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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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On 4/8/2022 at 1:26 PM, lnofeisone said:

Another binary trade.

 

Vertex Energy - the company is doing 100% pivot from used motor oil refining to being a refinery producing renewable diesel. Shell is trying to become green and is selling an enormously profitable refinery in Mobile, Alabama. What does it mean for VTNR:

-Revenue today is 120M or so and it will go to about (VTNR-guided) 2.5B (you are reading this correctly) and 200M in gross profit for FY22. They just closed the purchase of the refinery.

-They are guiding to 3.5B in revenue and 400M gross profit for FY23

-They have offtake and supply agreements signed

-EV is about 700M once accounted for all new debt

-There is a 30% short interest in the stock

 

Options are insanely priced but 10/17.5 2023 vertical spread will cost you 1.10. 

 

Some references: https://www.accesswire.com/671855/Vertex-Energy-Reports-Third-Quarter-2021-Results-and-Provides-Strategic-Update

 

 

This spread went from $1.10 to $2.70. I sold half the position and will ride the rest into expiry. 

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1 hour ago, bathtime said:


Have you worked with SNOW’s tech, @lnofeisone?

Yes and would say their products are top notch, on their own or when compared to competition (I've worked with Databricks, Redshift, etc.). I am already down $4/share on my purchase but I'm comfortable scaling in as this keep dropping. 

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13 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Not familiar with this one (and probably shouldn't be given how excessively overweight I am in energy). What's the set up here?

Underfollowed OTC stock that uplisted to Nasdaq few years ago. Super conservatively managed. No debt. Pretty much, but not quite a royalty company...they dont drill. Assets predominantly in Marcellus and operated by CHK. Latest update showed encouraging results in OK which should materially ramp the earnings. Selling from large shareholders putting a lid on stock. Company using this to repurchase shares. Large existing insider ownership. Current dividend yield is 3.5% which should only go higher. Check their May 31 release for latest updates but seems super low risk given the macro backdrop. 

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31 minutes ago, sfbm21 said:

What is thesis here. Dividend? German govt ?

DPW (DHL essentially) is a very cheap and well managed international logistics company. German government is not relevant here. Dividends and share buybacks provide a nice capital return.

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55 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Underfollowed OTC stock that uplisted to Nasdaq few years ago. Super conservatively managed. No debt. Pretty much, but not quite a royalty company...they dont drill. Assets predominantly in Marcellus and operated by CHK. Latest update showed encouraging results in OK which should materially ramp the earnings. Selling from large shareholders putting a lid on stock. Company using this to repurchase shares. Large existing insider ownership. Current dividend yield is 3.5% which should only go higher. Check their May 31 release for latest updates but seems super low risk given the macro backdrop. 

Thanks and looks interesting. Feels like they are somewhat ahead of the curve without debt and already doing repurchases in the $7 range. Good floor for sure. They will also have a pile of cash come year end. 

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