Mephistopheles Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What was Cisco’s P/E or EV/EBIT before it collapsed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Well I do hope AAPL follows CSCO’s lead and drops 90% from here. That’ll be the perfect opportunity to utilize the huge leverage I can get by mortgaging my home and putting the proceeds in a margin account and then buying as many OTM calls as I possibly can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muscleman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What was Cisco’s P/E or EV/EBIT before it collapsed ? Over the past 10 years, I've seen two kinds of collapses. First is sky high valuation followed by disillusioned shareholders. Second is stock moving lower first, and value investors screaming bargain all the way down, while E continues to deteriorate. I think AAPL is in the second basket. The problem with valuation with P/E is that you have to be damn sure that E is going to go up, not down. AAPL is changing reporting standards. That's a tip off that the next few Es will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maybe4less Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What was Cisco’s P/E or EV/EBIT before it collapsed ? Over the past 10 years, I've seen two kinds of collapses. First is sky high valuation followed by disillusioned shareholders. Second is stock moving lower first, and value investors screaming bargain all the way down, while E continues to deteriorate. I think AAPL is in the second basket. The problem with valuation with P/E is that you have to be damn sure that E is going to go up, not down. AAPL is changing reporting standards. That's a tip off that the next few Es will be bad. No opinion on whether Apple is this second kind of stock or not, but the comparison to Cisco in 2000 is just ridiculous. I think even Apple bears would find it so. Two totally different situations and valuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Picked up more BRK, WFC, AAPL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What was Cisco’s P/E or EV/EBIT before it collapsed ? Over the past 10 years, I've seen two kinds of collapses. First is sky high valuation followed by disillusioned shareholders. Second is stock moving lower first, and value investors screaming bargain all the way down, while E continues to deteriorate. I think AAPL is in the second basket. The problem with valuation with P/E is that you have to be damn sure that E is going to go up, not down. AAPL is changing reporting standards. That's a tip off that the next few Es will be bad. It seems AAPL got a whole lot more popular(especially around here) once Warren capitulated and bought in big. You'd think there wasn't even a bear case anymore the past year, which is odd because there was the entire way up when Icahn owned it. Just my lazy guess, but Buffett's buying spree probably put $50 a share on this that wouldn't have been there otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What was Cisco’s P/E or EV/EBIT before it collapsed ? Over the past 10 years, I've seen two kinds of collapses. First is sky high valuation followed by disillusioned shareholders. Second is stock moving lower first, and value investors screaming bargain all the way down, while E continues to deteriorate. I think AAPL is in the second basket. The problem with valuation with P/E is that you have to be damn sure that E is going to go up, not down. AAPL is changing reporting standards. That's a tip off that the next few Es will be bad. It seems AAPL got a whole lot more popular(especially around here) once Warren capitulated and bought in big. You'd think there wasn't even a bear case anymore the past year, which is odd because there was the entire way up when Icahn owned it. Just my lazy guess, but Buffett's buying spree probably put $50 a share on this that wouldn't have been there otherwise... There were people here joyfully buying AAPL way before Buffett got into it. I foolishly wasn't one of them. But in the past even if I wasn't a believer in Apple, I came close to buying a few times just because it was so damn cheap. Of course a stamp from Buffett would move the thesis. Berkshire has never made a mistake with this much capital. I'd venture out to say and Buffett will agree that the Buffett buying spree happened because that extra $50 or more per share should have been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What was Cisco’s P/E or EV/EBIT before it collapsed ? Over the past 10 years, I've seen two kinds of collapses. First is sky high valuation followed by disillusioned shareholders. Second is stock moving lower first, and value investors screaming bargain all the way down, while E continues to deteriorate. I think AAPL is in the second basket. The problem with valuation with P/E is that you have to be damn sure that E is going to go up, not down. AAPL is changing reporting standards. That's a tip off that the next few Es will be bad. It seems AAPL got a whole lot more popular(especially around here) once Warren capitulated and bought in big. You'd think there wasn't even a bear case anymore the past year, which is odd because there was the entire way up when Icahn owned it. Just my lazy guess, but Buffett's buying spree probably put $50 a share on this that wouldn't have been there otherwise... There were people here joyfully buying AAPL way before Buffett got into it. I foolishly wasn't one of them. But in the past even if I wasn't a believer in Apple, I came close to buying a few times just because it was so damn cheap. Of course a stamp from Buffett would move the thesis. Berkshire has never made a mistake with this much capital. I'd venture out to say and Buffett will agree that the Buffett buying spree happened because that extra $50 or more per share should have been there. Wasn't referring to anyone specific in the above. Just an observation. The growth slowdown is obviously nothing new. It just seemed that this worry became less relevant in the past year, coinciding with Buffett buying and the stock going on a tear. I'm a younger dude, but I've never seen Warren fly into a position like he did with this one. I find it interesting to observe from afar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just off the top of my head American Express (more than once), Coke, and Wells Fargo were also fly into them positions. It's Warren's style when he figures a really good deal. He can't help himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Yea the bulk of those definitely pre-date my obsession with investing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Picked up more BRK, WFC, AAPL You see we all can share good prices on the market. