Cryptocurrencies

[TwoCitiesCapital]

I don't disagree at crypto's prevalence. I know a TON of people in it. I think the difference versus the dotcom bubble is that most people I know in it have like $200-300 in it. They're f*cking around with Shiba and Dogecoin hoping it'll 100x - very, very few with anything substantial at risk and basically nobody trading on margin or leverage. 

 

Very few understand Bitcoin or the value prop and very few have anything worthwhile in it. Despite that - it's use cases are growing. Most retail traders I know are messing with Ethereum and shitcoins.

 

As pointed out, the market has gone from $3T to $700B. Most altcoins are down 80-90% already. Retail has been missing from the market since last summer. Companies are falling apart left and right and declaring bankruptcy. I think we're very near we're bottom if the capitulation event hasn't already occurred. 

 

If you're looking to enter the market, now is likely not a bad entry point with a 2-3 year time horizon. BTC has gone down 80+% multiple times - each time bottoming many multiples of the prior bottom and hitting highs many multiples of the prior top. The fundamentals of the network are still growing. 

 

[Longnose]

52 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I don't disagree at crypto's prevalence. I know a TON of people in it. I think the difference versus the dotcom bubble is that most people I know in it have like $200-300 in it. They're f*cking around with Shiba and Dogecoin hoping it'll 100x - very, very few with anything substantial at risk and basically nobody trading on margin or leverage. 

 

Very few understand Bitcoin or the value prop and very few have anything worthwhile in it. Despite that - it's use cases are growing. Most retail traders I know are messing with Ethereum and shitcoins.

 

As pointed out, the market has gone from $3T to $700B. Most altcoins are down 80-90% already. Retail has been missing from the market since last summer. Companies are falling apart left and right and declaring bankruptcy. I think we're very near we're bottom if the capitulation event hasn't already occurred. 

 

If you're looking to enter the market, now is likely not a bad entry point with a 2-3 year time horizon. BTC has gone down 80+% multiple times - each time bottoming many multiples of the prior bottom and hitting highs many multiples of the prior top. The fundamentals of the network are still growing. 

 

^^This

I've helped several friends take the leap to buy some crypto. Out of those I have helped probably less than 50% actually understand what they are buying and really just wanted help to get into some sort of shitcoin with a few hundred dollars on the hope that it 100X's.

 

Then the few of us that understand the power of bitcoin continue to add our positions. BTC isn't going anywhere and adoption is only going to continue to grow for global ecommerce transactions. IMO it will become the currency of the internet once the lightning network gets further built out. 

 

I wish I could have all my assets in a wallet and not a bank... 

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I don't disagree at crypto's prevalence. I know a TON of people in it. I think the difference versus the dotcom bubble is that most people I know in it have like $200-300 in it. They're f*cking around with Shiba and Dogecoin hoping it'll 100x - very, very few with anything substantial at risk and basically nobody trading on margin or leverage. 

 

Very few understand Bitcoin or the value prop and very few have anything worthwhile in it. Despite that - it's use cases are growing. Most retail traders I know are messing with Ethereum and shitcoins.

 

As pointed out, the market has gone from $3T to $700B. Most altcoins are down 80-90% already. Retail has been missing from the market since last summer. Companies are falling apart left and right and declaring bankruptcy. I think we're very near we're bottom if the capitulation event hasn't already occurred. 

 

If you're looking to enter the market, now is likely not a bad entry point with a 2-3 year time horizon. BTC has gone down 80+% multiple times - each time bottoming many multiples of the prior bottom and hitting highs many multiples of the prior top. The fundamentals of the network are still growing. 

 

Thanks, not a bad take. I also think we might not be far from the bottom here for the time being.

[SharperDingaan]

16 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I don't disagree at crypto's prevalence. I know a TON of people in it. I think the difference versus the dotcom bubble is that most people I know in it have like $200-300 in it. They're f*cking around with Shiba and Dogecoin hoping it'll 100x - very, very few with anything substantial at risk and basically nobody trading on margin or leverage. 

