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On 8/6/2021 at 10:30 AM, Gregmal said:

In case you guys are still holding...word of advice on the CRISPR stocks....never sell a small piece of your position. If you understand the investment case, the sky is the limit and irrespective of how it plays out the moves in these names will shock you so dont get too giddy after a simple 10-20% move. Ive generally found trimming 20-30% of the position after 30-50% moves or so works. Then reverse that process in terms of accumulating. You'll have your original investment pulled in no time. 

Took 30% off CRBU today. Nice little move here. 

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16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Me too

 

Las Vegas is never shutting down again & NYC......well.......vaccination rates are high, it was epicentre of early COVID so lots of people with Mid-2020 naturally acquired antibodies.....combined NY metro is probably at ~75% of adults with COVID antibodies . Lockdowns wont be needed, health system wont be overwhelemed and NY'ers are done staying in their basements

 

MSG Arena will be full this fall/winter with sports and concerts

Rockettes will be jam packed as it has been for 84 years (excepting last year)

Tao Group restaurants are already full / booked out in NYC for weekend nights

Sports betting is coming to NY state - MSGN will have super engaged viewers for knicks/rangers games & desperate advertisers looking to pitch their gambling gaming app

 

 

Does anyone worry about the expiration of the MSG use permit in 2023?  With Cuomo on the way out, I don't think MSG is as well protected politically as it was in 2013.  Could MSG get shut down or get forced to build elsewhere without adequate compensation? 

 

That said, the SOTP math still works even if you zero out the garden.  

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^I do actually worry about something like that from time to time. Its never actually been explained to my satisfaction what the ramifications of that scenario are. However I ultimately fall back on the fact that I think this would be an unmitigated PR nightmare, and self inflicted, easily avoidable wound for the politicians as MSG is basically a NYC historical landmark and there's few things that NYers are more passionate about, to a non partisan degree, than their sports and entertainment. 

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On 8/10/2021 at 4:33 PM, Gregmal said:

Took 30% off CRBU today. Nice little move here. 

 

Nice call!

 

CRBU has now retraced 33% of its $ gains from the low of $15.03 to the high of $28.96. If it retraces 50% the reentry price could be around $22.

 

I actually don't use TA usually, but how else would you find a method for trading around a position if not retracements, support/resistance, or gaps?

 

Interestingly there are no gaps to be filled, even though the rise took only 9 trading days.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Nice call!

 

CRBU has now retraced 33% of its $ gains from the low of $15.03 to the high of $28.96. If it retraces 50% the reentry price could be around $22.

 

I actually don't use TA usually, but how else would you find a method for trading around a position if not retracements, support/resistance, or gaps?

 

Interestingly there are no gaps to be filled, even though the rise took only 9 trading days.

 

 

 

 

Technicals to me are like 5-10% of the equation. The variables are always moving though and nothing is static. Good old fashioned gut feeling is the best trading indicator. Discipline and sizing matter too of course. You can take a starter and lose 100% and if its sized right, who cares? 

 

Agree a low $20s re-entry on a partial would be ideal. 

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Opened position in GOCO after 40% drop followed by another 20% drop. It dragged down SLQT too so I bought some. Added to EHTH. I am taking a basket approach. These stocks have become cheap, will continue to post >30% growth. I am bullish on this sector due to TAM and secular winds. 

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@irnovoWhat is the issue with $GOCO? Looks like revenues are as expected and cost are higher, due to higher minimum wages /tighter labor markets?

 

If so, it seems likely that competitors like $SLQT and $EHTH will see similar issues.

 

Are these companies have real platforms or are they just glorified call center operators with at risk commissions as main source of revenues.

 

I have been following $SLQT since it’s IPO but never invested. One reason is the spammy nature of their business model.

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12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@irnovoWhat is the issue with $GOCO? Looks like revenues are as expected and cost are higher, due to higher minimum wages /tighter labor markets?

 

If so, it seems likely that competitors like $SLQT and $EHTH will see similar issues.

 

Are these companies have real platforms or are they just glorified call center operators with at risk commissions as main source of revenues.

 

I have been following $SLQT since it’s IPO but never invested. One reason is the spammy nature of their business model.

For GOCO, on Q2 earnings call, they revised EBITDA for 2021 (from ~350m to ~300) due to increased costs for hiring and retaining sale agents in 2021. EHTH didn't change guidance in Q2 call. SLQT is due to announce earnings on 25th Aug. The companies may seem spammy but it is in their best interest to find the most suitable Medicare Advantage plan for the seniors so that the churn is low. Therefore they really help seniors. I'd highly suggest most recent write up on VIC as well as the discussion in comments. With so many MA plans available (~28 on avrg), it can really get difficult for the seniors to choose the most appropriate plans. I don't see any reason why these platforms would fail to post high rev growth in coming years. They all have ~2-3 LTV/CAC, meaning that every additional approved member adds to profitability. 

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Stuff like the MSGE selloff is why investing is really easy if your time horizon is greater than 1-2 quarters. Remember how a year ago covid killed retail for good, NYC REITs were going to zero, the Sphere was going to bankrupt MSGE, and SPG wasn't worth buying at $65....

 

Fast forward a year and retail is on fire with many names significantly higher than pre covid levels, NYC is still a shithole but you had 50-100% rallies on the back of just mediocre improvements, MSGE went to 120 and then bought $200M a year in FCF with stock, and SPG is crushing it and raising dividends every quarter. 

 

Now some idiots are selling because I guess we still think covid is going to put an end to sports and live entertainment(even though we already saw this notion destroyed last year)......

 

 

And on that note, tangentially related, rebought a 3%(fully margined) position in JBGS. Free money. 

Edited by Gregmal
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