writser Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Added to MSGN, tendering top of range. We'll see what pro-ration ends up at. Curious sell-off, perhaps because it is not possible to tender anymore at some brokers? Admittedly an extremely weak thesis but the setup in general looks ok too (huge tender, insiders not selling, shares close to a three-year low so some bagholders might not be willing to sell) .. Still one hour left at IB. Might buy a few shares and tender at any price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelj Posted September 27, 2019 Share Posted September 27, 2019 Bidu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanielGMask Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Almost doubled my position in AYR. Possibly the best risk/reward and margin of safety Ive seen in a very long time. Now trading at basically 2.5x 2020 adjusted EBIDTA. Buyback starts October 1st. I'm not familiar with this kind of company but the numbers look interesting. How do you evaluate the risk of leasees not paying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanielGMask Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Bought a bit more FOX and a starter in ANTM. ANTM doesn't look cheap at all. Could you share the thesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Almost doubled my position in AYR. Possibly the best risk/reward and margin of safety Ive seen in a very long time. Now trading at basically 2.5x 2020 adjusted EBIDTA. Buyback starts October 1st. I'm not familiar with this kind of company but the numbers look interesting. How do you evaluate the risk of leasees not paying? What do you mean by leasees not paying? They do not have the model that relies on leasing. IIPR, which is basically in that line of business and is actually quite interesting as a REIT but not something I own or have gotten intimate enough with the expel certain question marks tackles this kind of stuff. AYR has the bulk of it's forward guidance hinged to its wholesale buildout. To date they've been successful with this and there is little to see why this can not continue. Demand is easily there and they produce basically at a $1400/lb rate with the market somewhere around $2800-$3000/lb. So they have stupid margins on this stuff with demand through the roof and really very few viable competitors on that scale AND existing relationships with about 65% of the MA businesses licensed to sell. The stock is crazy cheap on an absolute basis for ANY type of business, including even melting ice cubes and cigar butt stuff but when you then put into perspective that this is a hyper growth market with surrounding states likely legalizing in the near future(especially if blue states get more blue next election), and I think it solely comes down to walking the talk so to speak. I get it, this is the most disgusting and vociferously contested optical investment known to man. The post deal SPAC. So it's absolutely astute of investors to heed that. And maybe this time it's not different. My one internal assessment of risk is that I attribute the expectation of certain traits...ie relentless volatility and price declines during certain expected periods, as things that support the "why the opportunity exists" question, but also, are characteristics of other totally unrelated but more malignant signs of a different thesis... but that's what makes a market. All I know is if they hit numbers next year, or even just top $100M in EBITDA, this should be at least a double. Whereas if they miss by 50% you still can kind of justify the current share price quite easily. I think it's really just about doing what they are saying and so far have proven that they can do. Once its been shown, fundamentals will be valued in a more traditional way. Until then it carries the skull and cross bones of the putrid post deal SPAC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted September 28, 2019 Share Posted September 28, 2019 Bought a bit more FOX and a starter in ANTM. ANTM doesn't look cheap at all. Could you share the thesis? It’s GARP. ~$19/ share in earnings and a growth rate > 10%. It’s not crazy cheap, but it trades at a historically large discount to market in terms of PE. This discount is due to political uncertainty (some Democratic candidates proposing single payer /Medicare for all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisowis Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Almost doubled my position in AYR. Possibly the best risk/reward and margin of safety Ive seen in a very long time. Now trading at basically 2.5x 2020 adjusted EBIDTA. Buyback starts October 1st. I'm not familiar with this kind of company but the numbers look interesting. How do you evaluate the risk of leasees not paying? What do you mean by leasees not paying? They do not have the model that relies on leasing. ... My guess: he's talking about Aircastle ($AYR), you are talking about AYR strategies ($AYR-A.CA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maple Fun Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 I am buying GDC.TO Genesis Land Development recently, a speculation on federal election.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanielGMask Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Almost doubled my position in AYR. Possibly the best risk/reward and margin of safety Ive seen in a very long time. Now trading at basically 2.5x 2020 adjusted EBIDTA. Buyback starts October 1st. I'm not familiar with this kind of company but the numbers look interesting. How do you evaluate the risk of leasees not paying? What do you mean by leasees not paying? They do not have the model that relies on leasing. ... My guess: he's talking about Aircastle ($AYR), you are talking about AYR strategies ($AYR-A.CA). Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 Bought some more AYR. Here's hoping this bitch finally bottomed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 continuing to nibble at SNC.TO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 T-ARX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Writing $MO 10/11 39.5 puts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Wrote FOXA 11/08/2019 $31.00 puts. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Picked up a few CTO and have been filled on 5 GRIF. Lucky me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Sold more BERY $45 puts which means I am long the stock at $37. Looking to turn around and buy some BERY commons as well with the put proceeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Sold more BERY $45 puts which means I am long the stock at $37. Looking to turn around and buy some BERY commons as well with the put proceeds. For Clarification, I have owned both Berry commons and the $45 puts when it was trading about $50. I paid $1.45 for the puts and just sold a portion at $8.30. I can elect to buy more shares or LEAPs or both. I should just quit picking stock and start buying puts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 Cash. Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more. Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+. Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today. Sold ~15% of the core put position today when VIX hit 20. Will probably let a bit more go if me move closer to 25, but still waiting for that elusive 30+ print on the VIX to signal panic to let the bulk of the position go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 2, 2019 Share Posted October 2, 2019 I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 Some Altria the other day, more Linamar yesterday (around 30 pct. position). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 DIS yesterday. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY Can you comment at all on RYCEY? Even with the pullback it doesn't seem that terribly cheap to me but I admit I don't understand the financials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY Can you comment at all on RYCEY? Even with the pullback it doesn't seem that terribly cheap to me but I admit I don't understand the financials. I look at RYCEY‘s valuation in terms of EV/ sales. It trades at around 1xEV/ sales, but once profitability is addressed, it should be able to get to 2x eventually. Now add done revenue growth to it, one can easily see more than a 2 bagger. Bases on Current results, you are correct , Rolls Royce isn’t cheap at all. I am optimistic though, because there is just such a strong moat around this business and there is really only one competitor ( and Pratt& Whittey to some extend). Likewise logic can be applied to GE, except I have more concerns about their accounting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 FOXA Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saluki Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Building a position in STNG (scorpio tankers) and bought a tiny bit in SALT (scorpio bulkers) which owns a big slug of STNG. Added to my large position in SSW (Seaspan) and bought some more JOE on the dip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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