, Pabrai are no longer involved in the deal (they've tender already) what to stop them from buying up more open market stock and tendering it to ABH? Nothing that I can think of. The Insider bid stuff did not fly and the original transaction is complete. -> Per the separate ABH thread, it Prem appears to be buying more ABH independently (after saying he wanted all cash - vs cash & shares - for his FBK shares), so not sure what to make of that.

Not yet 50% ... http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/960355/resolute-announces-take-up-of-additional-fibrek-shares-and-extension-of-offer-to-may-4 So Steelhead has not (yet) tendered to ABH ... Now is where I need The Amazing Kreskin. Will Steelhead truly act independently? This is one step towards that (much more than their press release). If so, why would ABH be so confident as to NOT up their bid, and (theoretically) allow MERC to secure 50.1%. From a dark side perspective, what if Steelhead didn't tender to either bid, then went back to ABH in second step and settled for original amount. Also, this drags things out further ... deadline of May 4 means that MERC has to extend their offer beyond that as well, no? Maybe ABH wants to see what # commit to MERC by friday before determining their next move?

That's one scenario (low probability?) ... Steelhead doesn't tender to ABH by monday, so it closes the initial tender from ABH ... but then neither does it tender to MERC, thus killing the MERC deal (who have to keep it open 5 days after ABH deal closes) ... this would then allow ABH to come back after the fact, without competition, and bid for the rest with a bit of a face saving premium (wishful thinking?) Then Steelhead would have legal cover of not working totally in cahoots w ABH ...

Alertmeipp: All MERC needs is 50.1% to get control of the company, and ability to work it onto their books, if even with restrictions. It might be kind of like how Canfor Pulp is 50.1% owned by Canfor (although that's just a thought of top of my head). In this case, instead of public float, the minority shareholdings would then be owned by a single entity -> ABH. Might make for an semi-symbiotic relationship, presuming egos could be tamed. Getting total ownership drops restrictions, allows them to integrate into other operations, flow funds more freely, etc. ... which is likely what would work best with ABH being the total owner -> of course though that should be valued more, eh? ;-) Or maybe MERC gets control, then flips it back to ABH? Now ... back to reality.

Here is what we do ... We see it for what it is ... And we act accordingly. All remaining minority shareholders collectively offer Steelhead an 8% tender "protection fee" in return for their tendering to MERC. That gives them a 100% bonus on top of their regular 40%. The rates are in line w the situation, no? ;)

Note to self: -> As of Mar 30th, 60.3M shares (46.4%) had been deposited to ABH's tender ... 59.5M of those via lockup. -> Between then and market close today, ~2.465M shares of FBK traded (>1/2 of total volume today alone) ... all at prices >$1.03 So ... if any shareholders (other than Steelhead) wanted to dump their FBK shares WITHOUT tendering to ABH's $1/share bid, there has been SOME opportunity to do it ... especially today. I guess there is still after hours ability to tender to ABH bid (it expires at 11:59PM EDT), but would it thus be fair to assume that since Mar 30th, most non-locked-up shareholders (with separate status reserved for our insider-or-independent friends at Steelhead) either: a) have tendered to MERC's (even higher as of today) bid (31M shares/24% had been deposited as of yesterday's close) or b) are still waiting (~40M shares), especially since we haven't heard a cease trade on today's new poison pill, nor Supreme Court appeal

Sorry for the multiple postings ... I pressed send a bit too quickly. The thing of it is ... now that ABH's minimum tender threshold has been reduced ... presuming ABH gets it's 46.5% minimum via lock-up, those shareholders could basically suck up most of the $70M cash component, and secure $1/share without having to get any pro-rata share consideration ... BUT the same goes for the 53.5% that remains, as they could benefit similarly from the MERC minimum 50.1% tender threshold, and get mostly $1.40 per share in cash ... and MERC would control the company, even without the warrants. Wouldn't that be a fun partnership for the two parties, eh? Would seem to be a pretty obvious decision for everyone including Warwick the Kingmaker Steelhead, no? Then, if they really wanted to, they could then turn around with the $9M (6.5M shares x $1.4/share) in proceeds and buy ABH shares at $13 and change (it represents about 2 days worth of ABH trading volume, based on last 3 months transactions) ... Unless of course they were acting in defacto unison w ABH. To quote C&C Music Factory ... "Things that make you go hmmm"

Increased MERC offer, but also NEW shareholder rights plan adopted until May 11: http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/953019/increased-mercer-offer-represents-40-premium-over-abitibi-coercive-unsolicited-bid FFHWatcher -> Looks like MERC is trying to find a way to get someone to take your wager ... ;-) "Wager - I will wager $500 if Fibrek is sold for > or equal to $1.50 (any mix of cash and shares) by the time Sanjeev has the BRK/FFH dinner/April 25th to the The Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of Canada. If it goes for under $1.50, than the person on the other side of the bet has to donate the same amt. Any takers? It is a good cause. If the deal is called off, shareholders will need to preserve their cash. "