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HF - Hanfeng Evergreen


finetrader
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'get a farming degree, learn mandarin and move to Asia that's where all the money is now.'

We know Jim Rogers is a fan of anything related to water and agriculture in China.

His thinking makes a lot of sense for me too.

 

I am a shareholder of Hanfeng since 2005.

-Hanfeng Evergreen is a developer and producer of slow and controlled release (S&CR) fertilizer in China.

-Growth in the last 3 years have been very impressive. Revenue cagr(3yrs)= 70%, Earning cagr(3yrs)=59%

-Growth seems to keep on going:

'Company expects that its expansion in China and Southeast Asia, combined with a proposed entry into North America will provide significant increases in its revenue and net income, increase production to a range of 2.0-2.5 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) and increase operating EBITDA(1) to between $125 and $150 million per annum by 2012.'

 

This compare to capacity of 725,000 metric tons per annum (MTPA) as at March 31, 2009.

 

-HF is the only stock in my portfolio that doesn't seems to be affected by the world recession we are in right now. They just haven't seen any reduction in demand for their products.

-P/E for trailing 12 months= 10

- Balance sheet is good Debt/Equity=15%

-I have been impressed by the management in the last 4 years:

1)They successfully changed their business model from a landscaping contractor to a fertilizer producer.

2)Every time they built a factory, it's been done in time, and respecting budget as planned

3)They are in good term with China's government

4)Whatever they've said they were going to do in the last 4 years, they've done it

 

I think this stock could be at 15$ in three years if not more.

 

I don't think that HF have a moat around his business, but right now they seems to enjoy a few elements that are characteristic of having a  moat:

-Good relationship with China's government: they make research and trial together to find solutions for China agriculture issues

-A big boy in the industry as a shareholder in Agrium (own 20% of HF)

-First mover advantage

 

The reason I am writing this post other than throwing an idea to this board, is that I would like to elaborate on:

-the competitive environment HF is in

-the advantage of S&CR compare to traditional fertilizer

-potential substitute product

but find very few information about it,... or maybe it is because I'm too lazy to find it, or it could be that I don't have enough time for it, but for sure China cannot be considered next door to me as I am living in Montreal  ;)

 

Any suggestions or ideas would be welcome.

 

finetrader

 

n.b. I know that Francis Chou owns or used to own HF

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This looks like a very interesting find based on what I've been reading about the company:

 

-I like their place in the value chain.  Presumably, there's much less government risk making a value added fertilizer product in China where the basic raw materials are purchased from foreign companies.  In fact, it's possible that Hanfeng might benefit from the Chinese government's involvement in bulk commodities purchases.

 

-According to their presentations, their value added product (slow and controlled release fertilizer) is worth the extra premium compared to regular fertizlier because you have to use less of it to get the same (or better) crop yield.  And it is supposed to be more environmentally friendly.  Would be interesting to hear from people who know more about this. 

 

-I like the fact that they are taking a joint venture approach to business in China and Southeast Asia

 

-Based on the Rio Tinto experience, you definitely want to have good relations with the Chinese government, and these guys seem to have it.

 

-I like that they have the "father of hybrid rice" on board with testing their products.

 

-I like that they've been called on by the government to help set standards for slow and controlled release fertilizers.

 

-Their balance sheet looks good, and they're taking advantage of low borrowing rates in China.  We'll see what it looks like after they release their audited 6 month financials.

 

---------

 

So the question I have then is . . . why is it trading at such a low price?  I'm trying to invert and find out what's wrong with this company, but can't figure out what I'm missing.

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  • 1 month later...

To invest in any Chinese based companies, the most important thing to look at is the company's realationship with the goverment. Moreover, you have to be very confident that the company can deal with the goverment successfully in the future. My suggestion is that if you have no idea about those things,  stay away from them. There are plenty cheap stocks to follow.

 

Just not worth it.

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I do business with China everyday but I would not put a penny there. I have horrible problems regularly with their QC for basic things. Which means for me that the success of a company is most likely a gamble unless I visit the company and see what they have in place as a safety net.

