Where Does the Global Economy Go From Here?

[Gregmal]

Just now, Castanza said:

You’re only as useless as your ability to search YouTube for “How To” vids

Idk man. There are few things in life worse than messing up a boat launch. Hard pass for me. 

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, Castanza said:

You’re only as useless as your ability to search YouTube for “How To” vids

I do this for little jobs like replacing car headlights (which can be a bit tricky in some newer cars). Saves me a hundred here and there for little work.

Engine work can become quite a project though and you actually get dirty in the process. That's where I draw the line. LOL

[gfp]

20 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Idk man. There are few things in life worse than messing up a boat launch. Hard pass for me. 

 

Ha!  Yeah especially with the crowds waiting to launch at most boat launches these days.  Lots of eyes on you!  My mother couldn't back up a vehicle to save her life (without a trailer), so I've been the one to launch boats since I was 11 years old.  Got US Power squadron boat license at 12.  I may be better in reverse with a trailer than I am headed forward by this point - but you definitely want to be in a vehicle that can handle the size of boat you're dealing with or it can go real bad real fast!

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I do this for little jobs like replacing car headlights (which can be a bit tricky in some newer cars). Saves me a hundred here and there for little work.

Engine work can become quite a project though and you actually get dirty in the process. That's where I draw the line. LOL

LOL well at least you’re honest. No there is definitely some stuff I won’t mess with (mostly engine stuff). Vehicles have gotten really complicated and require a lot of special tools. Not worth the hassle anymore. My FIL still changes his oil…in his driveway…during the winter. Lol it’s what? $20 service fee at Jiffy Lube? 

 

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Idk man. There are few things in life worse than messing up a boat launch. Hard pass for me. 

Haha yeah I’ve seen some of those failed boat launch vids. Understandable

[ERICOPOLY]

3 hours ago, thepupil said:

I looked into buying a boat recently. For a center console that I could fish the bay with, whether i spent $20k or $200k on the boat, fuel maintainance, winter storage, slip fees, insurance m, etc would be $10-$20k/year in my area. Decided to forget about it and charter/rent from other owners for $500-600/day. Do it 20x / year, it’s still cheaper. 

 

My driveway has room for a boat trailer and I'm living 1.5 miles from the boat launch at Folsom Lake.  So it got me thinking about whether a boat would be a decent way of generating cash.  

[nafregnum]

20 hours ago, Castanza said:

 

You can't talk about everything you mentioned without discussing expectations of millennials.

...

 

To me it shows priorities and expectations of people are way tf off. Personal accountability and responsibility are at all time lows. 

 

@TwoCitiesCapital Also not saying you're wrong with the end thinking millennials probably share. Everyone is a product of their environment. 

 

 

 

Yup this hits the nail on the head. It showcases the priorities and expectations of most millennials. It's a gotta have it all, gotta have it now generation. 

 

The expectations are way off, partly because of a side effect of social media.  This is my favorite online essay about that.

 

https://waitbutwhy.com/2013/09/why-generation-y-yuppies-are-unhappy.html

 

I love the formula given: Happiness = Reality - Expectations

 

[Pelagic]

17 minutes ago, Castanza said:

LOL well at least you’re honest. No there is definitely some stuff I won’t mess with (mostly engine stuff). Vehicles have gotten really complicated and require a lot of special tools. Not worth the hassle anymore. My FIL still changes his oil…in his driveway…during the winter. Lol it’s what? $20 service fee at Jiffy Lube? 

 

Agreed regarding increasing complexity in vehicles but modern outboard engines have really made an effort to make changing your own oil and performing basic maintenance quite easy. Once you buy an oil pump for like $40 it's relatively clean too. Have to give credit to the engineers that designed Mercury's line of new outboards in this regard, it's very easy for just about anyone to do their own maintenance.

 

@ERICOPOLY You can check out https://www.boatsetter.com/ or https://www.boataround.com/us they're rental platforms that handle the insurance aspect and take something in the order of 30% commission on the listing. I know a few people who have rented through them, although usually they required the guests to hire a captain for the boat. A no frills pontoon boat could definitely make money in the right location. 

[Spekulatius]

14 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

 

Agreed regarding increasing complexity in vehicles but modern outboard engines have really made an effort to make changing your own oil and performing basic maintenance quite easy. Once you buy an oil pump for like $40 it's relatively clean too. Have to give credit to the engineers that designed Mercury's line of new outboards in this regard, it's very easy for just about anyone to do their own maintenance.