 

Very few understand Bitcoin or the value prop and very few have anything worthwhile in it. Despite that - it's use cases are growing. Most retail traders I know are messing with Ethereum and shitcoins.

 

As pointed out, the market has gone from $3T to $700B. Most altcoins are down 80-90% already. Retail has been missing from the market since last summer. Companies are falling apart left and right and declaring bankruptcy. I think we're very near we're bottom if the capitulation event hasn't already occurred. 

 

If you're looking to enter the market, now is likely not a bad entry point with a 2-3 year time horizon. BTC has gone down 80+% multiple times - each time bottoming many multiples of the prior bottom and hitting highs many multiples of the prior top. The fundamentals of the network are still growing. 

 

 

This changes quite a bit, once people have taken a course in fintech .....

 

The token $ investment is primarily just to learn the app's, and how to use them; the $100 in Shite Coin is just for the experience. Little different to paying a monthly fee to Amazon, to access the services Amazon provides, and buying a pair of tickets to some event.

 

The more mature folks buy a crypto ETF, and average into it via a monthly purchase. The intent being either to raise a down payment in 5-10 years, or fund a child's future university education in 15-20 years. Use the time to become comfortable with its evolution, trade the developing opportunities as you see them, and position yourself to have a stake in the changing technology. 

 

SD

 

 

[Red Lion]

On 7/2/2022 at 4:34 PM, rkbabang said:

Yup, it’s going to be a bloodbath. I’m loving it.  My prediction is a huge sell off from here and over 50% of the shitcoins go to zero. Buy Bitcoin when everyone you talk to has sold, thinks it’s a scam, and is as pessimistic as everyone on this board is.

As an outsider, where would one buy Bitcoin the most safely for an investment? 

 

These Crypto companies aren't brokerages, and if your broker goes bankrupt or there's a run on the bank situation, you're SOL / have some claim for pennies on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding possibly. 

 

So how do you avoid this risk? Keeping BTC on a hard drive or something? 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

4 minutes ago, RedLion said:

As an outsider, where would one buy Bitcoin the most safely for an investment? 

 

These Crypto companies aren't brokerages, and if your broker goes bankrupt or there's a run on the bank situation, you're SOL / have some claim for pennies on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding possibly. 

 

So how do you avoid this risk? Keeping BTC on a hard drive or something? 

 

There are hard wallets and soft wallets where you can self-custody. There's risk involved here as well, but it's on you and not a third party. 

 

I have a hardware wallet from Ledger where I keep most of my crypto. I buy on exchanges and transfer once the balance is high enough where the fees to move are worthwhile. 

[Spekulatius]

8 minutes ago, RedLion said:

As an outsider, where would one buy Bitcoin the most safely for an investment? 

 

These Crypto companies aren't brokerages, and if your broker goes bankrupt or there's a run on the bank situation, you're SOL / have some claim for pennies on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding possibly. 

 

So how do you avoid this risk? Keeping BTC on a hard drive or something? 

You can buy both Ethereum and bitcoin in Interactive Brokers now.

[Red Lion]

Thank you for the advice. I've always shied away from crypto, might consider taking a tiny position in BTC / ETH particularly if the selloff continues or accelerates. Seeing a lot of stocks that I think are a lot more likely not to be a zero though, so that's probably where I will continue to focus. 

[plato1976]

On 7/2/2022 at 7:19 PM, Parsad said:

 

Again, I wouldn't touch the currencies, but certainly would look at the infrastructure companies in blockchain and crypto.  Look at Overstock.com, which I own a lot of now and will keep buying if it goes down further. 

 

$1.1B market cap, profitable retail business, $450M in cash on the books, $2.5B in revenues, virtually no debt...essentially you are buying the company for $600M...a quarter of revenues...and that doesn't even include their huge blockchain investment in Medici Ventures LP...which could be worth $1B or $20B! 

