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FIZZ - National Beverage Corp


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The company has a market Cap of 640 millions. It develops and sells soft drinks, energy drinks and shots, juices, teas, still and sparkling waters.  Brands include Shata, Faygo (both more than 100 years old) Ritz, Rip It, Everfresh, Mr Pure. It owns twelve manufacturing facilities and the bottling network.

 

The management is with the company for a long time. It has great numbers. 

 

Colas account for less than 20% of the total volume. No one customer accounts for more than 10% of net sales.

 

I just initiated a very small long position today. Might add to it if it goes down more..

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looks interesting.

 

do you think this is a good business, or just cheap?

 

any idea what the bull vs bear thesis is?

 

i like that it's a low multiple w/ no analyst coverage. great ROICs. the brands don't stick out particularly to me as things that have real "franchise value" though. i'm not too familiar with the industry though.

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  • 4 months later...

Hey all:

 

Selling FIZZ was one of the biggest mistakes I ever made.

 

You see, I bought it back in the early 90's at 4 3/8's a share.  400 shares I owned.  I remember it clearly as I was a student at Grand Valley State University.  I thought it was so very interesting that I owned stock in a company whose product I bought and used.  Specifically, Rock & Rye was one of my favorite drinks!

 

Living in Detroit, you could get Faygo bottles at the corner store.  It was (and is) a great brand.

 

Anyway, to make a long story short....I sold because I more than doubled my money!

 

Had I held onto those shares, I would have well over 100X gain.

 

Oh well, hopefully I'll know better next time...

 

Well, all is not lost...family members bought shares back in the early 2000's and have done very well.

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I have completed my PROPRIETARY RESEARCH video on this stock, which you can now find in my signature or in the link below. I will be continuing my sabbatical, but my discovery of a brand new and as-of-yet undiscovered MARKET OPPORTUNITY for LaCroix made me feel obligated to share this research while it is still timely...

 

https://youtu.be/XVQW5GyaVbI

 

My worst investing mistake ever (hopefully). It was selling at $21 couple years ago and I waited to pick it at $16-17. Still waiting. Last time I checked , the owner was older and trying to get the distribution rights with Walmart etc. Did he drop dead and some PE bought it or are there buy out rumors to justify this price appreciation?

 

Wish I had read Scott's views about momentum investing then. Value investing is load of bullsh.. sometimes

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Yeah the CEO has always been odd.  We buy LaCroix in my household and we started buying it through Costco and not the grocery store.  That is probably a negative for LaCroix margins.  What happened in my grocery store is that 1) LaCroix lost the prominent end cap it had always occupied, 2) LaCroix stopped offering the 15 pack at around the 12 pack price, and 3) they slightly raised their prices of the 12-pack-only offering to the point where it is easy to skip as an unnecessary luxury.  We have a soda stream machine as well, and the only LaCroix flavors we buy are Lemon, Lime and Grapefruit - nothing exotic that we can't get with the cheaper soda machine option.

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The CEO letter was quite peculiar, but he's always been that way.

 

Frankly, I am not shocked by the poor results given the ridiculous allegations that made national headlines in October and November. This was a bit of a fad, but it also has it's niche and is still a premier brand.

 

Adding to gfp's comments, I have never bought this is a grocery store. I buy it at Costco. I go through maybe 8-10 cans a day. I did notice Costco blatantly ripped them off about 6 months ago. I tried the Costco and its mediocre but then, quite surprisingly, Ive noticed lately La Croix completely changed their Costco pack from the traditional flavors. I still buy it, but not sure if that's the case for everyone.

 

I would think we see some stabilization in sales. Sparkling water is a growing market, La Croix can lose share and still grow revs. Bottom line though, IMO is that the only real upside catalyst at the moment is the CEO putting the company up for sale. Which, if he truly feels an injustice occurred, might be the best way to prove the naysayers wrong.

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Thanks for the color. My initial thesis is broken, i assumed that they were going to revenue grow at high single digits with some operating leverage. The company had 20% of float short at the time , which for a growing company was a prime short squeeze situation

 

I have to dig into the filings to see what happened.

 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Does anyone have a recent short thesis on this?

 

Just to list out what i heard or read and we can add and discuss:

1) growth is maxed out already in terms distribution based on what management has done. there is no international growth at all under this management

 

2) competition from PEP - Bubly is taking share and will continue to do so along with private labels as consumers do not have preference in this category. They are picking whatever is cheap or hot in terms of promotions.

 

3) Nick controls the company and he is weird. No big companies would want to deal with him for either a buyout or partnership. So there is no way to unlock the value.

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Dont know the new short thesis. Dont really think there is one outside of the new conditions persisting/worsening.

 

I did find it interesting that for the first time in years, I did not see this at Costco anymore. At least not the one by me.

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  • 4 months later...

 

Been debating buying a few $35 calls. Stock seems to have some support around the $40 mark.

 

They should try to sell a version with some booze in it, it may just work.

 

I've long hoped(despite not having a position yet) that they'd try this. It would certainly help correct the ridiculous nonsense and slander this company has had to put up with. It should tell you something when people describe White Claw, overwhelmingly regarded as the best spiked seltzer, as "basically La Croix with booz"....And yet, Capporella hasn't acted.

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