What are you buying today?

[Dave86ch]

META, BTC

[ourkid8]

A bit more RFP, its now a full position around ~6% of my portfolio.  

[no_free_lunch]

Bought a medium position in gold miner BTO.TO.  The stock is down almost 50% from last year and now trades 10-12x earnings and pays a 4% dividend.  It is a lower cost producer and has a conservative balance sheet.  Also one of the few gold miners I have found that has actually grown since the 2007-2008 peak.

Edited June 21, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[ICUMD]

Added to BAM.A 

[Spekulatius]

50 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Added to BAM.A 

That's a shoe in <pun>. Added some META.

[DooDiligence]

More Disney. Trying to get more Google sub $2100 but it won't cooperate. Should've just bought more when it was there.

[Kupotea]

Took a full 10% allocation in MSGE at sub $51. There's nothing better than a stock with covered downside and significant upside optionality.

[changegonnacome]

HSW

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Kupotea said:

Took a full 10% allocation in MSGE at sub $51. There's nothing better than a stock with covered downside and significant upside optionality.

Agree. I’m kinda at a loss for what the case is here on the downside? City pays then double the EV to relocate? Tao itself puts up a 10% FCF figure? Sphere gets 20% of market cap for naming rights? Weird all around. 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Gregmal

[RedLion]

I've been adding to BX over the last few trading sessions in the low 90s. Would like to build this into a big core position especially if it keeps going down closer in valuation to the other alt managers. 

 

Seeing a lot of other companies I've been interested in that I think are buys right now.

 

META/GOOGL/AXP/WMT/LEN.B/MO 

 

May be adding to these soon, I've been trying to hold onto more cash for this downturn and add in a more measured pace until we see how far the FED goes with interest rates, and when and where the forced selling starts. 

 

 

[Gregmal]

13 minutes ago, RedLion said:

I've been adding to BX over the last few trading sessions in the low 90s. Would like to build this into a big core position especially if it keeps going down closer in valuation to the other alt managers. 

 

Seeing a lot of other companies I've been interested in that I think are buys right now.

 

META/GOOGL/AXP/WMT/LEN.B/MO 

 

May be adding to these soon, I've been trying to hold onto more cash for this downturn and add in a more measured pace until we see how far the FED goes with interest rates, and when and where the forced selling starts. 

 

 

Oils come down, crypto done, stocks way down, every commodity has come down, but they’re still hand waving about CPI. Soon it seems they’ll say the effectively solved the problem. 

[fareastwarriors]

35 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Agree. I’m kinda at a loss for what the case is here on the downside? City pays then double the EV to relocate? Tao itself puts up a 10% FCF figure? Sphere gets 20% of market cap for naming rights? Weird all around. 

 

 

Picked up more MSGE too. 

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

MSGE and EPSN adds

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, RedLion said:

I've been adding to BX over the last few trading sessions in the low 90s. Would like to build this into a big core position especially if it keeps going down closer in valuation to the other alt managers. 

 

Seeing a lot of other companies I've been interested in that I think are buys right now.

 

META/GOOGL/AXP/WMT/LEN.B/MO 

 

May be adding to these soon, I've been trying to hold onto more cash for this downturn and add in a more measured pace until we see how far the FED goes with interest rates, and when and where the forced selling starts. 

 

 

I would not touch MO (Altria) with a ten foot pole

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

I would not touch MO (Altria) with a ten foot pole

That one could become a cigarette butt literally.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Spekulatius

[RedLion]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

I would not touch MO (Altria) with a ten foot pole

 

I sold my position a few months ago into the strength for around a 10% long term capital gain and reinvested the money in other areas (that are all underwater right now). I am conflicted, I think the valuation is solid, Juul is a non issue, they've always managed to raise their prices faster than they lose customers, but that certainly seems to be slowing down. If FDA cuts nicotine by 95% in cigarettes, maybe that would be the final nail in the coffin. Are you opposed to tobacco investments generally, or Altria in particular because of its huge exposure to the US regulatory risk?

[Parsad]

Lots of ATCO - Atlas Corp.  Cheap, cheap, cheap!  Cheers!