 

@ERICOPOLY You can check out https://www.boatsetter.com/ or https://www.boataround.com/us they're rental platforms that handle the insurance aspect and take something in the order of 30% commission on the listing. I know a few people who have rented through them, although usually they required the guests to hire a captain for the boat. A no frills pontoon boat could definitely make money in the right location. 

I have spent some time at our friends construction site a lake (no work, just fun) last weekend and couldn't help but look at the brand of engines from the boats cruising around:

 

I counted:

Mercury: 9

Honda: 1

 

That's bullish for $BC (don't own it though) , I guess. Back a few years ago, I recall seeing a lot of Yamaha's.

[bizaro86]

11 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said:

I have been trying to figure out what the fattest return is with virtually zero liability.  It may be Home Depot with the carpet blower

 

Home Depot rents these things for $50 per day

https://www.homedepot.com/p/B-Air-VP-20-1-5-HP-Air-Mover-for-Water-Damage-Restoration-Carpet-Dryer-Floor-Blower-Fan-Home-and-Plumbing-Use-in-Blue-BA-VP-20-BL/303793378

 

The biggest agency problem I'm aware of is restoration firms. "Your 600 square foot condo had a leak above it, we're going to need 6x 50 HP fans and 3x huge dehumidifiers to get it dried out" 

 

(Inside voice: we'll leave them in for a week, which is at least an extra 3 days, and charge the insurance company more than the cost of buying the machines to use them every 2nd day. Plus that's double the number you'd actually need.)

 

Don't worry, you'll just pay the deductible and the busy insurance adjuster will approve the claim.

 

Now water damage deductibles for condo buildings are 50-250k where I live (up from 2k-5k 5-10 years ago)

[LearningMachine]

Haven't fully watched it yet, but probably worth watching: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/08/watch-fed-chair-jerome-powell-speak-live-in-qa-at-the-cato-institute.html . 

 

Happened to skip to the part where Powell is saying inflation is not correlated with money supply now a days.   

 

Reminds me of the story Buffett told at the Annual Meeting at https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2022/05/02/afternoon-session---2022-meeting.html where he is alluding that even inflation maybe not be immediately correlated to money supply, all the extra money printed over long time that didn't get spent earlier to show up in inflation is coming to roost:
 

Quote

 Now, while you’re absorbing that, think for a moment what would happen if the U.S. government said, well, they work it out in private and they decide that they’re going to send, the Federal Reserve, and I’m not going to blame the Federal Reserve for this, someone back in Washington decides they’re going to send out $1 million to every household in the United States.

SYNC VIDEO TO PARAGRAPH

And there are 130 million households in the United States or something like that, you know? And they’re going to mail you $1 million in cash. And there were a couple provisions attached to it. One is if you talked about it in the next 30 days, the money disappeared.

 

So just like in one of those old TV shows or something, and poof, disappears. And after 30 days you could spend it. Well, all of a sudden, the household wealth of the United States, the Federal Reserve puts out an estimate, is $130 trillion or something like that.

 

So basically, you’ve doubled the household wealth. And all you’ve done is mailed out people, but then you don’t tell them you’re doing it with everybody. You just say they won the lottery, or whatever it may be. And now you’ve got an amount equal to household wealth.

 

On average people have doubled. They’ve got this extra $130 trillion of wealth. And in a month, they can spend it. Well, what’s going to happen? Well, prices are going to go up. But are they going to go up immediately? Well, you don’t know the other guy got it, you just know you’ve got it, so you don’t really feel like you’ve got to rush out and buy things.

Continued at https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2022/05/02/afternoon-session---2022-meeting.html

 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by LearningMachine

[Gregmal]

Who cares what Powell has to say? It’s still rather remarkable to me that people sit around and make investment decisions based off of what some guy might say or do. Worst case they read this wrong just like they did last year and raise rates too much and then you get to buy some stocks when the computer boys bid them down cuz they don’t want to hold anything for a few months. 

[changegonnacome]

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Ball-et-al-Conference-Draft-BPEA-FA22.pdf

[RedLion]

4 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

My driveway has room for a boat trailer and I'm living 1.5 miles from the boat launch at Folsom Lake.  So it got me thinking about whether a boat would be a decent way of generating cash.  

We must be neighbors. I live an hour north off 99. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by RedLion

[ERICOPOLY]

50 minutes ago, RedLion said:

We must be neighbors. I live an hour north off 99. 