 

If that Medici option ever kicks in, it could be the cheapest stock on the market right now.  In the mean time, just the retail business itself is worth 2-3x what it trades for right now.  

 

https://pelionvp.com/

 

Cheers!

Before the pandemic Overstock was traded below 10 and now it's still above 20 after the crash, what significantly changed during the pandemic as far as Overstock's business is concerned?

 

[Longnose]

15 minutes ago, plato1976 said:

Before the pandemic Overstock was traded below 10 and now it's still above 20 after the crash, what significantly changed during the pandemic as far as Overstock's business is concerned?

 

@Parsad knows a lot about overstock and may have an opinion. 

[Longnose]

55 minutes ago, RedLion said:

As an outsider, where would one buy Bitcoin the most safely for an investment? 

 

These Crypto companies aren't brokerages, and if your broker goes bankrupt or there's a run on the bank situation, you're SOL / have some claim for pennies on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding possibly. 

 

So how do you avoid this risk? Keeping BTC on a hard drive or something? 

 

I buy on Coinbase and similar to @TwoCitiesCapital I transfer it out of the exchange to various wallets once the balance is high enough to justify and any fees. 

 

For ETH based tokens and other alt coins I use metamask wallet. (very versatile and most commonly accepted for decentralized applications)

 

For BTC I use Exodus wallet and Trust Wallet. (I will eventually set up a hardware wallet but haven't bothered yet)

[crs223]

2 hours ago, RedLion said:

So how do you avoid this risk? Keeping BTC on a hard drive or something? 

Your bitcoin is stored in the blockchain… “in the cloud”.  All you keep is the “password”.  This is not a password that you make up rather it is essentially given to you to keep safe.  It is very long and complex and is stored as a file on your hard drive.

 

You can keep this “password” on your computer hard drive — where it can be stolen by hackers.  You can also put this file on an external USB drive and keep that external drive In a safe place such as a safe deposit box. Or, you can even print out the password and keep the paper printout in a safe place.

[SharperDingaan]

We hold our crypto as an ETF, as direct purchase just isn't worth the cost/wallet/infrastructure risk. ETF's are diversified, professionally managed, and out of our 'mind space' - dentists don't do their own teeth.

 

We want a flyer we either do it using a cash/index pair. or CME options/futures - via a mainstream broker. Could care less which broker, as long as the account is protected under industry regulation. The broker goes under, we're getting our position back - even if it takes a while.   

 

SD

Edited July 8, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[rkbabang]

On 7/6/2022 at 10:37 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I don't disagree at crypto's prevalence. I know a TON of people in it. I think the difference versus the dotcom bubble is that most people I know in it have like $200-300 in it. They're f*cking around with Shiba and Dogecoin hoping it'll 100x - very, very few with anything substantial at risk and basically nobody trading on margin or leverage. 

 

Very few understand Bitcoin or the value prop and very few have anything worthwhile in it. Despite that - it's use cases are growing. Most retail traders I know are messing with Ethereum and shitcoins.

 

As pointed out, the market has gone from $3T to $700B. Most altcoins are down 80-90% already. Retail has been missing from the market since last summer. Companies are falling apart left and right and declaring bankruptcy. I think we're very near we're bottom if the capitulation event hasn't already occurred. 

 

If you're looking to enter the market, now is likely not a bad entry point with a 2-3 year time horizon. BTC has gone down 80+% multiple times - each time bottoming many multiples of the prior bottom and hitting highs many multiples of the prior top. The fundamentals of the network are still growing. 

 

Exactly. Every market has people who don’t understand what they’re doing or what they are investing in and trying to get rich quick. These people are often hurt when the market turns.  Crypto, being a new type of asset, is even more prone to this than more mature markets. It is what it is and it presents massive opportunities for people with more knowledge and patience. 

[rkbabang]

20 hours ago, RedLion said:

As an outsider, where would one buy Bitcoin the most safely for an investment? 

