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RT - Ruby Tuesday


Gopinath
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Your writeup looks sound I only have one thought.

 

The reason I stay away from retail and restaurants is that they are fashionable.  What I mean is that friends will start talking about "have you been to xyz restaurant?"  We go a few times, everyone we know is going the place is packed etc.  About two years later I'll turn to my wife and say "wow we haven't been to xyz in years" so we go and the place is empty. 

 

Somehow these things go in fads or cycles.  I've experienced it as a consumer but I have no way to understand it as an investor so I just stay away.  I guess the question is what part of that cycle is Ruby Tuesday at?

 

I ate at a Ruby Tuesday probably four or five years ago, I couldn't tell you where one is close to us to save my life.  Not that this makes any difference at all.

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Well said which is why I also stay away from retail and restaurants as well.  (Its part of my check list along with staying away from the automotive and airline sector)

 

Your writeup looks sound I only have one thought.

 

The reason I stay away from retail and restaurants is that they are fashionable.  What I mean is that friends will start talking about "have you been to xyz restaurant?"  We go a few times, everyone we know is going the place is packed etc.  About two years later I'll turn to my wife and say "wow we haven't been to xyz in years" so we go and the place is empty. 

 

Somehow these things go in fads or cycles.  I've experienced it as a consumer but I have no way to understand it as an investor so I just stay away.  I guess the question is what part of that cycle is Ruby Tuesday at?

 

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  • 5 months later...

OK 2012

* Generated $74 million in free cash flow, defined as cash flow from operations less capital expenditures

* Total capital expenditures were $38 million

* Total book debt of $327 million compared to $344 million for the prior year, a decrease of $17 million.

* Completion of our $250 million bond offering provides us with a flexible, longer-term capital structure which we will leverage to execute on our long-term strategic plans.

* $48 million of cash on the balance sheet at quarter end compared to $9 million in the prior year.

 

Bad 2013

* Free Cash Flow for the year is estimated to be $20-$30 million. This range is unfavorable to the fiscal 2012 free cash flow of $74 million due to higher interest expense, CEO pension payout, higher capital expenditures, 53rd week impact, estimated lease reserve settlements from closed restaurants, changes in working capital, and slightly lower EBITDA.

* Diluted earnings per share for the year are estimated to be in the $0.20 to $0.30 range including the CEO pension expense and new CEO transition expenses. Excluding the impact of these items, diluted earnings per share for the year are estimated to be in the $0.24 to $0.34 range. Fully-diluted weighted average shares outstanding are estimated to be approximately 63-64 million for the year.

* Capital Expenditures for the year are estimated to be $44-$50 million

 

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  • 1 year later...

I'm starting to nose through the trash on this one.  I listened to the conference call last week.  MGMT says they're slowing sale-leasebacks this year.  CEO is bringing in more buddies from brinker.  They're moving their price point back down market.  Seems like a lot of problems stemmed from trying to move up market during the recession.  CEO still has a ton of unvested options that are under water until ~$14.

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  • 3 years later...

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