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2012 Returns


rkbabang
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I am unclear on how to actually measure performance because I just add money to my account when I want to buy a stock. I had a 5k roth IRA and added 5k to it over the course of this year. So if I pretend my starting value was 10k essentially I ended up holding 90% cash for half the year, and only increased my position in late fall, and now I'm at 25% cash. So overall my annual return is 7%.

 

If there is a better way to calculate performance, please let me know......:)

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I am unclear on how to actually measure performance because I just add money to my account when I want to buy a stock. I had a 5k roth IRA and added 5k to it over the course of this year. So if I pretend my starting value was 10k essentially I ended up holding 90% cash for half the year, and only increased my position in late fall, and now I'm at 25% cash. So overall my annual return is 7%.

 

If there is a better way to calculate performance, please let me know......:)

 

Sure, just plug in the date of the addition into Excel and use the XIRR function to calculate your return.

 

As for myself, I'll find out when Fidelity calculates it all for me on 1/15/2013, I was at 22% on 11/30, my balances look roughly the same, so probably somewhat close to that mark.  It's fascinating to see how different things do, I have my investments spread across a few accounts (taxable, retirement etc), my taxable looks like it was up 31%, that's where I do most of my foreign investing.  My accounts with mostly US stocks fared worse, up 10-12%, all of the accounts together are the 22% figure.

 

I'm glad to see some people reporting less than market beating numbers, it takes courage to post on a chest thumping thread, even better the mistakes made and lessons learned. 

 

I'm impressed with the returns on here, but they're really not different from an entrepreneur or angel investor who put all of their money into their own business, or two or three companies they know well.  I could never get comfortable with the invest in two or three things camp, but I applaud those who did, and even did it with leverage!!  For those willing to take the risk the return was commiserate. 

 

One final thought, these threads are a great example of self-selection bias.  There might be 50 or 100 posts of returns but the view counter will be in the thousands.  I realize people re-read the thread boosting the counter, but there are also a LOT of people reading who never post, I wonder what their returns are….

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~30.5% while holding a lot of cash and being pretty defensively positioned overall. Cash % was typically upwards of 30% but that range fluctuated significantly over the year as did the size of the short book (which ranged I'd guess between 10-20%).

 

Big winners in big positions like BYD-UN, SSL CN, SND CN, TARO, BAC (LEAPS) & PHH helped on the long side and a few concentrated bets like BV and GRPN (long puts), ANGI, YELP and FB helped on the short side. Made my far share of mistakes but thankfully was able to catch most of them early enough to minimize the damage.

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+38% for 2012. Largest positions at the close are BAC common, warrants, leaps 32%, USG %17, PRXI 9%, GRVY 6%, FFH 6%. 22 Positions total. BAC and USG were the big winners, biggest losers were YNGFF and GRVY, the later hasn't cost me anything but I had the chance to unload it at almost a 2 bagger and got greedy  :'(  But much better than last year where I lagged behind the index a little.

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2012: +44,02%

2011: +8,85%

 

Very concentrated portfolio, half of the portfolio in a German small-cap and the rest in several insurance stocks. + some Yen-Shorts

 

Hi orion,

could you tell us which German small-cap you are so heavily invested in? I would appreciate it very much!

Thank you,

 

giofranchi

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+26%

 

Dozens of positions.  No position started at larger than ~1% of portfolio.  I invest like my investing idols, Graham and Schloss.  I buy when things are very cheap and sell when they reach IV.  Cash never less than ~30%.  No leverage.

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+26%

 

Dozens of positions.  No position started at larger than ~1% of portfolio.  I invest like my investing idols, Graham and Schloss.  I buy when things are very cheap and sell when they reach IV.  Cash never less than ~30%.  No leverage.

 

Very impressive, congrats!

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+26%

 

Dozens of positions.  No position started at larger than ~1% of portfolio.  I invest like my investing idols, Graham and Schloss.  I buy when things are very cheap and sell when they reach IV.  Cash never less than ~30%.  No leverage.

 

Very impressive, congrats!

 

Thanks, congrats to you as well.  Your year was fantastic.

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2012: +44,02%

2011: +8,85%

 

Very concentrated portfolio, half of the portfolio in a German small-cap and the rest in several insurance stocks. + some Yen-Shorts

 

Hi orion,

could you tell us which German small-cap you are so heavily invested in? I would appreciate it very much!

Thank you,

 

giofranchi

 

Hi giofranchi,

 

the German small-cap is TAKKT AG. It is a B2B mail order company for furniture/ business equipment. Nice FCF, low CAPEX. Here is their latest company presentation: http://www.takkt.de/tl_files/download/German_Equity_Forum_TAKKT_2012.pdf

 

EDIT: This one gives a better overview: http://www.takkt.de/tl_files/download/Roadshow%20November%202012_neu_final.pdf

 

Only downside with this company is that their major shareholder wants the FCF via dividends.

 

orion

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2012: +44,02%

2011: +8,85%

 

Very concentrated portfolio, half of the portfolio in a German small-cap and the rest in several insurance stocks. + some Yen-Shorts

 

Hi orion,

could you tell us which German small-cap you are so heavily invested in? I would appreciate it very much!

Thank you,

 

giofranchi

 

Hi giofranchi,

 

the German small-cap is TAKKT AG. It is a B2B mail order company for furniture/ business equipment. Nice FCF, low CAPEX. Here is their latest company presentation: http://www.takkt.de/tl_files/download/German_Equity_Forum_TAKKT_2012.pdf

 

EDIT: This one gives a better overview: http://www.takkt.de/tl_files/download/Roadshow%20November%202012_neu_final.pdf

 

Only downside with this company is that their major shareholder wants the FCF via dividends.

 

orion

 

Great! Thank you very much!  :)

 

giofranchi

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+200% in 2012

 

mostly leveraged BAC, some leveraged AIG.

 

Congrats, I will need couple of this.

 

I could use a couple myself.  I'd have to do 200% 7 years in a row to be a Billionaire.  Difficult, but they say the first $Billion is the hardest.

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One final thought, these threads are a great example of self-selection bias.  There might be 50 or 100 posts of returns but the view counter will be in the thousands.  I realize people re-read the thread boosting the counter, but there are also a LOT of people reading who never post, I wonder what their returns are….

 

yes, this is one of my concerns as well--hopefully, given that it is an anonymous poll, most (maybe all!) will respond, even if they don't post anything.

 

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