 

Yuba City?

[RedLion]

10 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

Yuba City?

Yes for the last few years. Was in Sacramento before that. 

[ERICOPOLY]

11 hours ago, Castanza said:

LOL well at least you’re honest. No there is definitely some stuff I won’t mess with (mostly engine stuff). Vehicles have gotten really complicated and require a lot of special tools. Not worth the hassle anymore. My FIL still changes his oil…in his driveway…during the winter. Lol it’s what? $20 service fee at Jiffy Lube? 

 

Haha yeah I’ve seen some of those failed boat launch vids. Understandable

 

My wife was quoted $1,500 by the BMW dealership a month ago to change my stepson's BMW ignition coils and spark plugs.  This is the equivalent of changing light bulbs.  I ordered the Bosch parts for $190 and he did it in the garage himself last night in 3 hours.

 

And today I changed the oil on my Suburban in my driveway.  I don't even need a jack, there's enough room under there and it takes less time than driving to Jiffy Lube and back.  $44 total.

Edited September 9, 2022 by ERICOPOLY

[ERICOPOLY]

That's $40 for 6 quarts full-synthetic Castrol Edge 5W-30 and $4 for the FRAM filter.  

 

This is about $100 at the oil change shops and it takes no time at all.

 

EDIT:  And I could have saved $11 today by getting the oil from Walmart:  they have a 3 pack of 5-quart Mobil 1 full synthetic 5w-30 going for $73.28 which is about $24 per 5 quarts.

Edited September 9, 2022 by ERICOPOLY

[Eng12345]

23 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Agreed it's better than smaller towns which would have even less opportunity (but also lower cost of living). 

 

I live like royalty here. I own a 2,500 sq ft penthouse condo for what I paid in rent for a 700 SQ ft mediocre apartment in NY.

 

But that opportunity wouldn't have been available if not for starting out in NY and getting pedigree at Bridgewater and Pimco prior to moving to StL IMO. Plenty of people working for my same company making a lot less. I was just able to successfully arbitrage the wage/CoL discrepancy. If I had just started here I probably wouldn't have done that and would have started at significantly lower wages. 

 

There's cost to be considered outside of the cost of living is the only point in making.

I'm in STL as well... between my girlfriend and I last year we probably did 300k with overtime as an engineer/pharmacist. Looking at closer to 250k this year due to less OT in a new job. Still though, we have more than we want to spend. There's only so many vacations etc you want to do... I'm a bit of a homebody so the cheaper lifestyle of the midwest fits me well. Though I do day dream of retiring to the Caribbean 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Eng12345

[Blugolds11]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I have spent some time at our friends construction site a lake (no work, just fun) last weekend and couldn't help but look at the brand of engines from the boats cruising around:

 

I counted:

Mercury: 9

Honda: 1

 

That's bullish for $BC (don't own it though) , I guess. Back a few years ago, I recall seeing a lot of Yamaha's.

 

A lot of this has to do with geographical location, and size of the boats/motors…

 

In our area, predominately recreational/fishing I would give the overwhelming majority to Merc…other areas and larger boats, specifically down south its all Suzuki. Honda/Yamaha/Suzuki/ Merc all have pretty good reputations, many dealers make deals with motor manufacturers, or boat manufacturers make deals with inboard/outbord manufacturers to sell their brand exclusively so the customer buys a boat off the showroom with a motor already picked for them etc. 

 

 

[Blugolds11]

3 hours ago, ERICOPOLY said:

That's $40 for 6 quarts full-synthetic Castrol Edge 5W-30 and $4 for the FRAM filter.  

 

This is about $100 at the oil change shops and it takes no time at all.

 

EDIT:  And I could have saved $11 today by getting the oil from Walmart:  they have a 3 pack of 5-quart Mobil 1 full synthetic 5w-30 going for $73.28 which is about $24 per 5 quarts.

 

https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signature-5w-30-full-synthetic-motor-oil-1-quart%2c-12-pack.product.100691500.html

 

$25 for 6 quarts 5w-30 synthetic, Kirkland brand has been proven in tests/comparison to be on par with Mobile 1…its good stuff. 

 

I would strongly advise against using FRAM filters, google searches if you have questions. I tend to keep my vehicles for quite a while, if someone is trading up often it probably doesn’t matter then because you wont own it long enough for issues to show up. I run WIX filters, and they can be had for around $6 if you look online, I buy mine in packs of 5. Other good filers are Mobil and NAPA Gold. I probably still have some WIX 51042 for the GM 5.3 I took a 1999 Sierra to 240k miles before I passed the torch to another owner with no major issues. 

