frommi Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Sold KMI today. Makes no sense to hold if i can`t fully decide if its cheap or expensive here and i am not comfortable with my valuation on the dividend yield. I want to build a clean value portfolio at the end of october, and this has probably no place in it with its massive market cap. Also trimmed some of my put positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 BRKB Expect 12% ROE long-term and it is near fair value. There are a lot of potential investments forming so I wanted more cash. My portfolio is now 25% cash, 35% micro-caps (because I think they are uncorrelated to market - my version of workout given portfolio size), 40% long-term holdings/forever stocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frank Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 BRKB My portfolio is now 25% cash, 35% micro-caps (because I think they are uncorrelated to market - my version of workout given portfolio size), 40% long-term holdings/forever stocks. As any long-time practioner in the micro-cap space would probably have told you, these stocks are not uncorrelated to market, but they are just slow to react to broader market movements, both on the upside and on the downside. However, when they do react, they react hard and one will likely suffer tremendous mark-to-market losses (i.e. in a market panic). Therefore, I wouldn't necessarily treat these as workouts, unless there are clear catalysts to unlock value in a imaginable time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Schwab711 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 BRKB My portfolio is now 25% cash, 35% micro-caps (because I think they are uncorrelated to market - my version of workout given portfolio size), 40% long-term holdings/forever stocks. As any long-time practioner in the micro-cap space would probably have told you, these stocks are not uncorrelated to market, but they are just slow to react to broader market movements, both on the upside and on the downside. However, when they do react, they react hard and one will likely suffer tremendous mark-to-market losses (i.e. in a market panic). Therefore, I wouldn't necessarily treat these as workouts, unless there are clear catalysts to unlock value in a imaginable time frame. Thanks for the comment and I would generally agree with you, micro-caps generally are tied to the market but with lower volume/higher volatility. My reason for calling them workouts (I have another small cap in the forever section) is because my investment thesis is not tied to a change in price multiple since volume is so low. My bet is on the business and that the turnaround will continue, thus the return will come from an increase in intrinsic value and future earnings power. Looking back on it, 'Workout' probably isn't the correct term to use, but I do see my ownership in this company as more of a private equity-type investment where I do not expect to be able to flip it at higher multiples nor receive dividends for a few years while I wait for the business to progress. Looking at the past price history for the issue, I have a reasonable belief that the price is decoupled from the market as a whole and will generally reflect the current and future business prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Sold all puts today. I noticed that i got back to my old behaviour instead of following the plan to just be protected from june->october. It was really hard to do this and i struggled with this decision for one or two weeks now. Whats a bit silly is that i could have liquidated the positions on the start of november with a gain but because i waited so long it came out with a loss. My strategy was to sell half of the put positions when they doubled and that worked very well. The last 6 weeks were like a complete rollercoaster for me from feeling like genius in the middle of october (outperformance against the S&P was 15% at that point) to feeling like a fool now (-7% against the S&P ). I think i was just fucking greedy in october and that has cost me money and sleep. Writing this helped me feel a little better so thanks for reading. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merkhet Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Old behavior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Old behavior? Too much wave counting, technical analysis and being a perma bear. Especially the last is a handicap that i can`t get rid of so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Too much wave counting, technical analysis and being a perma bear. Especially the last is a handicap that i can`t get rid of so easily. I haven't succeeded in reaching this level of zen detachment yet, but have you tried not looking at the market as much? Or at least, cutting out almost all financial news. Guy Spier has some interesting ideas on this (shutting down his bloomberg terminal and keeping it in a different room, only looking at prices when the market is closed, only looking once a week or whatever, etc)? Maybe this can help with all those problems, even without going as far as someone like Spier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpadebet Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 MBI Swapped it for JPM warrants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965) What made you sell Fujimak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Sold all puts today. I noticed that i got back to my old behaviour instead of following the plan to just be protected from june->october. It was really hard to do this and i struggled with this decision for one or two weeks now. Whats a bit silly is that i could have liquidated the positions on the start of november with a gain but because i waited so long it came out with a loss. My strategy was to sell half of the put positions when they doubled and that worked very well. The last 6 weeks were like a complete rollercoaster for me from feeling like genius in the middle of october (outperformance against the S&P was 15% at that point) to feeling like a fool now (-7% against the S&P ). I think i was just fucking greedy in october and that has cost me money and sleep. Writing this helped me feel a little better so thanks for reading. :) My experience with buying puts has been pretty poor. I have only ever used them to hedge, not to deliberately short anything. Usually what happens is the market or stock goes up a little after a put purchase. A few weeks lapses, the market tanks, and the puts dont even get back to the level I paid for them. It is said that 70% of options expire worthless. I am *guessing* that puts probably expire worthless in 90-95% of cases. I have tried every permutation of buying puts and have found this to nearly always be the case. So, I find I am better at disciplining myself to move to cash, rather than buy puts. The problem here is the tax man. One day I need to sit down and do a tax versus losses on puts comparison. But, I am pretty sure that my losses from puts will exceed the taxes on selling gains by a long shot. The obvious answer to puts that nearly always expire is to sell puts, of course. This needs to be done with a very careful eye. I have goofed this side up badly at extremely bad times, or with really bad stock choices (re: RIMM). I may have got the hang of it now with much smaller positions and more careful choices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gokou3 Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 Trimmed my long positions in KMI by selling all of my 2016 $30 strike calls. Keeping the 2017 