Gregmal Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 yea. crap business. meme stock. huge retail shareholder base. likely gonna puke back to low-mid teens if the market gets wobbly IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E. Nashton Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 hours ago, Gregmal said: yea. crap business. meme stock. huge retail shareholder base. likely gonna puke back to low-mid teens if the market gets wobbly IMO The conference call was a disaster. On top of items you listed the SBC is insane and they filed for a shelf offering maybe a month ago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Wrote puts on XLE Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 3 hours ago, Dean said: The conference call was a disaster. On top of items you listed the SBC is insane and they filed for a shelf offering maybe a month ago as well. SBC Leads to a 14% annual dilution rate. if you have a 38% grower with a 14% dilution rate, then the growth /share is ~18%. That’s not so hot at a 26x revenue EV. PLTR has this mystique about them that seems to appeal to retail investors. That has been able to bolster their valuation so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Started a little Disney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 More MARA puts, this time March $40s. It's fighting the momentum, but it's too tempting after the stock got a fresh 30% or so boost since the last time BTC traded at these prices, even as mining profitability has predictably edged back down. I still see no reason the stock should trade above $10, but it's been a big beneficiary of retail mania and momentum. Since that cuts both ways, I'm hoping I have enough time for these puts to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapriciousCapital Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Picked up some I bonds at 0%. Guaranteed to lose value (albeit at a slower rate than cash at 0.5%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, aws said: More MARA puts, this time March $40s. It's fighting the momentum, but it's too tempting after the stock got a fresh 30% or so boost since the last time BTC traded at these prices, even as mining profitability has predictably edged back down. I still see no reason the stock should trade above $10, but it's been a big beneficiary of retail mania and momentum. Since that cuts both ways, I'm hoping I have enough time for these puts to play out. It's interesting how this POS can move from ~$2 to $70. No balance sheet and income statement analysis required. Just front run retail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aws Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 I've been following MARA for about four years. It's been mixed up with a web of shady microcap stock frauds. At one point in 2017 it traded for something like a $4 billion valuation right after they announced the bitcoin pivot but before they had a single asset in place. It wouldn't surprise me that there were still paid pumpers working behind the scenes. Now with the incredibly loose money available this year and unprecedented ease of pumping stocks with the likes of wallstreetbets, they've spun it into something resembling a legitimate business. But still one that inexplicably carries a 1000% premium to tangible assets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 (edited) Bought some $BMBL. 20% down seems like an overreaction to decent looking earnings. Trading at half the P/S multiple of $MTCH. Maybe I do some research when my wife isn't looking. Edited November 11, 2021 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KJP Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Added to Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Swedish Match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monsieur_dee Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 7 hours ago, Gregmal said: Started a little Disney. Doesn't seem like your usual buy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Monsieur_dee said: Doesn't seem like your usual buy? Did I mention Disney has over 18,000 prime acres of undeveloped land around the parks? LOL Just kidding. I owned the name for a long time, on and off and sold it late 2019 or so. I dont regret missing the buy at $100 during covid because I did way better buying other stuff. But at this point in time I definitely think its worth trying to get back into as its one of the best positioned, large cap, low maintenance companies I am aware of in terms of its positioning for the future. They have a Netflix equivalent streaming biz thats early in its growth. Theme parks are irreplaceable, dominant, and have Herculean pricing power. They have the sports betting market in their crosshairs. Content is best in class. And yea, some great real estate. The brand is one of the best to ever exist. So theres a ton of things going for it and I think they benefit from not only reopening theme type stuff but also the trends in place pre covid. Would ideally like to pyramid into a bigger position but today was a good place to start at $160. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Disney is essentially a collection of trophies. I like owning trophies. I'll leave the whole quarreling about PEs and the "its expensive" stuff for others to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Disney is essentially a collection of trophies. I like owning trophies. I'll leave the whole quarreling about PEs and the "its expensive" stuff for others to play with. Unfortunately, Disney owns ESPN, which is not a trophy but a melting icecube/ cash cow. Can you elaborate the ESPN sport betting angle? I would guess that the sports leagues will license this out and capture most of the economics. Edited November 12, 2021 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 ESPN any way you cut it is/was the dominant sports programming network. Its just horribly mismanaged and too political. Keep politics out of sports you dumb fucks LOL. And IMO will be spun out or sold but Im not really worried about it in the grand scheme of things anymore than owning MSG Networks. People always scrutinize the heck out these but if the programming/content is unique enough they'll just keep printing cash until its time to evolve. Whatever that may be. Like MSGE did, DIS can just take the low multiple, shitty valuation gobs of cash they get from the network and fund high growth, premium valuation investments in other places. Streaming will carry way more weight in terms of how this trades than ESPN individually and I expect DIS to remain strong there. They mentioned sports betting on the call today and I think if done correctly they are absolutely right that it can be integrated into the ESPN platform which will in turn bring in younger audience. We do believe that sports betting is a very significant opportunity for the Company, and it's all driven by the consumer. It's driven by the consumer, particularly the younger consumer that will replenish the sports fans over time and their desire to have gambling as part of their sports experience. It's not necessarily a lean-back, it's a little bit of a lean-forward type experience that they're looking for, and as we follow the consumer, we necessarily have to seriously consider getting into gambling in a bigger way, and ESPN is a perfect platform for this. We have done substantial research in terms of the impact to not only to ESPN brand, but the Disney brand in terms of consumers changing perceptions of the acceptability of gambling, and what we're finding is that there's a very significant isolation. Gambling does not have the cache now that it had, say 10 or 20 years ago, and we have some concerns as a Company about our ability to get in it without having a brand withdrawal. But I can tell you that given all the research that we've done recently, that that is not the case. It actually strengthens the brand of ESPN when you have a betting component, and it has no impact on the Disney brand. Therefore, to go after that demographic opportunity plus the, of course, not insignificant revenue implications, that is something that we're keenly interested in and are pursuing aggressively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 (edited) 20 hours ago, kab60 said: Swedish Match Same here. SWMA looks very attractive relative to $PM (which is no slouch either). Edited November 12, 2021 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFF Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 IDN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedLion Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Bought more APO. Should be pretty well filled up on this one right now other than some short PUTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Same here. SWMA looks very attractive relative to $PM (which is no slouch either). @kab60 @Spekulatius What are your opinions on British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: @kab60 @Spekulatius What are your opinions on British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands? I already own a boatload. Like 25 pct of my portfolio is in Altria and BTI. It's cheaper, lower risk and with a smaller range of outcomes I'd say, so I sized it bigger. But Swedish Match has more upside on a longterm horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: @kab60 @Spekulatius What are your opinions on British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands? I also own a bit of BTI. I don't own Imperial Tobacco. I think BTI is the cheapest nicotine stock out there, SWMA is the growthiest. I believe SWMA compares favorably to PM both in terms of valuation as well as business quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dinar Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: I also own a bit of BTI. I don't own Imperial Tobacco. I think BTI is the cheapest nicotine stock out there, SWMA is the growthiest. I believe SWMA compares favorably to PM both in terms of valuation as well as business quality. I own bti and swmay, agree with the quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplevalue Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Vintage blow mold Christmas decorations. Gotta be early this year with all the supply chain disruptions going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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