 

Another tip…

 

I run Fumoto valves on my truck/suv vehicles, I don’t off road with them, so I don’t worry about breaking any off, literally makes an oil change a 5 min, tool-less job. Throw the catch can under the burb, flip the switch, its draining, pull oil cap, swap filter, flip Fomoto to closed and start pouring fresh oil in, cant be simpler. 

 

https://www.fumotousa.com

 

Again if guys don’t plan on keeping vehicles past 100k miles probably doesn’t matter, but there IS a difference from a maintenance perspective running a quality synthetic oil for the long haul vs the bulk generic stuff from a Jiffy Lube etc and cheap filters. 

 

For $30-$35 ($25 oil and $5-$10 for filter) its the cheapest insurance you will ever buy and takes 5 min every couple months depending on how much you drive, I go 5k mi changes. Verified by family friends who are professional racers and own machine shops building engines for the racing community. 

[ERICOPOLY]

7 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signature-5w-30-full-synthetic-motor-oil-1-quart%2c-12-pack.product.100691500.html

 

$25 for 6 quarts 5w-30 synthetic, Kirkland brand has been proven in tests/comparison to be on par with Mobile 1…its good stuff. 

 

I would strongly advise against using FRAM filters, google searches if you have questions. I tend to keep my vehicles for quite a while, if someone is trading up often it probably doesn’t matter then because you wont own it long enough for issues to show up. I run WIX filters, and they can be had for around $6 if you look online, I buy mine in packs of 5. Other good filers are Mobil and NAPA Gold. I probably still have some WIX 51042 for the GM 5.3 I took a 1999 Sierra to 240k miles before I passed the torch to another owner with no major issues. 

 

Another tip…

 

I run Fumoto valves on my truck/suv vehicles, I don’t off road with them, so I don’t worry about breaking any off, literally makes an oil change a 5 min, tool-less job. Throw the catch can under the burb, flip the switch, its draining, pull oil cap, swap filter, flip Fomoto to closed and start pouring fresh oil in, cant be simpler. 

 

https://www.fumotousa.com

 

Again if guys don’t plan on keeping vehicles past 100k miles probably doesn’t matter, but there IS a difference from a maintenance perspective running a quality synthetic oil for the long haul vs the bulk generic stuff from a Jiffy Lube etc and cheap filters. 

 

For $30-$35 ($25 oil and $5-$10 for filter) its the cheapest insurance you will ever buy and takes 5 min every couple months depending on how much you drive, I go 5k mi changes. Verified by family friends who are professional racers and own machine shops building engines for the racing community. 

 

Thank you for the info!!  

[ERICOPOLY]

13 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

https://www.costco.com/kirkland-signature-5w-30-full-synthetic-motor-oil-1-quart%2c-12-pack.product.100691500.html

 

$25 for 6 quarts 5w-30 synthetic, Kirkland brand has been proven in tests/comparison to be on par with Mobile 1…its good stuff. 

 

I shopped at Costco today and they had this exact oil in the store except as a two-pack of 5 quart containers for $38.13.

 

That's $22.88 for 6 quarts, an additional savings of 8.5%.

[ERICOPOLY]

15 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

I run WIX filters, and they can be had for around $6 if you look online, I buy mine in packs of 5. Other good filers are Mobil and NAPA Gold. 

 

A pack of 12 NAPA Gold 7060 filters goes for $56.82 on Amazon.  After the 5% Amazon Visa discount the filters are only $4.50 a piece.  There is a claim that they are identical to WIX:  https://www.fleetfilter.com/comparison-wixLD-filter.html

 

So that's $27.38 for the entire job using the 6 quarts of Kirkland full synthetic oil.

 

I bet it's approximately $80 in savings by doing this oil change myself after sales taxes are factored in.  Comparable to about $120 in pre-tax income saved.

Edited September 9, 2022 by ERICOPOLY

[gfp]

If you take his advice and install the fumoto valves when you do your oil change you will be much happier every subsequent time.  I put a fumoto valve on the main oil drain and in my filter housing.  Most of you won't have a filter housing, just a screw in filter.  No drips!

Edited September 9, 2022 by gfp

[Spekulatius]

One thing that’s interesting is how fast inflation in China has slowed:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-09/china-s-inflation-slows-more-than-expected-with-covid-flare-ups