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Throughout the week I bought AAPL, BP, BPR and TCO. Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just off the top of my head American Express (more than once), Coke, and Wells Fargo were also fly into them positions. It's Warren's style when he figures a really good deal. He can't help himself. I think this is true, rb, I'll just add one more "more than once" here: Geico. Market value YE 1995 for about half of Geico: USD 2,393.2 M, cost 45.7 M [<-!]. After which he poured USD 2.3 B into it the next year to own the whole thing. Talk to me about averaging up. Crazy stuff. Flirting with it and going heavy on it when he was a young man, too. I can almost picture him blowing the smoke away from the muzzle of his gun after the second shot, thinking : "Got you, now your mine - I own your butt, you ... beauty." From the 1995 Annual report Shareholder Letter: ... Even so, we do have a few advantages, perhaps the greatest being that we don't have a strategic plan. Thus we feel no need to proceed in an ordained direction (a course leading almost invariably to silly purchase prices) but can instead simply decide what makes sense for our owners. ... ... Talking to Time Magazine a few years back, Peter Drucker got to the heart of things: "I will tell you a secret: Dealmaking beats working. Dealmaking is exciting and fun, and working is grubby. Running anything is primarily an enormous amount of grubby detail work . . . dealmaking is romantic, sexy. That's why you have deals that make no sense." ... -I love it! [ : - D] - - - o 0 o - - - Edit: Ceico market price was actually up ~26% at YE1995 because of Bershire's bid for for the last half. Source. [<- H/T Cigarbutt.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dynamic Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I was put to on all my short puts in AAPL, BAC and WFC, having expected on Thursday that it would take quite a large Friday drop to be exercised on anything other than BAC. That drop happened and the stocks were in my account on Saturday. AAPL effective price $167.62. Latest price $168.09 BAC effective price $26.07. Friday price $25.42 WFC effective price $49.92. Friday price $50.25 Wrote some 7 December cash covered puts on AAPL 170 strike for $2.38 BAC 26.50 strike for $0.43 Hat tip to boilermaker75 for this approach to opening long positions. Sold some WFC $50.50 strike 7 December puts for $0.58 while I was out during my vacation thanks to a GTC limit order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I've been put to on several positions the last couple of expirations. Some I am keeping, positions I wanted to add to. Some I have turned around and sold covered calls on. If these are positions you wanted to add to, these could be good prices. If not, you could get some pretty good call premiums. For instance the Dec 14, 170-strike AAPL calls are going for $3 per share. The Dec 14, 50.50 strike WFC calls are going for $0.83 per share. I was put to on all my short puts in AAPL, BAC and WFC, having expected on Thursday that it would take quite a large Friday drop to be exercised on anything other than BAC. That drop happened and the stocks were in my account on Saturday. AAPL effective price $167.62. Latest price $168.09 BAC effective price $26.07. Friday price $25.42 WFC effective price $49.92. Friday price $50.25 Wrote some 7 December cash covered puts on AAPL 170 strike for $2.38 BAC 26.50 strike for $0.43 Hat tip to boilermaker75 for this approach to opening long positions. Sold some WFC $50.50 strike 7 December puts for $0.58 while I was out during my vacation thanks to a GTC limit order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dynamic Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I do like all these fairly well, but BAC more than AAPL or WFC at these prices. While I am not on margin, and actually still have some cash exposure, I have been thinking about your previous posts about getting onto 25% margin then getting off margin using covered calls. I've been thinking about this mainly if I get too much exposure, as selling covered calls is the other side of the same coin and is something I might well consider given the high annualised return available to have a few more bites of the cherry before I settle on the positions and exposures I want at really cheap prices. I might well place some orders and either earn some extra income on my positions or get called for a pretty good short-term profit, which has no more tax consequence in the UK than a long-term profit. Then I can return to selling puts for more income, which I might also do this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Bought some GS. They made it through the financial crisis despite significantly higher leverage than today, and grew at the same time. Hopefully they can make it through the next crisis as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Wrote WFC 48.5-strike Dec 14 expiration puts for $0.95 per share this morning. I am tapped out. If put to on everything I will be fully invested. Actually a few thousand on margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lance Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 AAPL and BPR Thanks Lance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dynamic Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I decided to increase my BRK.B exposure further on the dip and sold my new AAPL position. I'm almost fully invested again now, having had a reasonable cash position for about a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junto Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 I bought in roughly equal amounts BAC JPM C F yesterday towards end of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Sold DIS,MPW,AMNF and a part of SKT and HSY to buy AVGO,LON:IMB and BEN. Also bought a LEAP call on KMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Wrote WFC 48.5-strike Dec 14 expiration puts for $0.95 per share this morning. I am tapped out. If put to on everything I will be fully invested. Actually a few thousand on margin. I couldn't help myself, I wrote a few more WFC puts. 48-strike, Dec 14 expiration for $0.72 per share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 WFC and AER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longlake95 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 KMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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