What are you buying today?

[CafeB]

On 11/15/2021 at 10:26 AM, irnovo said:

I'll suggest reading two writeups on VIC, https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/

For me, I am mostly looking at bigger picture and downside protection. Plasma protein market will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. GRFS is in plasma protein oligopoly. Debt is being used to acquire smaller players in the market. The cost of debt is low, indicating no worries that company will not be able to debt/interest. I don't see a scenario where rev does not grow or margins suppress. The risk is that gene editing tech (CRISPR etc) makes plasma protein therapies obsolete, but that is really far in my opinion. Recent weakness in share price is due to debt and dividend cut. My time horizon and expectation is a double in 5 years.

Thank you very much, irnovo. I appreciate your calling attention to debt and dividend cut as current concerns of investors.

 

I will plan to start a new topic for Grifols in order not to interrupt "What are you buying today?" any further.

[E. Nashton]

Added to V and DIS. Still small positions. 

[Gregmal]

Added to the losers. MSGE and Z. Bit more DIS too. 

[boilermaker75]

I wrote some MSGE Dec 17 expiration puts.

[Monsieur_dee]

Wix and Disney 

[CafeB]

FIS. Averaging down. A smaller position that I plan to make larger.

 

Seeking advice about whether and how to attempt to anticipate tax-loss selling (share price > -20% YTD): should one expect the rate of selling to increase substantially toward the end of the year? or would that process typically already be well underway?

[RedLion]

4 minutes ago, CafeB said:

FIS. Averaging down. A smaller position that I plan to make larger.

 

Seeking advice about whether and how to attempt to anticipate tax-loss selling (share price > -20% YTD): should one expect the rate of selling to increase substantially toward the end of the year? or would that process typically already be well underway?

 

I'm certainly no expert, but in previous years I've often found bargains in the tax loss selling bin around the week of Christmas-New Years, there seems to be a combination of low volume and tax loss selling that can cause an extra steep selloff right before year end. Who knows in 2021 though, the markets are crazy. 

[nwoodman]

Added to ATCO 

[CafeB]

3 hours ago, RedLion said:

 

I'm certainly no expert, but in previous years I've often found bargains in the tax loss selling bin around the week of Christmas-New Years, there seems to be a combination of low volume and tax loss selling that can cause an extra steep selloff right before year end. Who knows in 2021 though, the markets are crazy. 

Thank you, RedLion. It makes sense that lower volume might produce opportunity for weakness to intensify.

 

I should also have noted the potential effects of buybacks over that same period.

 

On 3Q21 earnings call (11/4), FIS management declared interest in buying back aggressively and described current valuation as a "generational buying opportunity".

 

There does not appear to be a topic for FIS; I will plan to start a new one in order not to interrupt "What are you buying today?" any further.

[Lance]

Added to GBTC and T, new position in VZ

 

Thanks

Lance

[RedLion]

Bought some more BRK.B

[rkbabang]

More AIV Jan 2024 $5 calls and more SRUUF.

 

[CafeB]

MSM, as a complement--given its strong bias toward metalworking--to a much larger, longstanding position in FAST.

 

Of course time will tell whether I have deworsified among industrial distributors.

[nwoodman]

More  ATCO and BRK.B.  Berkshire is not thump the table cheap, but in the 270’s is right on the entry point for “buy and hold for a high probability low double digit compounder.”  Refreshingly boring.

[Lance]

BABA, BTI, DVYE and V

 

Thanks

Lance

[longlake95]

SNC June 2022 $32 calls

[fareastwarriors]

Some more MSGE

[CafeB]

FIS and FISV, per 

In both cases, averaging down. In both cases, smaller positions that I plan to make larger, gradually, with possible benefits from tax-loss selling through year-end.

[KPO]

VIAC

[fareastwarriors]

nibbled on some Swedish Match and Imperial Brands

[Simba]

I want to buy some of these WFH names.. but refraining myself.. 

 

will be on sidelines until dust further settles.

 

[kh812000]

On 11/16/2021 at 8:15 AM, kh812000 said:

SWCH.

 

Amazing how under the radar this co is.  Just had analyst day yesterday.

Guides double digit revenue growth for next 10 years.

Guides best in class EBITDA margin 55% for mature properties

In the catbird seat for migration of workloads off enterprise into cloud / tier 4 colocation.

REIT conversion on track for January 2023.

Just a solid solid co that noone talks about.

 

 

On 11/16/2021 at 9:37 AM, LC said:

 

What is your opinion on valuation? Looks like it's trading ~16x AFFO

 

 

EQIX trades at 40x FFO

DLR trades at 26x FFO

AMT trades at 27X FFO

 

With COR (~30xFFO) and CONE (23x FFO) recent takeouts.

 

So range of these assets are low 20s for low quality and mid/high 30s for high quality....

 

So generally can see where the true mkt values are. 

SWCH is a quality asset its more akin to EQIX or COR like mults.... However, most people dont realize it yet, hence the discount.  But SWCH is now also on the radar as a next takeout....

 

[bathtime]

MA, DBX, V, IAC, DIS, TWTR

[CafeB]

"initial lot" of Kerry Group, as supplement to small positions in Givaudan, IFF, etc. For what it's worth, price now at or below where it was in June before company announced of sale of consumer foods business to focus on "Taste & Nutrition" business.

 

(Just saw that a VIC write-up dated August 2021 has recently become visible to guests: Value Investors Club / KERRY GROUP PLC (KYGA ID))

Edited November 25, 2021 by CafeB
To add note about VIC

[Spekulatius]

Bought at bit more SWMAY, HENKY, MXCT and a starter in ADSK.

 

My wife and I also put 10k each into isavings bonds.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Spekulatius