 

Also, the accounting rules there are as flexible as they can be...I have no idea how I could validate the information on paper.

 

I like to consider China like the London stock market in the 18th century, it is still unregulated and fraud is probably the norm more then the exception. Population is uneducated in financial which makes it easier for bubbles to appear.

 

BeerBaron

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  • 1 year later...

I just received the annual report 2010 and though it was the right time to shake this post out of the dust.

 

Stock price hasn't move much since last year.

 

Commodity price pressure has kept earning at 0.47$/share.

 

SCR Capacity increased 6%, volume sold increased 4% to 570 065 MT

Average price decreased 23% compared to 2009.

2010 gross profit margin 16%

 

CPU(new product) Volume sold was 108 378 MT, they started to sell it in Q3

CPU is a pass trough product so gross profit margin is lower at 9,8%

 

conclusion: assuming annualized CPU sales and steady commodity price,  pretax earning potential increased 23%

 

I think HF is a good buy at this price:

-P/E= 13

-adjusted P/E (debt-cash )=12

-management think commodity price has bottomed

-management seems honest and competent

-almost every analysts in the world are predicting price appreciation for fertilizer in the long run

-volume capacity growth continues with other projects under way

-long term yuan appreciation

 

 

risk:

higher tax rate

competition

foreign exchange rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

ALSO:

Hanfeng seems to have a very good relationship with the Chinese government. In fact, they are working with Government to set Chinese standards for slow release fertilizer. HF is also now expanding to other South East Asian countries and working with other governments in field tests, the results of which are simply amazing - 25% increased yield, 40% fewer applications, 51% less fertilizer.

 

http://www.hanfengevergreen.com/investor/financial-statements.html?year=2010

 

In a world where the population is exploding, particularly in Asia, food is already becoming an issue. As limited arable land becomes more crucial to the production of food, surely a company that produces a patented product that can substantially increase production and efficiency as shown in the numbers above must have a stellar future. Am I missing something here?

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the fundamental is pretty strong. It is a Buffett style in term of long term holdings. It is not super cheap, but to me it seems priced at 70-80% of IV.

 

there is good evidence that selling volume will continue to increase in the next few years(by opening new plants)

 

Management is doing little things to improve results, ex(buying more raw material in the last quarter because they think price for them has bottomed)

 

I am not concerned about honesty of management. I am a shareholder since 2005. Since then, they have done what they said they were going to do. Dilution has been minimal (other than Agrium  taking a 20% ownership). Growth is financed by cash flow from operation. KPMG is the auditor. CEO owns a big chunk of the company.

 

at P/E=12 , this ratio could appreciate once investors start to realize that E is growing again after a pause.

 

the thesis is that price for fertilizers has declined in China while volume sold for Hanfeng has increased  in 2010, resulting in flat EPS. Volume sold will increase, while price for fertlizer seems to have bottomed and might increase,  resulting in EPS growth.

 

 

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Back a few years ago HF was one of those stocks everyone got overexcited about and drove the price from about $4 to $15 in six months. I had looked at it at around $11 and fortunately was scared off and put the money into FFH instead. But I have watched HF ever since because I always thought that fundamentally it was a solid company with great potential. I bought in about six months ago and agree with finetraders point that this seems to be a pretty good long term hold. Everybody’s gotta eat.

 

The relationship with Agrium is a plus and keeps them honest. To me this seems to be a good way to play the China market while eliminating most of the risk. Because it had such a boom and bust in the stock price back a couple of years ago is probably why the price is not higher than it is. That will pass as they prove themselves and they seem to be doing a good job of that.

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Here is an interesting article for anyone interested in HF.

 

  http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/tsx-firms-look-to-china-hong-kong-for-second-listing/article1790664/

 

Here are a few quotes...

 

"Hanfeng was at the front end of a trend when the Chinese company listed itself on the Toronto Stock Exchange back in 2004. Now, the fertilizer firm could be on the front-end of a new trend, as it considers a second listing in mainland China or Hong Kong."

 

"The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P/TSX composite index is about 20, according to Bloomberg data. The corresponding number for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange composite index is about 40."