warrants. Still long-term bullish on KMI, but wanted to take some profits amid the market making new highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sethatk Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 LMCK Swapped into LMCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965) What made you sell Fujimak? The primary reason is for a tax loss. I actually think I almost broken even in yen, but the yen has depreciated from 95 per USD to 116 today so I am down 20% or so. I used a bit of the proceeds to buy Riken Keiki (7734). But in 2weeks it will be 30 days since I sold so I can buy back in. I just might. Mind you this is after they revised their loss estimate from -39yen to -16yen. What do you think about Fujimak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writser Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 KCLI, ITIC, Fujimak (TSE:5965) What made you sell Fujimak? The primary reason is for a tax loss. I actually think I almost broken even in yen, but the yen has depreciated from 95 per USD to 116 today so I am down 20% or so. I used a bit of the proceeds to buy Riken Keiki (7734). But in 2weeks it will be 30 days since I sold so I can buy back in. I just might. Mind you this is after they revised their loss estimate from -39yen to -16yen. What do you think about Fujimak? As far as I can see it is still very cheap so I was surprised about you selling. I figured you had some new insights and was wondering what I had missed. I live in a country where we have a net worth tax as opposed to a capital gains tax so I always forget to consider the tax angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrholty Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 As I posted in the 2014 results thread the past three years have been humbling to me to say the least. Since that post I started to close out positions of my weird investments: I closed out my position in REPR before their earnings were released last night for a nice gain. Sales growth was very healthy but the prior 2 quarters expenses had grown as fast/faster and therefore there was no leverage showing up in the business. In December their prereleased strong sales growth for the current Q but nothing on the expense side which has caused a run up before earnings. The stock is down 16% today on high volume for it as people are coming to the same conclusion as I did back in December when I was not confident that it would translate. Its now trading at 18x earning and probably will be over 20x after the 4th quarter. Mgmt doesn't seem like they want to sell out which is what the end game should be as the sales growth should be enticing to somebody in the space as they should be able to cut SG&A drastically. Since my first post here I've also closed out my positions in ABTL, KIQ and GLDD and 50% of my Lands End (LE). To be honest I interviewed with Lands End corporate right before their spinoff from Sears and while I declined the job I saw from the employees the optimism in charting their own way and could hear the problems of being under Sears meant to them. Increasing my cash positions will hopefully make me think clearer and eliminate the bias I have in anchoring. Other positions I have in OESX and GLGI and a few others I continue to hold through the next earnings call. Those results will help me. To be honest - I'm pretty much done in the microcap space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Maybe foolishly sold out of my EUROB for a quick 45%+ gain at the end of last week. My very large holding in Intralot made me nervous about losing gains in either name. Also sold a part of my NTLS holding last week after buying a lot more in the $4.4 range recently. Still hold a good position. Lesson: Patience is improving but I really have to learn to let winners run. Should have learned this by now! Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted May 4, 2015 Author Share Posted May 4, 2015 Maybe foolishly sold out of my EUROB for a quick 45%+ gain at the end of last week. My very large holding in Intralot made me nervous about losing gains in either name. Also sold a part of my NTLS holding last week after buying a lot more in the $4.4 range recently. Still hold a good position. Lesson: Patience is improving but I really have to learn to let winners run. Should have learned this by now! Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :( Have you looked at Bank of Cyprus? This is similar to Eurobank except that this should be safer. Wilbur Ross owns 19% of this company. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bocr-at-bank-of-cyprus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Bought Outerwall last week and SMA Solar today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :( After selling NTLS I'm "stuck" with 33% cash. Don't feel like buying large caps with maybe 50% upside or compounders that are decently priced either. This too requires patience I guess. Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys. Have you looked at Bank of Cyprus? This is similar to Eurobank except that this should be safer. Wilbur Ross owns 19% of this company. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bocr-at-bank-of-cyprus/ Only briefly but it didn't seem as attractive at first sight. In hindsight of course neither was Eurobank! Definitely was lucky there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I sold GOOG and PCLN today. I almost hit the sell button on Google after earnings at $640. At $673 and 31x earnings? No thank you. PCLN is similar for me. With the China news this morning, I'm not seeing PCLN getting a currency tailwind any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys. I don't see any obvious buys. Fairfax and BRK are closest to being buys for me... Well, maybe oil sector, but that's also not obvious. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Berkshire and Fairfax are in the realm of reasonable valuation. Very hard to tell whether they could deliver outperformance at this point so I'll stay away. Berkshire was very obviously cheap for almost 5 full years (!!) and isn't really now. No point in lowering my investing standards just because there are no alternatives imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gary17 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Tom did you look at RX (Biosyent) , DAP-U (XPEL) - great micro-caps trading at reasonable valuation in my opinion. decent CEO... I believe RX still expects 35% growth and 50% for XPEL they have been growing without debt or equity financing - a ver attractive figure for me (also why I like BRK and CSU... great companies don't need to issue shares or take on significant debt). Gary Also starting to run out of ideas, especially in the US. Seeing very little that I could invest 20%+ of my portfolio in and that offers 100%+ potential without too much risk. :( After selling NTLS I'm "stuck" with 33% cash. Don't feel like buying large caps with maybe 50% upside or compounders that are decently priced either. This too requires patience I guess. Am I alone in having this problem? Many seem to be buying hand over fist. I just don't see many obvious buys. Have you looked at Bank of Cyprus? This is similar to Eurobank except that this should be safer. Wilbur Ross owns 19% of this company. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bocr-at-bank-of-cyprus/ Only briefly but it didn't seem as attractive at first sight. In hindsight of course neither was Eurobank! Definitely was lucky there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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