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Fairfax down 8% this morning


wknecht

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Seems like last week was a Black Friday sale for FFH, but a week early. Bought a little at $348 and wish I had the money to have bought more. But congrats to those who filled their pockets below $350 because it could be a while before we see another opportunity like that again.

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I bought three times as much Fairfax as I wanted at $346 and then $340 becoming a first time Fairfax shareholder. I have since sold the extra 2/3 of my position because I'm not ready to leave that much money in Fairfax when Intel and Chesapeake preferred are going back on sale! My experience with FFH has been phenomenal thus far; no wonder this board is named for them  ;). 

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Ross, we're partners in Intel. I have a 10% target allocation on it. i'm at 6%+/- at the moment......

 

I'm at about 10% right now. I usually buy in steps and dollar cost average in every time it goes down 10%. I start with  2.5% -> 5% -> 10% -> 20% (I hope not with Intel, at $18.30 its going to get really nerve wrecking!)

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Ross,

 

I'm a tech newbie so I don't have much of a sense for what they do though i'm learning...

 

but by my math assuming declining sales for the next 3 years and lower margins, my calc still shows this company as fairly valued..in a nutshell, i'm assuming ROE of 10% which is significantly lower than their historical average....I get this by slashing margins by 50%....

 

as they're still the dominant force in (albeit declining) PCs and data servers, they still hold the keys to a decent cash flow generator....

 

if it goes down to 15 or even lower, i would be a even more happy buyer....

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According to the MSCI website, today is the date of change. I don't know enough to talk about when this selling pressure will fade and how many closet indexers there are out there left but the volume that has gone through over the past few weeks has been high enough to account for more than what the analysts have estimated to have been known sellers.

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I sold out of JNJ to increase my position by 66%!  I am really hoping Prem is repurchasing stock at the current price!!!! (I will continue to add when this is a discount to book)  Let's hope the dividend this year is $2/share (His minimum payout) and the remainder of the return of capital is in share repurchases.

 

Tks,

S

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