 

"“Shandong Kingenta Ecological Engineering Co. Ltd. is very similar company to ours,” Hanfeng chief financial officer Paul Begin said. “Last time I checked, their valuation was somewhere between 25 to 30 times forward-looking earnings per share. Our valuation on the TSX is somewhere around nine or 10.” "

 

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That was a nasty quarter for Hanfeng.  Their 1Q11 report copied below.  You rarely see a company miss consensus estimates by such a wide margin. 

 

It's hard to imagine things are quite as bad as the numbers look but I haven't been able to access the conference call to get further insight into the steep declines.  The rationale provided in their report leaves a number of questions unanswered.  (The low sales volumes and increased inventory is eerily reminiscent of Fibrek!)

 

I'd appreciate any insight from the local experts?

 

-----------------------------------------

 

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Nov. 9, 2010) - Hanfeng Evergreen Inc. ("Hanfeng" or the "Company") (TSX:HF - News) a leading provider of value-add fertilizers in China and South East Asia, today reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 ended September 30, 2010. All amounts are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.

 

Summary Financial Results                  For the three month period ended

 

(in thousands in $Cdn except

percentages and per share data)          Sep 30, 2010        Sep 30, 2009

                                                                           

Sales                                                            $      42,605      $        55,100

Gross profit                                                            5,083                8,811

EBITDA(1)                                                              4,503                8,114

Net Income                                                            2,438                6,102

Basic EPS                                                                0.04                0.10

Diluted EPS                                                              0.04                0.10

 

 

Sales revenue in the first quarter was $42.6 million, compared to $55.1 million in the comparable period in 2009. The decline was the result of several factors including the impact of seasonality, annual maintenance shut-downs at the Company's production facilities, approximately 30,000 metric tonnes ("MT") of slow and controlled release fertilizers ("SCR") produced for the new joint venture entered into with Beidahuang Agricultural Company Limited ("the Distribution JV") but not shipped during the quarter, and foreign exchange, partially offset by a year-over-year increase in CarbonPower® coated urea ("CPU") sales volumes. EBITDA was $4.5 million versus $8.1 million in the comparable period in 2009. Net income was $2.4 million for the current quarter compared to $6.1 million in the same period in 2009 due to lower realized margins on CPU and the aforementioned factors. Earnings per share ("EPS") was

.04 for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 compared to

.10 for the first quarter ended September 30, 2009.

 

SCR

 

The actual production volume of SCR in the first quarter of 2011 decreased by 26,105 tonnes or 22 percent from the first quarter of fiscal 2010. The decrease in SCR production was primarily due to the requirement to shut down the NPK production line at the Jiangsu facility for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 due to the unusually hot weather. In prior years, the NPK production line at the Jiangsu facility was shut down for only a number of weeks due to the hot weather. In addition, the first quarter of the fiscal year is historically the slowest sales season and consequently, annual maintenance shut downs are performed at all of the locations.

 

SCR finished goods on hand at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2011 was 45,931 MT, 29,204 MT higher than the finished goods inventory on hand of 16,733 MT at June 30, 2010. The increase in finished goods inventory is the result of reserving inventory for expected future deliveries to the Distribution JV. In the prior quarters, finished goods were delivered to distributors in advance of the peak selling season. Going forward, the Company expects more seasonality as a result of the Distribution JV. As a result of reserving finished goods for the Distribution JV and lower SCR production due to the aforementioned reasons, sales volume in the first quarter of fiscal 2011 was 63,632 MT versus 122,805 MT sold in the first quarter of fiscal 2010.

 

In the first quarter of fiscal 2011, Hanfeng's average selling price of SCR decreased to Renminbi ("RMB") 2,592 per MT, down RMB 201 per MT or 7 percent, compared to RMB 2,793 per MT achieved in the first quarter of 2010. Average selling price was relatively unchanged from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010. The reduction in selling price year over year is mainly due the product mix of SCR sold in the current quarter versus the comparative period. The Company's multi-nutrient products like coated NPK typically have a higher selling price than single nutrient products such as sulfur coated urea (SCU).

