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What are you buying today?


LowIQinvestor

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I've traded in and out of BABA profitability over the last 8-10 months. At these current prices, I wanted to establish a position again but decided to go the weaker route. Bought units in a broad emerging markets index fund...happy to add to it over time. Offers more diversification, exposure to all the beaten down names and a decent yield. 

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On 9/28/2021 at 12:35 PM, Every Banana Counts said:

TSM. I listen to a wonderful podcast episode on acquired. This seems like a reasonably priced company, and is likely going to be the dominant player for many years to come. 

Interesting. I listen to this episode from Broken Silicon pod cast and that fellow with 40 years of experience expects that the semi shortage will become a glut, probably in 12 month or so.

I believe Mr Market will smell the rat before the turn happens most likely. I think there is going to be a lot of money made with puts if you can time it well.

 

Insert “First time?” GIF here.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-silicon/id1467317304?i=1000536154890

Edited by Spekulatius
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Picked up some MHO/MTH on the sell off Tuesday. Double edge sword of higher interest rates leading to higher mortgage costs and higher costs eating into margins. But I think their land value is probably increased by a good mid-teens % over the past year/18 months, and I think WFH/housing requirements remain post-covid.

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16 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting. I listen to this episode from Broken Silicon pod cast and that fellow with 40 years of experience expects that the semi shortage will become a glut, probably in 12 month or so.

I believe Mr Market will smell the rat before the turn happens most likely. I think there is going to be a lot of money made with puts if you can time it well.

 

Insert “First time?” GIF here.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/broken-silicon/id1467317304?i=1000536154890

I cannot imagine that the pendulum does not swing the other direction. I think that in the long term the swings will average out, and TSMC is in a very competitive position to do better than its competition in good and bad times. Their chips are going to be the best for a long time. I do wish the Company was headquartered in Arizona instead of right next to China… Thanks for sending the podcast link.

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1 hour ago, Every Banana Counts said:

I cannot imagine that the pendulum does not swing the other direction. I think that in the long term the swings will average out, and TSMC is in a very competitive position to do better than its competition in good and bad times. Their chips are going to be the best for a long time. I do wish the Company was headquartered in Arizona instead of right next to China… Thanks for sending the podcast link.

Agreed. i do think semi equipment manufacturers will see a lot of pain once the boom subsides. TSMC can scale their Capex down and will generate strong FCF in a downturn. They will be fine.

 

A lot of the semi "experts" on twitter never have seen a down turn in semi's. Even the 2008/2009 recession was pretty short lived. 2000-2002 not so much.

The industry has gotten better handling downturns though due to consolidation and better supply chain management (Flexible cost structure). It is still fairly cyclical.

 

I don't work in semi's, but our sector is loosely related and after customers buying everything we could deliver in 2020 and mid 2021, we know see a glut in inventory for some of  our components and orders are way down.

 

I have seen about 4 of these cycles since I started working ( the 2001-2002 downturn was by far the worst) and they never get old. I think we will see the same cycle post COVID pretty much in every industry and commodity.

Edited by Spekulatius
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15 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

CLI

clearly for sale, but what px? BTIG says $26 NAV on not entirely bearish assumptions. 101 sale de-levers office to virtually no debt, MF is levered but all non-recourse / asset specific (plus the pref), what are your thoughts here?

 

 

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Quote

The Giants have nothing to do with MSGE.  That's the Rangers & Knicks.

 

NY Giants are broadcasted by MSG Networks , which is part of MSGE now.

 

but I agree, Giants don't have much to say about MSGE stock performance

 

They are just... well..  heu...  my favorite team 😞

 

image.thumb.png.2718500dc4b64f39a3cdf0cf76265b60.png

Edited by finetrader
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13 minutes ago, thepupil said:

clearly for sale, but what px? BTIG says $26 NAV on not entirely bearish assumptions. 101 sale de-levers office to virtually no debt, MF is levered but all non-recourse / asset specific (plus the pref), what are your thoughts here?

 

 

Not a whole lot that you probably dont already know. They're done for the most part with office...I hate office, so thats mainly what I was waiting for. Whats left there will move. Beautiful waterfront buildings. 

 

Otherwise you just have some really good assets on the MF side. I actually like it quite a bit more than CLPR here for the simple reason that governance seems in check, the properties are better, and again, where's your downside now? One of the better ways historically to play any sort of bullishness on NYC has been to buy certain types of NJ assets. Jersey City is the new Hoboken. Lease ups have been strong as well. Lotta different things could go right and not too much from what I can see that can go wrong at this stage of the game. 

 

Whats your realistic risks on this? Mine were total disdain for office and especially suburban office. Those are no more. 

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I think CLI's balance sheet risk is gone completely. they can (as you say) sell the remaining office and inject a boat load of capital into the multifamily. so I'd say CLI has none of the "omg 15x EBITDA debt" risk that Jim Chanos was tweeting about anymore. the biggest risk i see is simply execution and valuation on the multifamily side. you can drive a truck through the run rate NOI and the pro-forma NOI that gets you to an okay cap rate, and the disclosure on the land bank/land options is dogshit. I have little clue as to the credibility of the "$XXK / unit / site" they throw out in their NAV buildup. 

 

I think it gets sold, low $20's to $30. I've considered it as a replacement for some CDR/LAACZ exposure that I think is gone before year end ( in each I'm holding despite 70-100%+ appreciation this year as I expect them to transact above the current prices). 

 

as far as catalyst/clarity of incentives, to me it seems like one of the better things out there. just a question of what to pay/what worth. 

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Ya. Probability wise, I see low 20s as a reasonable and highly likely target and I see mid teens as a safe place to back into a bigger position if you get that downside. Not really much impairment risk, IMO. Either way, its fun playing the discount to NAV games when a company is actually selling assets. One of the easier event driven type trades out there, especially since covid shook everything up. 

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