Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

This has hit the news here in Denmark,too, today. If it is so, I consider it mega ballsy and at the same time mega destcructive.

[backtothebeach]

31 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting results from Nordstream leak investigating from credible sources:

Seems like a pro Ukrainian group was involved.

 

Sure, just a pro Ukrainian group, nothing to do with governments ...

 

 

[cubsfan]

31 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

In every  war in the last 100+ years, nations went into it unprepared and vastly underestimated  what they needed to produce and move to keep the front lines supplied. I think every war is entered with the assumption (spoken out or not) that it only last a few weeks or at most month and that just isn’t the case any more. Wars tend to last longer nowadays and they are typically won by those who can outproduce and get their material to the front lines (logistics) in time.

 

I think it was a General Bradley who said that the war in Europe was won by Victory cargo  ships , Jeeps and Mack trucks. Germany had none of these, stuff was moved often by railroad and horses, believe it or not in WW2.

 

Yeah, I think that's right on. It doesn't seem like we are seeing the ramp up - just stockpiles dwindling  at this point. But I'd agree the capacity is there.

 

Now throw in the wild-card of Taiwan-- and it's a whole new ballgame. Hopefully, China's waiting to see how firm this Europe-USA alliance is against Russia..before they act.

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Sure, just a pro Ukrainian group, nothing to do with governments ...

 

 

 

 

Ukraine is at war.

 

Any/all enemy infrastructure(s) are all fair game, if this was indeed sanctioned implicitly or explicitly by the Ukrainian government. If it is just a terrorist attack by Ukrainian (but not sanctioned by Kiev) than it is what it is.

 

However, a NATO member explicit support is a red line.

 

My unsubstantial view was that (and has been) that Poland had a strong role play in this.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

Over 100k deaths and we are worried about some gas pipeline.  A pipeline to a country threatening nuclear annihilation on anyone who opposes it.  It's worth following for an intellectual exercise but really what does it matter who did it.  Russia, Ukraine, Poland,  USA, it's one of those but it doesn't matter.  We cant pretend we support Ukraine but pump up the economy of Russia. 

 

To me the most meaningful item is whether this represents some type of narrative shift against Ukraine.  Is the west starting to lose resolve and looking to cut.  1990s gulf war shiite uprising comes to mind. Hopefully not.   At any rate that's what some Russia sources are saying.  It's worth being aware of.

Edited March 8, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[whatstheofficerproblem]

If the Ukrainians had consulted me before blowing up the stream, I would've gone to Russia and bought equity in good businesses like SBER, YNDX etc for pennies on the dollar while telling the sellers that we would never open markets to Russian stocks again. An opportunity missed this one.

 

People already hated giving billions to Ukraine while things in house looked grim, they were just not outspoken about it for obvious reasons. This attack will only turn that fringe vocal minority into a sizeable voice that can't be ignored.

 

Soon Russian stocks will be traded again. If you're an investor in Russian securities and are looking to sell your stake please shoot me a message.

 

My offer prices:

SBER - 20 RUB/sh

YNDX - 200 RUB/sh

GAZP - 20 RUB/sh

POLY - 5 RUB/sh

Edited March 8, 2023 by whatstheofficerproblem

[Spekulatius]

I think it's too early to draw conclusion from the investigation. My guess is that if the Ukrainian pro government organization was indeed involved, it wasn't done with the Ukrainian authorization. The reason is simple - the truth on these type of things do come out and pot. down side too highvs the pot gain  (as we see now). The pipeline wasn't really all that important - it was idle and was supposed to remain so. I thought it was a russian psy operation with the intend to create fear in the west , but that does not seem that likely now. 

 

We do not even know if the leak is true, but it does come from sources that have been credible in the past (major German TV station).

 

If it turns out that the Ukrainian government was involved, then Ukraine will lose a lot of support in the Germany and likely the rest of Europe as well.

[CGJB]

12 hours ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Soon Russian stocks will be traded again.

I hope you're right. And I hope that's true for the ADRs as well.

[Spekulatius]

3 minutes ago, CGJB said:

I hope you're right. And I hope that's true for the ADRs as well.

I take the opposite side on this. I think it will take a long time until Russian stocks trade again in western markets.

[CGJB]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I take the opposite side on this. I think it will take a long time until Russian stocks trade again in western markets.

I agree with you! I hope it's not the case, but my hopes and what I think will happen are two different things.

Edited March 8, 2023 by CGJB
Needed to expand my response.

[Castanza]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/backing-ukraine-against-russia-with-colin-kahl-and/id682478916?i=1000601391447

 

Latest episode is worth a listen if you haven't. Covers the majority of the stuff you guys have been squabbling about the past few days. 

[no_free_lunch]

23 hours ago, CGJB said:

I agree with you! I hope it's not the case, but my hopes and what I think will happen are two different things.

Well you literally just said you hoped Russian stocks trade again. I mean that is part of free speech so I defend your right to say that. Just know that if you talk against Russia in Russia you are fucked. Probably literally. 

