Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

Jeff Curie talks also about the Russian sea-bound crude embargo that went up in Dec as well as the one refined products that went up in Feb. 

 

Unrelated to Russia, Jeff has been talking the same line for the past year that energy prices today have the same setup they had in 2006-07 during the Fed hiking cycle (that pushed USD all time high) which in turn kept oil prices in check (notwithstanding its bullish setup) but when the rate plateau and ultimately dropped in 2007-08 or so it uncorked one the biggest rally in crude. 
 

The difference of course is that 2008 we ended up with a banking crisis. If 2023 will indeed have a soft landing (as oppose to hard) the rally may just sustain.
 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

@Spekulatius thanks for that - the difficulty re-starting oil fields is the big deterrent I wasn't aware of.........it just struck me that Russia remains a global superpower in two key respects only  - Energy & its Nuclear arsenal.........if things get existential for the regime......leaning into energy first before you literally go nuclear is the playbook.

 

@Xerxes will have a listen, thanks

Edited February 12, 2023 by changegonnacome

[no_free_lunch]

I just wonder change, if any of this is really existential for the regime.  They dont even CLAIM it to be as such. The RU argument is more, a failure here could ultimately lead to an existential risk.  Rhyming a bit with US position on Korea back in the 50s. 

 

On your question around sentiment in Russia,  obviously I don't know but they seem to have a hard time recruiting. Conscription,  prisoner soldiers, emigration, these aren't things you see when there is patriotic support. I think the people supporting it don't have to actually fight. 

Edited February 12, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[james22]

Perhaps the scariest takeaway from the Ukraine War is that it’s just beginning.

 

https://zeihan.com/the-ukraine-war-just-getting-started/

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

I just wonder change, if any of this is really existential for the regime.  They dont even CLAIM it to be as such. The RU argument is more, a failure here could ultimately lead to an existential risk.  Rhyming a bit with US position on Korea back in the 50s. 

 

Yeah agree on the existential piece.....I'm just considering various levers they could pull.........pushing harder on the energy piece as a strategic tool to try to tip 'the west' back into an inflationary nightmare and/or recession......such that political support waivers is an interesting card Putin has left to play.......Europe got away with a warm winter/LNG purchases worked & US got to draw down SPR.......attention now turns to winter late-2023/24......and what tricks Vlad has up his sleeves & what the climate might serve up next winter

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yeah agree on the existential piece.....I'm just considering various levers they could pull.........pushing harder on the energy piece as a strategic tool to try to tip 'the west' back into an inflationary nightmare and/or recession......such that political support waivers is an interesting card Putin has left to play.......Europe got away with a warm winter/LNG purchases worked & US got to draw down SPR.......attention now turns to winter late-2023/24......and what tricks Vlad has up his sleeves & what the climate might serve up next winter

What makes you think that there is political support for Ukraine in France, Italy, UK, US, et all?  Have the people been polled?  Just because Biden was on Ukraine's payroll does not meant US public supports the war and the 50-100bn that was given to Ukraine.  Do you really think that a typical family in the US would willingly give up a $1000 for Ukraine, let alone several thousand more that Ukraine is asking for?  Similarly, I doubt that the public in Europe west of Poland/Czech Republic actually supports Ukraine despite what those leaders say/do.  

Does the west actually have the ability to supply ammunition and the weapons that Ukraine needs/requests?  When the entire Western Europe has 1000 battle ready tanks... When Ukraine fires more shells in a month than the US produces in a year?  

 

Yes, the war clearly is very unpopular in Russia, but will that stop Putin & co?   

 

In the long run, Russia has the advantage, and that's why once its nose was bloodied, the smart thing was to try to get a peace agreement or an armistice, instead we hear warmongers calling for Crimea returned to Kiev.   The smart player knows when to hold and when to fold.  

 

I disagree that the war or Ukraine are existential to Russia.  I do not agree with Zeihan's point of view.      Where are the new Panzer divisions going to come from?  Germany?  France?  Give me a break!   And the threat is far likelier to come from the East - China or South - Iran/Pakistan/ than from Germany or Poland.

Edited February 12, 2023 by Dinar

[Xerxes]

@changegonnacome

 

You are welcome. always a pleasure. 
 

On Bolton, he maybe a hawk. But he knows what he is talking, notwithstanding being clever in some of his answers. 
 

ref: when asked about US and how it maintains its sphere of influence militarily. He gave the Canada example (that it is Canada telling us what to do) as oppose to his own mess in Iraq. (He was U.S. Ambassador in U.N. then and was banging the war drums pretty hard). 
 

He is hawk with an agenda but knows his stuff. I can respect that. 

[lnofeisone]

13 hours ago, Xerxes said:

He is hawk with an agenda but knows his stuff. I can respect that. 