 

Gross profit for SCR on a per MT basis in the first quarter of 2011 was RMB 429, a 4 percent decrease from the comparative period last year. Gross profit for SCR per MT in the first quarter of fiscal 2011 was consistent with the gross profit for SCR per MT in the preceding quarter (Q4 2010).

 

Combined with the annual production capacity from the recently completed 150,000 MTPA facility in Indonesia and the repurchase of Agrium Inc.'s interest in the Shanxi joint venture (see "Recent Business Highlights"), the Company now has approximately 826,000 MTPA in SCR design capacity.

 

CPU

 

During the first quarter of fiscal 2011, Hanfeng sold 54,184 tonnes of the new CarbonPower® coated urea product ("CPU"), a 25 percent decrease over the 72,116 tonnes sold in the previous quarter as a result of seasonality. Hanfeng began commercial sales of CPU in the third quarter of fiscal 2010 after securing the exclusive supply and distribution agreement with FBSciences, Inc. in November 2009.

 

The average selling price on CPU in the first quarter of fiscal 2011 was RMB 2,078 per metric ton, up 3 percent from RMB 2,012 per ton in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010 due to a marginal increase in urea prices. Gross profit per metric ton for CPU was RMB 107 versus RMB 207 in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010 due to selling a diluted version of CPU. The Company was producing a product with a lower CarbonPower® content in order to satisfy demand and preserve inventory while awaiting additional shipments which are expected to arrive in the near term. Hanfeng has in the past experienced some importation delays due to the nature of the CarbonPower® product and the sensitivity in China regarding biological products being imported into China. The Company is continuing to identify the most efficient manner in which to import the CarbonPower® product but does expect to continue to experience some delays. The Company is currently in the process of registering the product with the proper authorities in China. Once completed, this is expected to standardize the importation procedures.

 

The average foreign exchange rate (i.e., RMB to CAD dollar) in the first quarter of fiscal 2011 was 6.51 compared with 6.22 in the first quarter of 2010, representing a 5 percent appreciation in the Canadian dollar. Even though Hanfeng earns almost all of its revenue and pays almost all of its suppliers in RMB, it reports its financial results in Canadian dollars. The appreciation of the Canadian dollar over the reporting period had a negative impact on revenue and gross profits reported in Canadian dollars

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There is a good discussion on the Stockhouse board about HF today.

 

I have been looking at HF as a relatively long term hold but this is not going to do much for the confidence of investors. The best spin I can put on this is that it should make next year's Q1 look really good! - I hope.

 

I wonder if the surplus in inventory shown here and with FBK is an indication that things are not as healthy in the economy as we might think. Might this be a trend that we will see where more product is being produced right now than being consumed?

 

I am invested here primarily because of the perception that there should be an increasing demand for a product that can improve and increase crop production in a country with a limited agricultural land area and an ever increasing demand for agricultural products. Perhaps I am oversimplifying this, or perhaps HF is just not as good a company as I thought it was. However, I still think there has to be a lot of potential here. Then again I have been invested in FBK for the same reason. I wonder how many of us are invested in both companies?

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There is a good discussion on the Stockhouse board about HF today.

 

I have been looking at HF as a relatively long term hold but this is not going to do much for the confidence of investors. The best spin I can put on this is that it should make next year's Q1 look really good! - I hope.

 

I wonder if the surplus in inventory shown here and with FBK is an indication that things are not as healthy in the economy as we might think. Might this be a trend that we will see where more product is being produced right now than being consumed?

 

I am invested here primarily because of the perception that there should be an increasing demand for a product that can improve and increase crop production in a country with a limited agricultural land area and an ever increasing demand for agricultural products. Perhaps I am oversimplifying this, or perhaps HF is just not as good a company as I thought it was. However, I still think there has to be a lot of potential here. Then again I have been invested in FBK for the same reason. I wonder how many of us are invested in both companies?

 

Thanks for the Stockhouse pointer.  I generally avoid that spam dungeon but you're right - good discussion on HF.

