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BRK targeting which companies at what price?


james22

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4 hours ago, james22 said:

Your guess?

 

AAPL @ $135?

AMZN @ $2,000?

GOOG @ $2,000?

 

 

In what year do we think each of the following will happen?

(1) AAPL generates $13.5 FCF per share annually

(2) AMZN generates $200 FCF per share annually

(3) GOOG generates $200 FCF per share annually

 

Seems like it will be many years from now, no?

 

Edited by LearningMachine
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if aapl is his tech proxy he won't buy the others unless he switches out wholesale probably...

brk seems to be a conglomerate of efficiency in various categories. i've seldom seen him double up except when taking a starter position in some industry of 2-4 names and then either consolidate into 1 or dump them all if his thesis changes.

Edited by scorpioncapital
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3 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

AAPL @ $125.07?

Yeah, apple is an interesting one. I just wonder how much earnings growth we can see the next decade. Services etc are growing fast, emerging markets like india can also be conquered. Combine that with the buybacks and maybe some innovative products, +10% IRR. 

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If WB was a younger man I think he would go after 3M

 

In the year 2000 they bought Johns Manville for a 2 billion, JM at the time was trading at 1.1 times sales and had a huge liability overhang due to asbestos. JM had started paying out to sick employees as early as 1933 but really got in trouble in the late 80's (this is where 3m is now) It took a decade for them to build up a trust for future liabilities and was hampering the companies ability to operate, Buffet saved the day by guaranteeing the company would stay solvent and the liabilities would be settled. The jobs were saved and the injured compensated. For this guarantee from buffet he paid 5 times earnings and was able to work out a deal to limit the future liability to something he could tolerate.

 

3M now has a huge liability overhang with the PFAS chemicals and looks like they are going to end up having to build out a liability trust as well. Ive seen numbers into the 100 of billions in liability to the groups involved.  3M's share may be as much as 30 Billion. The chemicals don't break down, great for keeping you pots and pans slick, shoes and carpets dry or food wrappers from degrading but not what you want bioaccumulating in your body. Scotchgard and Teflon are examples of the uses. The chemicals are literally in everything we touch and consume from clothing to the epoxy coating the inside of a can of beans.

 

3m is the poster child for PFAS but there are hundreds of companies who made and used them. Du pont was the inventor but 3M manufactured and distributed the majority of it. There is evidence showing 3m and others were aware of the bioaccumulation but not necessarily the negative health effects. If conclusive evidence is found that they knew of the health effects and tried to keep it quiet it may be lights out for 3m ( somehow tobacco and cola has survived )

 

3M is in big trouble, but they also have 95,000 employees and 60,000 products that are used everyday and will not go down without a fight. A younger buffet with his actuarial genius would probably be licking his lips.

 

Too hard pile for me but thought it was interesting since we all use 3M products every day.

 

 

 

 

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On 2/1/2023 at 9:40 AM, james22 said:

 

Significantly invested in 3M (via a Trust), I'd love to see it.

I don’t think he would at this point. He only knowingly went into asbestos when the extend of liabilities were better known after Manville went through bankruptcy. The same could happen with 3M.

 

I personally would not touch 3M stock with a 10 foot pole at this point.

Edited by Spekulatius
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On 2/11/2023 at 5:44 PM, Spekulatius said:

I don’t think he would at this point. He only knowingly went into asbestos when the extend of liabilities were better known after Manville went through bankruptcy. The same could happen with 3M.

 

I personally would not touch 3M stock with a 10 foot pole at this point.


Are the lawsuits really that bad? 

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16 hours ago, Castanza said:


Are the lawsuits really that bad? 

The forever chemical lawsuit looks a bit like asbestos to me. Berkshire would not buy a  business with open ended liabilities like this because this is the sort of thing that could bring the entire company down.

 

The combat earplug lawsuit is likely is expensive but manageable.

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The end result is unknown. That’s is the issue. It took 30 years for the asbestos lawsuits to bring down Johns manville. They finally entered a protected state so the liabilities would not go unpaid. 
 

BRK paid a great price considering the assets with the understanding that the liability would be capped. 
 

mmm lawsuits will go on for another decade before a number can be placed on the liability. 

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