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Russia-Ukrainian War - End Game?

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On 3/9/2023 at 2:14 PM, no_free_lunch said:

Well you literally just said you hoped Russian stocks trade again. I mean that is part of free speech so I defend your right to say that. Just know that if you talk against Russia in Russia you are fucked. Probably literally. 


Yes, I hope Russian stocks trade again. Just like I hope Russia is successful with its Special Military Operation.



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US drone: Russian jet forces down MQ-9 Reaper over Black Sea | CNN Politics


The Reaper drone and two Russian Su-27 aircraft were flying over international waters over the Black Sea on Tuesday when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel on the unmanned drone several times, a statement from US European Command said.


The aircraft then hit the propeller of the drone, prompting US forces to bring the MQ-9 drone down in international waters. Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder added Tuesday that the Russian aircraft flew “in the vicinity” of the drone for 30 to 40 minutes before colliding just after 7 a.m. Central European Time.


“Our MQ-9 aircraft was conducting routine operations in international airspace when it was intercepted and hit by a Russian aircraft, resulting in a crash and complete loss of the MQ-9,” Air Force Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa, said in the statement. “In fact, this unsafe and unprofessional act by the Russians nearly caused both aircraft to crash.”

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@james22 - thanks for posting these great slides. Good for Tilson doing some real good.


It's great to hear about the spirit of the Ukrainians. It will be interesting to see how "victory"

is defined:


- Russians expelled from Eastern Ukraine?

- Expelled from Crimea?

- Current advanced just stopped cold. But nothing left but rubble anyway. So a DMZ?



Edited by cubsfan
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Michael Kofman has been one of my go-to’s when wanting to get an update. He just returned from a trip to Ukraine to get first hand information. He expects a Ukraine offensive in the coming months (after Ukraine is re-armed by the West). He expects something decisive to happen. He is normally pretty guarded so that surprised me. 


Edited by Viking
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Interesting stuff on Tilson. I was not aware that his parents were both teachers. The investing legend had two teacher parents, went to Harvard, and then immediately launched a hedge fund right out of school. Now sells newsletters. Rags to riches story if I’ve ever heard one.

Edited by Gregmal
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30 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

Video showing the Russian jet spraying fuel on the drone and colliding with it.



is this a deleted scene from Top Gun 2?

We have been betrayed !! It seems that Paramount has been keeping a hidden Extended Edition version of Top Gun (ala Peter Jackson LOTR) to double-dip our pockets 

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Reuters [March 17 2023] : ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Putin over war crimes in Ukraine .


The article mentions :


Kremlin says arrest warants 'outrageous und unacceptable'

Putin is third serving head of state to get ICC arrest warrant


Yes, it places the man in a certain leage, almost of his own. However not like getting an Oscar for best permance or Nobels Prize for Peace.


Mr. Browder must be overjoyed.

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On 3/18/2023 at 4:15 AM, John Hjorth said:




This tweet is for you.


Looks like the internet community have it beyond doubt that it was NOT from a Top Gun deleted scene, with Tom Cruise flying a stolen Su-27. Now if the same internet community can put their effort and intellect to solve an actual mystery (Nord Stream pipelines) that would be great. 

This “T1000 drone Terminator vs. Su-27 Flanker” episode I think would be classified under cat-and-mouse game that always been there but now running with more threshold for risk. Perhaps to “normalize” of military engagements/contacts between the two nuclear powers. The more you blur the line the more you can leverage your hybrid warfare.

I think there will simply be more of these pushes by the Kremlin. But nothing consequential will come of it. That said listening to news reporter asking Pentagon officials in press conference if the drone incident was an act of war was hilarious. These silly reporters seem to forget that NATO led by U.S. is actually at war with Russia. However it is a war were both sides have decided to fight within a certain framework of containment. 



Edited by Xerxes
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On 5/18/2022 at 9:05 PM, shhughes1116 said:

A few weeks ago, I said to expect the Fourth Battle of Krakiv, which would blow open the Russian flank in the Donbas and lead to an encirclement of Russian troops.  That is now happening in Izyum - the Ukrainians are starting to pinch that salient, while at the same time Ukraine troops are threatening Vovchansk.  This will suck Russian troops from other areas to protect the railroad lines between Belgorod and Donbas.   And they are being sucked into their rear areas to defend against partisans, especially in the South.  

With the growing manpower advantage and with an unending stream of weapons from the West, I suspect we are going to see Ukraine sever the land-bridge to Crimea this Summer by attacking towards Melitpol.  This would expose the flank of Russian troops in Kherson and likely cause them to fall back into Crimea, rather than hold Kherson and die like the Ukrainian soldiers in Mauriopol.  That opens up numerous possibles for Ukraine to finish the war on their terms. 

Plenty more bleeding and death to come, sadly.  But I think we are going to see the Russian army routed in the field.  


For those of you that still follow this war closely, there have been some interesting actions recently, which lead me to believe the Ukrainian counter-offensive is coming soon, maybe late Spring.    

1. A handful of Russian mil-bloggers have been reporting Ukrainian attacks near Polohy.  From what is described, the Ukrainians are conducting reconnaissance in force.    

2. The most recent aid package from the United States contained fuel trucks designed to support heavy tanks and mechanized infantry in the field.

3.  Recent aid packages have included a lot of bridging and engineering equipment.    

4. Over the past few months, it looks like the Ukrainians have been reinforcing Bahkmut with Territorial Defense Forces and existing Brigrades (i.e. 80th, 92nd, 93rd).  Clearly things are tough in Bahkmut, but it doesn't look like they've been sending new units that have been recently trained by the West.  And I don't see any of the new vehicles they've been getting from the West (i.e. AMX-RC10s, Leopard 2s, Marder IFVs, Bradley IFVs). 

5.  Ukraine is forming 28,000 volunteers into Assault Brigades - that's about 10 brigades.   


By my estimation, Ukraine has another 5-6 undeployed brigades and support units trained by the West that have not been deployed yet.  Add in the Assault Brigades and you get a force of 15-16 Brigades.  The Challenger II and Leopard II tanks that they get this Spring, along with the Strykers, Bradleys, and Marders, will enable Ukraine to create from these brigades two armored brigades and a handful of mechanized brigades.  This is a pretty formidable force, especially with the Leopard IIs and Challenger IIs in the van. 


I continue to think the main thrust happens through Polohy, with subsequent thrusts to Berdyansk and Melitpol.  I think there will be a Dnipro River crossing - maybe a feint -  to keep Russian forces fixed along the river.  If the Russians remain fixed to the river, I'll bet we see a thunder run by the ex-French AMX-RC10s towards the Crimean Isthmus to prevent Russian forces from retreating into Crimea, which might cause a rout amongst the Russian forces that are currently along the Dnipro River.    


I think Ukraine gets one chance at a counter-offensive.  If this fails, I think they are pushed by the West to sue for peace.      





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