 

These Crypto companies aren't brokerages, and if your broker goes bankrupt or there's a run on the bank situation, you're SOL / have some claim for pennies on the dollar in a bankruptcy proceeding possibly. 

 

So how do you avoid this risk? Keeping BTC on a hard drive or something? 

I’ve been using Coinbase to buy it, then once I have accumulated a larger amount than I am comfortable with them holding I move it to my own private wallets where I hold the private keys. There is a saying: Not your keys, not your crypto.

 

If you are only going to buy small amounts, holding on Coinbase is probably relatively safe for the near future, I usually don’t move it until I have $5K or more in there, just realize that there is risk to doing that. Coinbase could get hacked, or go bankrupt tomorrow and you could lose your balance.

A good exercise to learn about doing all this would be to buy a hundred dollars worth and practice moving it to a private wallet and then moving half to another private wallet, just so you get a feel for how it works. Print out the private key and then try restoring the wallet by typing in the key to a new device. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by rkbabang

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, rkbabang said:

I’ve been using Coinbase to buy it, then once I have accumulated a larger amount than I am comfortable with them holding I move it to my own private wallets where I hold the private keys. There is a saying: Not your keys, not your crypto.

 

If you are only going to buy small amounts, holding on Coinbase is probably relatively safe for the near future, I usually don’t move it until I have $5K or more in there, just realize that there is risk to doing that. Coinbase could get hacked, or go bankrupt tomorrow and you could lose your balance.

A good exercise to learn about doing all this would be to buy a hundred dollars worth and practice moving it to a private wallet and then moving half to another private wallet, just so you get a feel for how it works. Print out the private key and then try restoring the wallet by typing in the key to a new device. 

 

Would also add that Coinbase Pro requires NO minimum trading or additional fees, but offers the ability to do limit orders and has lower commissions. 

 

Other than a slight cleaner UI, there's basically no reason anyone should use Coinbase over Coinbase Pro that I can see. 

[rkbabang]

11 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Would also add that Coinbase Pro requires NO minimum trading or additional fees, but offers the ability to do limit orders and has lower commissions. 

 

Other than a slight cleaner UI, there's basically no reason anyone should use Coinbase over Coinbase Pro that I can see. 

Coinbase Pro is being discontinued and those features are all coming to Coinbase. But right now, you are correct.

 

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-to-shut-down-coinbase-pro-to-merge-trading-services

[randomep]

On 7/7/2022 at 4:04 PM, crs223 said:

Your bitcoin is stored in the blockchain… “in the cloud”.  All you keep is the “password”.  This is not a password that you make up rather it is essentially given to you to keep safe.  It is very long and complex and is stored as a file on your hard drive.

 

You can keep this “password” on your computer hard drive — where it can be stolen by hackers.  You can also put this file on an external USB drive and keep that external drive In a safe place such as a safe deposit box. Or, you can even print out the password and keep the paper printout in a safe place.

 

ok a really simple question here:

 

is one of the purposes of coinbase and other such sites a place to keep your wallet? if so, they have no right to withhold your keys or spend it right? so when companies like voyager goes bankrupty they are withholding clients money not crypto?

 

caveat, I work in asic design I know technology.... just don't want to spend too many brain cells on this stuff

[Longnose]

Coinbase does not hold your wallet. 

 

There is a coinbase wallet that is separate but coinbase is an exchange not a wallet. 

 

Significant difference between a wallet and an exchange. 

 

Think of a wallet as your actual physical wallet. It holds your money. It holds your ID. It holds important info and its yours. When your money is at coinbase its an exchange where you can swap $$ for crypto or other assets. but in the end  you can send it back to your wallet. 

 

Even right now TD ameritrade or fidelity or whatever exchange your use technically hold your stocks for you and you hold legal right to them (unless you request physical stock certificates). But you dont hold them. If they were digital tokens you could transfer those stocks to your digital wallet. Then you own them. 

 

You give your money to voyager. they are holding your money. If they dont have it to give back to you. then you only have what the legal system gives your right to sue for. 