 

I still haven't heard the conference call, but I can't see how they could possibly explain these results to a satisfactory degree.  There's no excuse for the lack of communication leading up to this.  At the very least they should have offered some guidance in the previous report, as regards the shutdown and planned inventory build up etc. 

 

I'd like to see management looking after current shareholders before they spend much time arranging a listing on another exchange.  In the recent Globe article, the CEO was complaining about their low valuation.  That's pretty rich, given what he knew was coming down the pike.  It doesn't inspire confidence.

 

All that said, there's a lot to like about HF.  The JVs *should* be very promising.  I hope some further digging will provide more complete rationale for these recent results.  Please share if you find anything!

 

 

 

 

 

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Well the stock price has certainly taken a beating since the results came out and analysts are falling all over themselves cutting back their ratings, most to a "hold". But wouldn't one think that if these analysts were any good they would have cut their ratings before the results came out rather than after? That's a bit like the weather office telling us what the weather is going to be yesterday. Hopefully this is just a bad quarter. Perhaps the unshipped product has been, or will be, sold and certainly the seasonal aspect of the industry would have an effect. It is just a little troubling that management didn't give a few more details. I am still optimistic about this long term and am now wondering if it is time to look at adding. One thing that time has taught me is that everything tends to overreact and I wonder if the pendulum will swing the other way in a day or so?

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Well the stock price has certainly taken a beating since the results came out and analysts are falling all over themselves cutting back their ratings, most to a "hold". But wouldn't one think that if these analysts were any good they would have cut their ratings before the results came out rather than after? That's a bit like the weather office telling us what the weather is going to be yesterday. Hopefully this is just a bad quarter. Perhaps the unshipped product has been, or will be, sold and certainly the seasonal aspect of the industry would have an effect. It is just a little troubling that management didn't give a few more details. I am still optimistic about this long term and am now wondering if it is time to look at adding. One thing that time has taught me is that everything tends to overreact and I wonder if the pendulum will swing the other way in a day or so?

 

Did you listen to the CC?  Only the Dundee securities guy really gave the CFO a round of tough questions. 

 

As much as I don't have a tonne of respect for analysts, I have to say that in this case they couldn't possibly have seen this coming.  How would they guess that the company would shut down a big piece of production for an entire quarter and NOT inform anyone about it?

 

I think there's a communication issue between the Toronto office and the operations in China.  I wasn't particularly impressed with the fluency of the CFO on operational matters.  Check out the CC and see what you think.

 

I believe there's good value here.  Just not at all impressed with their behaviour.

 

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Last quarter was very bad!

The communication to investor was weak. Of course when things go well, it is easier to communicate update on the company!!

(Easier to issue a press release promoting a plant new opening, than annoncing a shutdown)

 

There are 3 issues that affected results:

-Plant shutdown because of weather

-delayed delivery of CPU product

-inventory buildup due to reserving for the Distribution JV

 

Are these temporary or permanent problems?

I think they are temporary, but this is a test for management to show in the next quarters what they can do so that this company moves products more efficiently in the future.

 

By listening to management, demand side seems to be ok

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This is a company that has been on my radar for a few years (when I saw it was a holding of Francis Chow's). I did a bit of a deep dive and read the Q report and listened to the conf call.

 

The quarter was an unmitigated PR disaster. Finetrader, you have already documented the  three issues they had in the Q. At the same time they also look to be moving into the big leagues; this is when many companies blow up.

 

What I like:

1.) business concept

2.) no debt

3.) new Indonesia facility is shipping product (diversifying business)

4.) despite the serious issues, Q1 delivered $0.04 net profit

 

What I don't like:

1.) uncertainty around plant issue (my guess is they get it fixed)

2.) uncertainty around importation of CPU product

3.) putting many eggs in Distribution JV

 

If you think management is good to great then this one could turn around quickly and really deliver strong results (over next 12 months). I do expect the next quarter to also be a challenge as they work through production issues and continue to stockpile for

the Distribution JV. I wonder also how much of the production issues they are having are because of China. Interesting risk reward tradeoff and not something I would want to invest a ton of money in (but perhaps a little). 