This is 100% spot on. When he was at State, Bolton had no problems arguing with anyone but he absolutely knows his stuff. Probably didn't help that he was so argumentative all the time.

[Spekulatius]

On 2/10/2023 at 10:22 PM, Xerxes said:

Awesome interview with John Bolton. The “Hawk” nails it. It is part of the PBS Frontline documentary called “Putin and the Presidents” which I think non-Americans cannot watch without VPN. I couldn’t even find it. 
 

In any case you can watch the interviews. 

 

  

This documentary is pretty good, not just the part with Bolton.

[Spekulatius]

Looks like another escalation from Putin - meddling in Moldova potentially. Of course Putin will deny this - just like he denied the “Green men” in Crimea 2014 were Russian mercenaries :

 

[Spekulatius]

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

 

 

[formthirteen]

25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

 

Weird, central planning, command economy, and communist economy does not work in practice? It's like capitalism actually works. Very weird, someone better tell the Russians (and Chinese, and Europeans, and some senators).

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

European gas futures now below 50€. That’s lower than at the start of the invasion. Putin’s NG gamble has failed. Putins crude gamble also is failing, because he needs to sell at prices far below Brent, despite all his ramblings. Over time, he is going to bleed Russia white economically and literally. I think he is going to lose 200k soldiers this year.

 

 

 

Unbelievable - the EU got lucky for sure with the winter........but I'll give credit where its also due......the EU as a political economy has shown a level of solidarity, unity & coordination on the energy crisis that is impressive.....people have poo poo'd the lack of a Federal Europe......but on this matter, COVID and after much torture the post-GFC period......the EU political institutions have turned out to be way more robust than I would have imagined. Its impressive.

[changegonnacome]

 

A little bit through this - but good review of where we are.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Weird, central planning, command economy, and communist economy does not work in practice? It's like capitalism actually works. Very weird, someone better tell the Russians (and Chinese, and Europeans, and some senators).

I think there was a bit of Karma too. 

[james22]

On 1/29/2023 at 7:56 PM, Castanza said:

The West will drag this out as long as possible.

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

so basically U.S. is dollar cost averaging its non-value added adventures in the Middle East and buying the dip on this one, which also happens to have a better ROI

[SharperDingaan]

Amazing how Russian officials have a penchant for 'accidents' 

Obviously it isn't going well,  and the noose is tightening.

 

Russian defence official dies after falling from St. Petersburg tower window.

https://globalnews.ca/news/9494380/russian-defence-official-dies-fall-st-petersburg-marina-yankina/

 

SD

Edited February 18, 2023 by SharperDingaan

[cubsfan]

7 hours ago, james22 said:

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

 

Yup - with a Russia defense budget of $80B or so - and no US lives at stake, life gets real painful for Putin. He clearly fucked this one up. Especially, if the European alliance sticks together.

[cubsfan]

Once Putin is finished emptying out Russian prisons, then what?

 

 

 

 

[Dinar]

10 hours ago, james22 said:

 

US defense budget $715B.

Probably $100-150B is devoted to the Russian threat.

At a one-time cost of only $40B so far (another $38B planned 2023) aid to Ukraine is fantastically inexpensive to significantly degrade that threat for a meaningful time.

(The real cost is far less than $40B, most systems provided being older generations pulled from storage.)

For perspective, the US spent $115B/year for 20 years ($2.3T total) in Afghanistan (all for naught).

All without putting American lives at risk, there's no reason for the US to end this.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bj0YrYVUimY

Why would we devote anything to the Russian threat?   They cannot defeat a country with 1/3 of the population and may be 1/5 the wealth, how could Russia be a threat to the US?

[james22]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Why would we devote anything to the Russian threat?   They cannot defeat a country with 1/3 of the population and may be 1/5 the wealth, how could Russia be a threat to the US?

 

Seriously?

[Dinar]

30 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Seriously?

Yes, Russia has been a paper tiger for decades.  By the way, how did you get your estimate of Pentagon spending $100-150bn per annum on the Russian threat?  

 

I would frankly worry more about China, North Korea, and Islamic terrorists than Putin and his crew of incompetent buffoons

Edited February 19, 2023 by Dinar

[Dinar]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousands-of-ukrainians-in-u-s-risk-losing-legal-status-in-april-d6bceaf4?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Incredible.  Instead of welcoming these educated, hard working people who greatly suffered, our government is keeping them in limbo, and potentially deporting them to their devastated country.  Probably the only time in my life that I wished Carter was President.  Although he did deregulate the airlines and railroads, so he certainly helped the country in that regard.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Nothing should surprise you with the current administration: cross the southern border as a criminal - and will give you a plane ticket and resettlement anywhere you like. But if you are a bonafide political refugee from Europe - forget it.