Edited July 10, 2022 by Longnose

[crs223]

7 hours ago, randomep said:

purposes of coinbase and other such sites a place to keep your wallet?

Coinbase is more like TDameritrade.  You don’t give TDAmeritrade your checking acct password… you give them your money.  Using their website you “buy” stock which TDameritrade holds.

 

And you assume TDAmeritrade really has your money and really has your stock.

[randomep]

5 hours ago, crs223 said:

Coinbase is more like TDameritrade.  You don’t give TDAmeritrade your checking acct password… you give them your money.  Using their website you “buy” stock which TDameritrade holds.

 

And you assume TDAmeritrade really has your money and really has your stock.

well, after a quick read online, coinbase is not exactly like my broker, with my broker I only posses a id and password, all my stock certificates and money is held at my broker; coinbase can either be the custodian of my wallet or I can have self-custody of my wallet; and in the latter case if I lose my wallet (eg. my phone) i lose my crypto coins...... 

 

am I correct? 

[Longnose]

2 hours ago, randomep said:

well, after a quick read online, coinbase is not exactly like my broker, with my broker I only posses a id and password, all my stock certificates and money is held at my broker; coinbase can either be the custodian of my wallet or I can have self-custody of my wallet; and in the latter case if I lose my wallet (eg. my phone) i lose my crypto coins...... 

 

am I correct? 

 

Your wallet is not "your phone" Your wallet in most cases. is a 12 - 24 series of words. That create a hexadecimal key referencing your wallet on the block chain. you can recover your "wallet" on any device with that 12 -24 word phrase. 

 

Example your a refugee in ukraine. Your city gets destroyed you lose your phone. you some how manage to make it to a safe location someday. You have your seed phrase memorized. you connect to that phrase on a new device. You have your assets again. (cryto coins, maybe someday in the future your stocks, title to property, etc. ) 

 

While coinbase offers a wallet the base exchange is still not a wallet. 

 

Give this exercise mentioned by  @rkbabanga try. 

On 7/8/2022 at 10:43 AM, rkbabang said:

A good exercise to learn about doing all this would be to buy a hundred dollars worth and practice moving it to a private wallet and then moving half to another private wallet, just so you get a feel for how it works. Print out the private key and then try restoring the wallet by typing in the key to a new device. 

Edited July 10, 2022 by Longnose

[SharperDingaan]

Your broker could collapse tomorrow, taking your money and certs with it. 

If the broker was regulated, the industry would subsequently collectively step in to make you whole again, but it could take years until you can access your wealth again. However, for most applications, this is adequate.

 

If you want the greater protection you need the encrypted wallet, and it is where the bulk of your portable wealth should be kept, inclusive of your block certs, bullion receipts, NFT's, etc. In the Ukraine example, digital versions of your school and university certificates, property deeds, will, asset provenances. etc. Each document stored in a block, requiring a Smart Contract to open it, with the private keys stored in the wallet. 

 

SD

 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[rkbabang]

An excellent crypto wallet is Exodus (https://www.exodus.com). It is available for phones or computers. Create a wallet, then write down the seed phrase. You can then delete the app completely and restore the wallet using that seed phrase either into another Exodus install or any other wallet that uses 12 word seed phrases will also usually work as the algorithm is a standard.  Once you have the wallet’s seed phrase written down or memorized, it is a good idea to delete the wallet app from your device so if you are ever hacked they can’t access your wallet. You can use your seed to re-create your wallet any time you need to.

 

Everything you need to know about your 12-word secret recovery phrase

https://support.exodus.com/article/925-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-secret-recovery-phrase#1824word

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Probably too soon to call it - but damnit of this relief rally doesn't feel good after the last few months. 

 

The Celsius bankruptcy is going to be interesting and may have marked the bottom. The claims forms are all denominated in $ despite what they owe me being denominated in various crypto with ever changing dollar valuations - the system wasn't yet ready for a crypto bankruptcy.