[no_free_lunch]

Can you give us the summary castanza?

[Spekulatius]

23 hours ago, CGJB said:

I agree with you! I hope it's not the case, but my hopes and what I think will happen are two different things.

The history of sanction and red flag enemies of the US would suggest that things take a long time to go back to "normal". Just look at Cuba and Iran? those are in the doghouse for decades (Cuba since the 50's, Iran since the late 70's). It doesn't matter who is president in the US either, these things transcendent party lines.

 

In the case of Cuba, the reason for the sanctions (affiliation with Soviet Union, nuclear missile installation) is gone since the mid 90's. Yet here we are...

 

I think Russia is in the doghouse with the US and the west for decades even after Putin is gone. The US is almost a #neverforget country as far as foreign policy enemies are concerned.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The history of sanction and red flag enemies of the US would suggest that things take a long time to go back to "normal". Just look at Cuba and Iran? those are in the doghouse for decades (Cuba since the 50's, Iran since the late 70's). It doesn't matter who is president in the US either, these things transcendent party lines.

 

In the case of Cuba, the reason for the sanctions (affiliation with Soviet Union, nuclear missile installation) is gone since the mid 90's. Yet here we are...

 

I think Russia is in the doghouse with the US and the west for decades even after Putin is gone. The US is almost a #neverforget country as far as foreign policy enemies are concerned.

well, we forgave Germany and Japan and China, so why not Russia?

[Xerxes]

Because we chose to totally obliterate Germany and Japan. The only reason they were rebuilt was because an economically strong post war Germany and Japan were a good hedge against communism.  
 

It was not out of kindest of heart. If there were no Soviet Union, there would still be troops garrisoning a broken Germany and Japan. 
 

In case of Iran, US has done everything to strangle the country for 40 years economically. Only hurting average people. That sin is above and beyond of the constant interference, directly helping Irak in the war, that cause a million death and injured. 
 

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

10 minutes ago, Dinar said:

well, we forgave Germany and Japan and China, so why not Russia?

The US forgave Germany and Japan after they were beaten into submission and totally destroyed. If we can beat Russia into submission, then we will forgive them.

 

I am not sure what you mean by forgiven in China's case. China was an ally in WW2.

 

@Xerxes said it first. LOL

Edited March 9, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The US forgave Germany and Japan after they were beaten into submission and totally destroyed. If we can beat Russia into submission, then we will forgive them.

 

I am not sure what you mean by forgiven in China's case. China was an ally in WW2.

 

@Xerxes said it first. LOL

Korean War - Chinese killed tens of thousands of Americans in Korea.  Chinese invaded Korea when it was clear that communists were going to be destroyed.  Vietnam by the way another example.  

[Castanza]

39 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Can you give us the summary castanza?

 

On the Go, but here are a few topics highlighted. 

 

- Russia has largely failed and will never hold Ukraine

- Russia is short on munitions and using most of what they make within a month. 

- Russia looks weak but can still make calculated pushes and capture territory.

- Both armies are very different animals than when the war started. Both have greatly benefited from conscription/mobilization of additional forces. 

- Ukraine unlikely to re-capture major cities or hot spot locations (likely to lose Bakhmut) 

- War in general is at a relative stalemate

- Ukraine wants more funding but US has 11B left in the tank. F16 don't make sense as 12 would eat that budget up. US production is bottlenecked and everything we give Ukraine is being taken away from current US missions. The "extra supply" is a myth. US debating future funding of resources based on our own risks as we deplete OUR supply. The benefit of a dozen F-16 to Ukraine would be negligible. 

- Some of the munitions very useful to Ukraine are not necessarily something we will continue to produce because they are not strategic to the US (speaker listed some shells and other munitions). US is Air dependent not Artillery. 

- Russia's nuclear declaration of use for Nuclear weapons is a much lower threshold than NATO nations. Putin is still irrational and the same people who said Russia wouldn't invade are the same ones saying Putin will never push that button. 

- Should the US supply cluster like munitions (cant remember specific name)? Maybe because they are already being used. 

- Ukraine will have to spend billions post war to de-mine the nation. It's going to be a massive problem that will hinder rebuilding. 

- Germany re-thinking the shipment of Leopard tanks as Ukraine may not be able to maintain them. 

 

[Xerxes]

9 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Korean War - Chinese killed tens of thousands of Americans in Korea.  Chinese invaded Korea when it was clear that communists were going to be destroyed.  Vietnam by the way another example.  

Agreed. Korean War should be called U.S-China war since that is what it was. Much like Ukraine War, is more of NATO-Russia war. 
 

Korean and Ukrainian are/were innocent bystander. Like always. 
 

Vietnam war, however, was Vietnam with the U.S.

 

China played a much smaller role, and Vietnam fell in the Soviet block and not the Red China block.  
 

