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LowIQinvestor

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Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. 

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28 minutes ago, perulv said:

Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. 

 

Short term probably. But long term I think this sector will outperform. I'm picking up some here as well.

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1 hour ago, perulv said:

Lam research (LRCX). Maybe buying these semiconductor stocks right now is catching a falling knife, but great businesses decent price etc. "All" the q4 results in my portfolio looked the same yesterday, "higher earnings, but supply chain", and they are all down 5-10% today. 

I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space.

 

Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do.

Edited by Spekulatius
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25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I don't think it's supply chain issues that are whacking the stock. I believe the concern is about waning demand. TER just had a hiccup where demand wasn't as expected. This can happen very quickly in the semi equipment space.

 

Perhaps this time is different. Certainly the industry cycles have mellowed out somewhat, but I don't think they are entirely gone, especially in Semi equipment. Also, the insiders and employees know when the jig is up before any of us do.

 

That is a sobering thought🤔 SIMO and LRCX does not mention this directly in their forecasts as far as I can tell. But then again, not sure how much weight I should put in what is not in these guidances. 

 

SIMO on 2022 outlook: "“After delivering record operating results in 2021, we are optimistic that 2022 could be another banner year,” said Wallace Kou, President and CEO of Silicon Motion. ", revenue +20% to 30% Y/Y

 

LRCX: " “While supply chain conditions worsened in late December and are causing near-term impacts to our results, we expect wafer fabrication equipment investments to again increase in calendar year 2022, leading to another strong growth year for Lam.” Q1 guidance: Net income per diluted share $7.36 (down from 8.44 in Q4)

 

In the short term, it feels like that saying "a rising tide lifts all boats" works in reverse too. SIMO with EV/EBIT at 12 falls 8%, TSLA with EV/EBIT at 200 falls 10%. 

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Started a position in SONO. Brand recognition, great balance sheet, margins are good, '22 PE of 15 and growing at 15%+. Audi deal and they successfully defended their patent against google. Every Sonos household buys on average 2.75 speakers and their music subscription service is getting traction. I see this becoming the Apple of home audio. 

 

 

Edited by Ross812
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56 minutes ago, Ross812 said:

Started a position in SONO. Brand recognition, great balance sheet, margins are good, '22 PE of 15 and growing at 15%+. Audi deal and they successfully defended their patent against google. Every Sonos household buys on average 2.75 speakers and their music subscription service is getting traction. I see this becoming the Apple of home audio. 

 

 

Their products are decent but pricey as hell. That said I'm an audiophile who can squeeze a penny so I probably shouldn't be projecting that onto their customer base. My buddy spend like 3k on sonos equipment for his spot, just because it's the easiest platform for whole home audio (with actual speakers - not counting amazon/google home devices)

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Bought some more OZ. To my knowledge it's the only stock in the world that gives you an immediate tax deduction when you buy it. It's a dollar for dollar tax deduction where you write off 100% of your purchase price, retroactive to last year so you get to claim the deduction on your 2021 tax return, and to boot it's selling below NAV.

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Yesterday I freed up some cash and today I pulled a Greg (bought PSTH as a cash sub with upside optionality)

 

Past week or so I've been picking at things, generally in order of size: 

MSFT under and around 280

Berkshire under 300

Bought some T in the 24s

The RE plays everyone loves (CLPR<9, AIV<7, MSGS<70)

C around 60

Bought some damn SNC that Dazel and Gabe love although I may eat my hat there

 

A bunch of stuff I flipped intraday 2 days ago when the market swung like +/- 7% in a few hours.

Pretty much my strategy is: wake up, if the market is tanking, try and buy some quality stuff. 

Go skiing for a few hours. Come back, if the market is now up 5%, sell half that stuff. If not, wait till tmrw.

 

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1 hour ago, aws said:

Bought some more OZ. To my knowledge it's the only stock in the world that gives you an immediate tax deduction when you buy it. It's a dollar for dollar tax deduction where you write off 100% of your purchase price, retroactive to last year so you get to claim the deduction on your 2021 tax return, and to boot it's selling below NAV.

could you please explain how it works?

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Started a position in BUR at $9. I had a previous roundtrip trade with this in the aftermath of the Muddy Waters short report where I exited at $10.20 and have been following the company since then, and feel like this is a good time to start buying in. 

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2 minutes ago, RedLion said:

Started a position in BUR at $9. I had a previous roundtrip trade with this in the aftermath of the Muddy Waters short report where I exited at $10.20 and have been following the company since then, and feel like this is a good time to start buying in. 

Used to own it. Total shame what happened to the company. Literally nothing from the clown report turned out accurate but reputational damage here was massive. Basically pure smash and grab as Cohodes calls it.

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Just now, Gregmal said:

Used to own it. Total shame what happened to the company. Literally nothing from the clown report turned out accurate but reputational damage here was massive. Basically pure smash and grab as Cohodes calls it.

Agreed regarding the reputational damage to the stock. I got lucky because I had a starter position going into the short report and ended up buying a large position at under $6 US and ended with around a 50% gain in a few months exiting just over $10. I've been watching the share price tread water since then and think the long term upside could be huge if they're able to scale up this business model, it seems like a logical takeout candidate for an alt asset manager if the strategy can be proven. 

 

I have some personal experience with litigation finance, and there are a lot of shady small operators in this space financing personal injury cases, etc. Burford seems to finance serious blue chip  litigation by comparison, has more ties in the United States, and is starting to play with third party capital for a pretty huge carried interest %. 

 

So if they really can keep pulling 30% IRR on these non correlated litigation financings then this seems like a really good place to be over the medium to long term. Covid definitely has delayed a lot of litigation, but my understanding is that BUR will likely be able to recover higher total fees based on its funding agreements the longer a financing remains in place. 

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