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, RedLion said:

 

I sold my position a few months ago into the strength for around a 10% long term capital gain and reinvested the money in other areas (that are all underwater right now). I am conflicted, I think the valuation is solid, Juul is a non issue, they've always managed to raise their prices faster than they lose customers, but that certainly seems to be slowing down. If FDA cuts nicotine by 95% in cigarettes, maybe that would be the final nail in the coffin. Are you opposed to tobacco investments generally, or Altria in particular because of its huge exposure to the US regulatory risk?

I have nothing against tobacco.  I used to own BTI, currently own PM & Swedish Match.  Altria is a melting ice cube.  5%+ volume declines in cigarettes, so say 4% total volume declines for the company.  Even if price = inflation + 2%, still revenues fall at 2% per annum in real terms. IQOS entry will erode profitability even if MO can keep distribution.  Capital allocation has been awful.  

[Viking]

FFH, BAC, SU

Edited June 23, 2022 by Viking

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

FFH, BAC, SU

 

These are some good picks but with the financials, how do you get comfortable with them in an inflationary environment?  Or maybe you don't see inflation as persisting?  I just ask as I have a couple bank stocks on my radar as well but am not sure how well they do given it seems they will lose against inflation.

[Parsad]

7 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

These are some good picks but with the financials, how do you get comfortable with them in an inflationary environment?  Or maybe you don't see inflation as persisting?  I just ask as I have a couple bank stocks on my radar as well but am not sure how well they do given it seems they will lose against inflation.

 

Rising rates are terrific for banks, especially with large deposit bases like BAC or JPM.  I believe every 25 basis point rise in rates means another $2-3B more in interest income for BAC.  Cheers!

[ICUMD]

RY, BMO, BNS - Canadian banks are exceptional long term holdings.

SU: continue to hold this since it appears to be a cash flow machine.

[Viking]

51 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

These are some good picks but with the financials, how do you get comfortable with them in an inflationary environment?  Or maybe you don't see inflation as persisting?  I just ask as I have a couple bank stocks on my radar as well but am not sure how well they do given it seems they will lose against inflation.

I think there are lots of puts and takes with financials today. My decision to buy today is more driven by my belief that these 2 stocks (BAC, FFH) will be trading much, much higher in 2-3 years. Yes, lots of volatility, especially for the next 6-12 months. I think the stock prices today bakes in lots of the downside. Will they get cheaper? Probably. But when they move higher it will likely be quick and i do not want to try and get too cute with my positioning. I do have lots of cash to buy more should they continue to sell off. 
 

I bought BAC today at $31.40 (my average cost is around $34). This is close to 40% off its recent high and the same price it was trading 4.5 years ago. They are a cash machine with most of the cash buying back stock (so its market cap at $260 billion is much lower than it was 4.5 years ago). BAC is morphing into a tech play (best in class). And it is levered to the US consumer (who are in great financial shape). 2 to 3 years from now (if not sooner) the stock should be back to $50. I will be buying more if it keeps going down.
 

Fairfax just sold a largely unknown pet insurance business for US$1.4 billion (10% of its market cap of $14 billion). Fairfax shares today are trading at US$480, LOWER than where they were trading 8.5 years ago. Fairfax is also a big winner from rising interest rates (given average duration of bond portfolio was 1.4 years at end of Q1). We are are also in a hard market so top line growing nicely and should continue to increase to offset risks of inflation. Yes, Fairfax’s equity portfolio will be down substantially in Q2 but that is normal for equity holdings. My guess is BV will be up nicely in 2022 to something north of US$675-$700 at year end so shares are trading at about 0.70 x 2022 YE BV. The YE BV will have equities priced at distressed values. And in 2023 interest income will be much higher (perhaps $1 billion) and underwriting income could be stellar as well. I will be buying more if it keeps going down. (I did have US$450 as my ‘get aggressive’ price. The pet insurance sale pushed this higher.)

Edited June 23, 2022 by Viking

[Castanza]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

Lots of ATCO - Atlas Corp.  Cheap, cheap, cheap!  Cheers!

Picked some up as well! Finally had the price alert hit 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

These are some good picks but with the financials, how do you get comfortable with them in an inflationary environment?  Or maybe you don't see inflation as persisting?  I just ask as I have a couple bank stocks on my radar as well but am not sure how well they do given it seems they will lose against inflation.

Financials don’t have an issue with Inflation. I would argue that financials benefit from some inflation if interest rates increase with inflation as is the case right now. If we get hyperinflation, then this would be an issue for financials as well, but I don’t see this coming.

Edited June 23, 2022 by Spekulatius