All sins were forgiven however with Nixon and Kissinger. So fair point there. 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

57 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Korean War - Chinese killed tens of thousands of Americans in Korea.  Chinese invaded Korea when it was clear that communists were going to be destroyed.  Vietnam by the way another example.  

China is a good example of why we shouldn't forgive forget without regime change. Look at the contrast between Germany and Japan vs China.  All we have done is strengthened our enemy and yes we benefitted along the way but at what cost.  If it leads to a cold war both parties in the US will be doing some soul searching to make sure that NEVER happens again.

 

Castanza,  I can't really find much to disagree with.  The only point is around nuclear use. I feel they would have been used by now if it was truly on the table.  It just doesn't make sense, this is not a mortal threat to Russia.  Their nuclear use doctrine does require some legitimate threat to the country and a fight in Ukraine just doesn't hit that bar.  Also note that mainstream western agencies were correct in calling for the invasion. We like to downplay them because of Iraq but they were bang on here.  When they start sounding the nuclear alarm I will take it seriously. Until then imo, we can't be cowered, or we become slaves.  

Edited March 9, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Agreed. Korean War should be called U.S-China war since that is what it was. Much like Ukraine War, is more of NATO-Russia war. 
 

Korean and Ukrainian are/were innocent bystander. Like always. 
 

Vietnam war, however, was Vietnam with the U.S.

 

China played a much smaller role, and Vietnam fell in the Soviet block and not the Red China block.  
 

All sins were forgiven however with Nixon and Kissinger. So fair point there. 

I think the idea of the USA making good with China was that the bigger headache was Russia at this point and the enemy of my enemy may be my friend. Russia had a rift with China at that time and Nixon/Kissinger was trying to exploit.

 

Also, economically speaking, China has beaten itself into submission with Maoist policies, so wasn't really a threat beyond the nuclear weapons.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

^^ You said it better than me. 
 

it was a point of view that was very hard to explore during the Korean War, when the prevailing point of view in DC was that of giant Red block with Moscow at the centre. 
 

Kissinger’s genius was recognize the different shades of red and explore them. 
 

on a different note, reading a book on a topic few years ago, it came to my attention that the Presidential B.707 plane that carried Nixon to Beijing, first landed in Shanghai, there Chinese navigators join in, and help flew the Air Force One to Beijing. Or Peking. 

[John Hjorth]

39 minutes ago, Dinar said:

well, we forgave Germany and Japan and China, so why not Russia?

 

33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The US forgave Germany and Japan after they were beaten into submission and totally destroyed. If we can beat Russia into submission, then we will forgive them.

 

I am not sure what you mean by forgiven in China's case. China was an ally in WW2.

 

@Xerxes said it first. LOL

 

Marshall Plan .

 

You have to help your worst enemy to get on the feet again, when the clash is over. You may not love to do so, but for macro economists it's plain and pure, almost simple, ... logics and macroeconomics on the rim, - no feelings involved whatsoever. To me, no doubt USA here did the right thing after WWII.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I have interviewed my - now late - father, who passed away august last year at the age of 96 - about how he was perceiving his own whole life, talking with him many, many hours during the last decade or so, I would say tirelessly, trying to grasp and understand how he has perceived his living conditions back then - later in life with my mother - and how living conditions have evolved during the years.

 

He was post WWII an officer in the the Danish army, in a brigade controlling how things evolved post WWII in the German population, in a part of Germany, Hamburg and north bound, out of of Itzehoe, located NE of Hamburg.

 

Not one word about that was I during all those years with him with talks about his past able to get out of him about that part of his life. When asked about it, he simpy turned his face in another direction than me at every occurrence.fter WWII.

 

Today, I think of it as PTSD of his, to which I never got any help.

 

- - - - o 0 o - - -

 

We have to love our former worst enemy, when the dust settles, to get along.

[james22]

On 2/18/2023 at 9:32 PM, Dinar said:

Russia has been a paper tiger for decades.

 

 

Even after being exposed, Poland still considers Russia a threat.

 

To start with, it has placed orders for 1,000 K2 main battle tanks from South Korea, and 250 brand new M1A2 SEPv3 Abram tanks from the US. This will turn Poland into the owner of Europe’s biggest tank force, dwarfing the UK’s fleet of 227.

Its artillery will be bolstered by the arrival of 600 K9s, 18 HIMARS launchers with 9,000 rockets, and 288 K239 Chunmoo MRL systems from South Korea.

Over 1,000 Polish-made Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles will carry Polish troops into battle, while air cover will come from 96 AH-64E Apache helicopters bought from the US, and 48 FA-50 combat aircraft now on order from South Korea.

“We are changing our equipment very, very quickly,” said Captain Adamiak. “It really is revolution, not evolution.”

All of this will be underscored by plans to double the size of the Polish Army to 300,000, which would turn Poland into Europe’s biggest military power, in terms of manpower, west of Ukraine.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/11/revolution-polish-army-builds-europes-largest-land-force/