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I am not that concerned about selling volumes, I mean, they keep building new plants and demand for fertilizer in China and other Asian countries is a pretty good long term bet.

 

But I'm more concerned on the margin side. Since the've opted to make a lot of business with Beidahuang Agricultural Company , I'm wondering if there could be margin pressure in having to share it with them. Having 'JV' with them seems like a good idea though, so that they can keep the same margin and share volume with them.

Also competition could add pressure on margin as well in other markets.

 

Agree that Hanfeng is sort of moving into the big leagues and they could get caught in a situation where they would have less price-setting power by being dictated how to behave by bigger players.

 

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Hello. Complete newbie to the board and investing, so pardon in advance.

 

 

Regarding "long" china stock, even if it's foreign owned:  can the main products that they produce be copied by local companies in the long term?  This would be my main concern and it would increase if they would go into a JV where they might find themselves pushed out eventually. Is there any reason for the Chinese to purchase it from a foreign company instead of it being produced by an SOE?

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  • 2 months later...

I noticed HF is down 7% or so today (after a big run up). Stock is trading back at levels post Q1 release (which was quite bad, as has been dicussed in posts above). I can't seem to find any news ecplaining the recent sell off? Perhaps a downgrade from somewhere prior to earnings to be released on Feb 10?

 

For those new to HF click on the Corporate Presentation on their web page: http://www.hanfengevergreen.com/investor/stock-quote.html

 

I do expect Q2 results to have a lot of noise:

1.) inventories may go much much higher: their JV will not take delivery of product until Q3 (Jan-Mch). Even though this has been communicated by management the size of the inventory build may surprise many; at a minimum it will result in poor comps to prior year.

2.) production issues at Jiangsu NPK facility: looks like they have a solution in place; being converted to liquid fertilizer. Company will take non-cash $5 million charge and said: "We fully expect that the replacement of the Prill Tower production with the high value-added liquid fertilizer products will be accretive to future earnings."

3.) importation of CPU product: also in the Dec 20 news release - "Hanfeng is also pleased to announce that it has received its scheduled shipment of CarbonPower® without delay. As previously reported, the Company had experienced some importation challenges with the product and had recently taken steps to improve the process. Hanfeng expects that the steps taken to date including the establishment of the China JV will address future importation issues." Doesn't sound like they have a permanent fix in place yet, but at lease some clarity that is positive.

4.) Indonesia joint venture: commissioned in October so we should see some positive impact on earnings (they own 34%)

 

When I weave it all together I see lots of opportunity for disappointment in Q2 results (headline risk driven by inventory build). However, for those investors who don't mind volatility and with the shares around $5.20 I like the return potential as the company posts Q3 and Q4 results (3 to 6 months out). Management has a pretty decent track record, they own 20% percent of the company, they are very plugged in to the government, and they have an enormous number of irons in the fire. And I  love the industry they are in. Perhaps a nice place to park some 'play money'.

 

 

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I think there was a downgrade from Scotia Capital -- target price reduced to $6.00.  Don't know the prev. target. 

 

I'm pretty convinced Q2 will be ugly.  I had been meaning to sell based on the runup from 4.85 to 6.15 but never "got around to it".

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Q2 results were released yesterday and they were disappointing, similar to Q1. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hanfeng-Announces-Second-ccn-1605679790.html?x=0&.v=1

 

The good:

1.) appears supply issues with CPU are almost behind them. On the conference call CEO said provincial has been received; awaiting national approval (easier approval) and should happen in next month.

2.) most of the issues look to be short term in nature and solvable (i.e. they are working through surprise issues from Q1 release although it is taking time).

3.) will likely continue buying back shares as they have the cash and the authorization in place.

 

The bad:

1.) Q1 results were worse than extected: sold a chunk of product to Beidahuang at a big discount which impacted margins.

2.) large 'surprise' issues happening 2 quarters in a row... bad luck or a trend?

 

I like the potential of this company and the solid financial footing they have in place. The next two quarters (fertilizer selling season) will be interesting to follow: do they start delivering or do the issues continue...  Execution will be more important than ever!

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