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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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Bought back my January 2023 KKR $60 PUTS for a loss then wrote $47 puts for July 15 2022. I'm hoping to either get PUT the stock, or at least be able to generate some options income on these super short term puts while the volatility is so high.. 

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On 7/11/2022 at 4:13 PM, Gregmal said:

I dont care for management but this was shook up via the previous activist campaign and its essentially a low hanging fruit for an acquirer or future activist. Jersey City and Park Ridge are absolutely good assets given the supply constraints for the great NYC region. Especially the suburbs. I know the Morristown area especially well, and thats similar to Park Ridge. There's takers for these assets all day long, 8 days a week. Office is what I hate. Land I like but theyre trying to unload it. Ill have to stomach the vomit inducing woke verbiage for a bit, but I think from these levels this is super interesting vs at $17 it was good enough for a smaller position but also not unique enough to pound the table. 

 

What I'd watch and dislike is the idea these guys think theyre gonna grow a MF REIT. Get the fuck outta town LOL. Especially with your shares at 40% NAV.

Greg, what do you think the company looks like in 2023?  I think that 2023 will look as follows:

a) Office + hotel + development gone

b) Debt + repurchase obligations ($532MM) = $1.25bn on 12/31/2022

c) Existing stabilized multifamily = $140-$145MM of EBITDA

d) Haus25 = $40MM rent roll and $28MM of EBITDA

e) Park ridge = $5MM of EBITDA

f) s/o + all opco units + options = 100MM

g) Fair value of our interest in joint ventures = $250MM

h) Corporate SG&A = $20MM per annum.

 

Please let me know if I am missing something or you disagree

Edited by Dinar
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30 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Greg, what do you think the company looks like in 2023?  I think that 2023 will look as follows:

a) Office + hotel + development gone

b) Debt + repurchase obligations ($532MM) = $1.25bn on 12/31/2022

c) Existing stabilized multifamily = $140-$145MM of EBITDA

d) Haus25 = $40MM rent roll and $28MM of EBITDA

e) Park ridge = $5MM of EBITDA

f) s/o + all opco units + options = 100MM

g) Fair value of our interest in joint ventures = $250MM

h) Corporate SG&A = $20MM per annum.

 

Please let me know if I am missing something or you disagree

I’m driving so at quick glance your figures are in the right ballpark. NAV range is like 23-32, IMO. The key assumptions I think you have to make involve the dispositions and pace thereof. Then there’s reinvestment in idk. I’m not entirely sold on the credibility of this being a worthy long term investment. But from here into year end, as long as multifamily stays solid which it will, you’ve got a good risk reward skew. During that time you pay attention to management and see if they earn some trust. I have not really been impressed so far. They’re pretty unspectacular. I wouldn’t say bad, just nothing special. 

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9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I’m driving so at quick glance your figures are in the right ballpark. NAV range is like 23-32, IMO. The key assumptions I think you have to make involve the dispositions and pace thereof. Then there’s reinvestment in idk. I’m not entirely sold on the credibility of this being a worthy long term investment. But from here into year end, as long as multifamily stays solid which it will, you’ve got a good risk reward skew. During that time you pay attention to management and see if they earn some trust. I have not really been impressed so far. They’re pretty unspectacular. I wouldn’t say bad, just nothing special. 

Thank you, I agree with you.  My biggest fear is lousy capital allocation and high SG&A.  I guess there is always a chance that Jonathan Gray comes in.

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1 minute ago, Dinar said:

Thank you, I agree with you.  My biggest fear is lousy capital allocation and high SG&A.  I guess there is always a chance that Jonathan Gray comes in.

Everyone public traded, with good MF assets, hears the big boy footsteps coming for them. They wake up in the middle of the night screaming “sold to Blackstone!”. Additionally Bow street already did much of the heavy lifting. CEOs previous job got taken out as well. I think it’s a good play at $12.

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On 1/27/2022 at 7:44 PM, perulv said:

Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. 

 

On 1/27/2022 at 9:00 PM, Spekulatius said:

I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space.

 

Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do.

 

LRCX is down 25% since this. If I click the buy(more)-button it will probably go down another 25%, but I just cant help salivating over the long term metrics. Great business on sale, or mean reversion of too-good-to-be-true ROA and growth?

 

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Canadian oil juniors: MEG, WCP, ERF, TVE

 

Earlier today MEG was off 8%. Oil finished the day flat. Oil stocks are getting crushed and oil is… trading at $96. Oil companies are raking in the free cash flow. Moving forward more and more of the significant free cash flow will be going to share buybacks. And with the shares getting crushed that will be a very good use of cash. This is a very good set up for shareholders. 

Edited by Viking
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9 hours ago, Seoshin said:

May I ask whats your thesis with BAM?

 

Look... (As Bruce Flatt says before every statement)

 

1. Significant amount of capital waiting to be deployed. The current market environment provides management an opportunity to take advantage of market dislocation. Here is one large acquisition they just announced today: https://www.reuters.com/business/deutsche-telekom-announces-175-bln-euro-sale-tower-business-2022-07-14/
2. Uses 25-30% of it's own capital to invest alongside clients to ensure interests are aligned.  This gives me some comfort they will be cautious to not overpay for acquisitions
3. Real estate: High quality spaces are highly sought after and rents are up ~30% pre-pandemic
4. Superstar management team with a goal to compound at 20% going forward
5. Macro view on inflation: When there is inflation, revenue increase greater than expenses and more drops to the bottom line and over time it compounds. Inflation is very positive for real assets. 

 

I can keep on going but BAM is a undervalued high quality company who owns core backbone infrastructure which can compound at high rates for decades.  Its my favourite type of business to own.   btw: I just added to my position earlier in the morning.  

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@WFF

 

Care to share your thesis on 1658.HK ? I am curious ....I kind of came across this today via a different route.

 

I am looking at Ping An after a recent sell off and remembered some mention of Li Lu/Himalaya possibly owning it. I look at the 2021 Annual report for Ping An to see if he owned it but it does not show up, its possible that Ping An is so big that he is not a top 10 shareholder (usually they list only top 10 in the annual reports).

 

However, he did get listed as a 6% holder on the Postal Savings bank of China annual report (2020 and 2021). He seems to have increased the stake slightly from 2020 to 2021 and ofcourse the recent slide has me curious.

 

Is the slide purely due to this mortgage non-payment issues ? Its hard to believe such a huge drop over some $20M HKD exposure...would appreciate your thoughts.

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