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HP to Spin Off PCs, Eyes Software Purchase


Liberty

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I went to walmart (gone), best buy (gone) and finally found a couple at HH Greg. Man, this is a sweet deal!

 

Myth, where did you order yours?

 

I ordered one from the HP site last night. Just hoping it ships, and that a hacked Android version comes out in a few weeks. Though Webos looks ok for a few months. The main issue it seems is lack of app support.

 

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The selloff seems warranted. HP appears to be rotter-less. They are selling off businesses at 4x - 5x cash flow, shutting down operations they bought a few years ago, and  paying 10x revenue for new businesses which dont appear to have a moat.....

 

They should buy SAP or something if they want to be in software.

 

All this has shown me that I dont know much bout tech, though I still think WD is a good deal.

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I went to walmart (gone), best buy (gone) and finally found a couple at HH Greg. Man, this is a sweet deal!

 

Myth, where did you order yours?

 

I ordered one from the HP site last night. Just hoping it ships, and that a hacked Android version comes out in a few weeks. Though Webos looks ok for a few months. The main issue it seems is lack of app support.

 

Yeah, they're out of stock now. My mom wants one, too. Good luck on getting yours! :)

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All this has shown me that I dont know much bout tech, though I still think WD is a good deal.

 

Myth - This stupidity of HP management does not prove that you don't understand tech. This is a stupid decision and decisions like this can be made by management team in other fields as well. Though, In Tech field it seems we are getting more than fair share of value destroying capital allocators.

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I think his thinking that Software will become even more dominant is true. It will increase the productivity by transforming some old ways of doing things. But his talk about ignoring the valuation and only focusing on how software is changing the world is wrong.

 

We have had many new things( radio, television, airplane etc) bringing huge change and all of them were very beneficial for human society but that does not mean they were good investment at any price.

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I couldn't land the $99 version, but I did pay up at Office Deopt. $129.99, $141 after taxes, for a product that may cost $318 to produce.

 

Man, go back and have them price match Walmart.  Local walmarts are selling the 16gb version for $99.  I just picked up a whole bunch.

 

Thanks, but this is why some people (me) shouldn't be traders.

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All this has shown me that I dont know much bout tech, though I still think WD is a good deal.

 

Myth - This stupidity of HP management does not prove that you don't understand tech. This is a stupid decision and decisions like this can be made by management team in other fields as well. Though, In Tech field it seems we are getting more than fair share of value destroying capital allocators.

 

Good point. This will be interesting to watch. The hottest device over the last 2 days on the net is now HPs tablet. Interesting times.

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Without any knowledge of Autonomy or the $10Bn price/valuation/etc., I remember a thread here debating why Blockbuster should have paid any price for Netflix to be relevant.  If HP doesn't do this transaction, maybe they feel they won't be here 10 years from now.  I don't agree with that logic and I think Hurd did a truly horrid job. 

 

 

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BTW, Marc Andreeson isn't just your average VC.  He's one of the original Mosaic developers and co-founder of Netscape.  He's made a further fortune in his VC investments (Facebook, et al).  He's a software guy at heart.  I didn't know he was on the HP board, I think that's a big plus for the company (too bad he's not running it!)

 

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/fortune/0910/gallery.40_under_40.fortune/10.html

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BTW, Marc Andreeson isn't just your average VC.  He's one of the original Mosaic developers and co-founder of Netscape.  He's made a further fortune in his VC investments (Facebook, et al).  He's a software guy at heart.  I didn't know he was on the HP board, I think that's a big plus for the company (too bad he's not running it!)

 

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/fortune/0910/gallery.40_under_40.fortune/10.html

 

I don't distrust his writing because he is dumb; I distrust his writing because he is vested.  You know who is really smart and made a fortune too? The structure finance salesmen at Goldman. 

 

It's one thing to say software will have a bigger presence in the future; it's another to say, therefore, valuation is secondary.  You know what I guarantee will have a big presence many years in the future? Solar (in some form.)  But that doesn't mean I'd put a penny into a solar stock.

 

VC guys and PE guys are salesman.  Their job is to incubate and flip.  And be very suspicious of the person who makes money on the flip. 

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In addition to their horrible acquisitions, HPQ repurchased $7.4 billion of stock at an average cost of $38 per share in 2010.

 

That does not look so bad considering recent earnings ($4+) and that the economy has not recovered. The problems with HPQ are more with their acquisitive past (Compaq, EDS, Pal, 3Par).

 

I am considering including HPQ in the "5xFCF BigCap Club". Current Inductees: DELL, XRX, AIG. With the first two buying back shares big time.  I did not include RIMM, and HPQ is probably in that camp too, because that these turnarounds are already turning.

 

Any others?

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HP is too directionless for me to get interested in.  I also suspect that they'll be losing (if it hasn't already happened in the past 10 years) a lot of good engineers, and that this'll hurt them a lot.

 

Not saying it's not possible to make money in the stock - like with RIMM and MSFT - but I'm looking to be comfortable with both price and the company's technology/roadmap/culture, and while price is hard to beat, I'm not comfortable with the latter in HPQ.

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BTW, Marc Andreeson isn't just your average VC.  He's one of the original Mosaic developers and co-founder of Netscape.  He's made a further fortune in his VC investments (Facebook, et al).  He's a software guy at heart.  I didn't know he was on the HP board, I think that's a big plus for the company (too bad he's not running it!)

 

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/fortune/0910/gallery.40_under_40.fortune/10.html

 

Yeah, this quote kind of says it all:

"Five years out of the University of Illinois, Andreessen sold his first startup, Netscape Communications, to AOL for $4.2 billion."

 

We all know how well that turned out for AOL and AOL shareholders.. 

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according to morningstar, andereessen has a total of about $500,000 worth of stock in HPQ. I can't say that is really all that much from a net worth perspective.

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What a great "value" -- All sold out in my neck of the woods.

 

But I added my name to the HP website signup to be alerted if/when they get more in stock.

 

I may not get one, but it's likely they some production in process.

 

Amazon still hasn't reduced prices!

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With so many sales just over a couple of days, they should keep doing this for a month or so, and then "change their mind" and keep the Touchpad running.

 

The problem is they're probably selling it below cost, and I doubt sales would continue at that level if they brought it back to the price at which they make a decent margin.

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