Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Russia desperately needs a break in the war. To rest its troops. And restock its supply lines. And figure out a new strategy. Sounds like putin is in process of paying/enlisting 40,000 Syrians to join the fight on Russia’s behalf… he needs time to put these sorts of measures in place. 

 

whilst it is true that the “special operations” has not been going well for Kremlin, the reports of Syrians and Chechens are (I think) more to inflame anxiety and racial tension, than a strategic pause for its conscript army. 

 

Persians and Romans always used armies pooled from “fringe provinces” from the other side of their empires to fight their wars and supplement their regular forces.  
 

the one thing Russian army does well is to obliterate cities into submission with its artillery. There are not going to be doing any street fighting. Grozny is mentioned a lot on reports as an example. And since West took its gloves off on its economic war, so will Moscow. Nothing to loose unless Zelensky comes to a point. 
 

[Spekulatius]

Modern wars have no winners any more. 200 years ago a nation could win a war (barely). The last war that was a clear win  Franco Prussian war in 1870. The Prussians won this, because it was swift victory. Every war after that has two losers , the one who loses more and the other one who loses less. In this war Ukraine will lose more (devastation, depopulation) and Russia will lose less, relatively speaking, but still will be a loser as well.

 

Let see how this peace deal will look like, if we get one.  I think Putin will take a lot of damage. Europe is turning away from Russian NG, that's fore sure - I think they learned that lesson and the machinery to get there is already in motion. The other sanctions we will see. The Ukrainians will hate the Russians for a long time and who knows maybe they will move closer to Europe some day. They have negotiated about an entry in the EU while all this mayhem happened.

[Xerxes]

1991 Gulf War was a clear win with clear objectives. 
 

 

it did however created a thirsty and vengeful cabal of men bended on feeding their fantasy and going back to finish the job in “special operation to de-ba’athify Mesopotamia” in 2003

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

Can anyone offer alternatives that Ukraine might actually go for? I personally dont think they should give an inch..but thats not reality and I also dont want to see the rock pile that used to be Ukraine. 

 

I'm afraid Ukraine has learned four very hard lessons:

 

(1) Geography is destiny....you need to be a pragmatic when your a relatively small country book ended by two large powerful neighbors...having good relations with both is important & in fact a necessity

(2) Be wary of the West with its promises of support for democracy & freedom in your country....they are always found wanting when the rubber hits the road & bullets start flying (unless your country is strategic to them)

(3) Ukraine is strategically important for Russia (they've proved this) & not strategically important for the EU/NATO/USA (they've proved this)

(4) International law sounds good until you really need....for the permanent members of the UN security council i.e. the Great powers......it effectively doesn't exist, only norms do...

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

Amazing …. presidents/PM of Poland, Slovenia and Czech republic are heading to Kiev, a city under siege, to meet the Legend himself. 

[Xerxes]

The pledge was signed with then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who had the backing of Russia, in December 2013 in Beijing.

It contained the following joint statement:

 

"China pledges unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear Ukraine, and under the conditions of Ukraine suffering an invasion using nuclear weapons or suffering the threat of such kind of invasion, to provide Ukraine with corresponding security guarantees."

[Spekulatius]

The most important lesson is to never give up nuclear weapons once you got them.

[changegonnacome]

11 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The most important lesson is to never give up nuclear weapons once you got them.

 

1000000% agree @Spekulatius

 

The converse is true.........and Iran and North Korea et al are watching this closely...........building a nuclear capability IS the most important thing any tin pot dictator does on a daily basis with the resources of his country......

Edited March 15, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Xerxes]

For clarity, while the irony rings through, I would say that Ukraine could not have really made use of the nuclear arsenal. They were just based there as part of the Soviet arsenal while the nuclear code was controlled by Moscow. The same way the space program launching pads happened to be based on what is today called Kazakhstan. 
 

Had Ukraine refused to give up the nuclear arsenal back in the 90s, it is possible that Yeltsin with explicit U.S. backing would have gone in to secure them militarily, even though it might seem like a hard picture to imagine given what we today. Those were different times ….

Edited March 15, 2022 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

Xerxes is right. Russia can do tremendous damage given it has near air superiority and a large advantage in heavy equipment.  I don't get the impression this is close to over.

 

Here are some bear case arguments I see.

 

Hungary is now talking about a bordering Ukrainian province joining Hungary. They claim a large ethnic Hungarian population.  Hungary has avoided sending arms and perhaps it relates to their positioning here.

 

Moldova also has a breakaway pro Russian province.  What will happen when if Russia gets close enough.

 

China... Already discussed but the biggest wildcard.  I am cautiously optimistic that China will maneuver to its advantage and to me that means economics over arm shipments.  The deals with Saudi,  Russian oil purchases, etc. 

 

Scary times.

[Spekulatius]

@no_free_lunch I don’t think Russia actually has air superiority. That‘s the surprising part. The Ukraine Air Force is still flying and contesting the air. If the Russian had air superiority, the Ukrainians could not use the relatively low tech Turkish drones and so effectively to destroy Russian armor and armored vehicles.

 

Air superiority is necessary condition to conduct a Blitzkrieg and that was the Russian plan and it never worked. There simply is no Blitzkrieg. What the Russian now are doing is more like a slow grind with a siege like tactic. They are shooting at cities with either rockets or motorized artillery mortars. It is almost medieval warfare and It takes along time. The Russian Air Force isn’t showing all that much presence, perhaps for fear of getting shot down by stingers and such.

 

Imaging the US we’re doing it and you would see swarms of air planes all over the place dropping precision guided ordonance. None of this is happening here. The Russian Air Force is a failure.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Thats the statement by the EU delegation in Kiev.

 

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Thats the statement by the EU delegation in Kiev.

 

 

Doing everything to help, short of helping

[Xerxes]

 

Agreed about lack of Russian air superiorty. There is however, one school of thought out there that thinks that within the Kremlin, there must have been a calculus of a possibility of a what-if scenario where NATO would have intervined, thereby they kept their cream of the Air Force out of sight. I dont disagree with that view. That possibility must have been wargamed. But it is also clear that in the inital phase of the war, they failed to take out Ukrainian air defenses.

 

The curious case of Russia’s missing air force | The Economist

 

On the lack of coordination between its forces. Russian army was and always been an artillery-based army. Even in the second world war, while historian often give credit the sacrifices made by the Soviet Union (and rightly so), the one often overlooked point is that the Luftwaffe was tied down protecting the Reich against the Anglo-American heavy bombers and slowly decimated by them. How well would have the Soviet Union overall against the full wrath of the Reich with the full support of its Luftwaffe. What other major conflict did Russia fought since the end of world war, except for proxy wars. My own personal belief (clearly wrong now) was that Russia had really used the war in Georgia in 2008 as a test bed to modernize its doctrine and bring it up to date to something akin to a Western coordinated fighting machine.  

 

[Spekulatius]

Of course the (gutsy, imo) visit of the Polish, Slovakian and Czech minister is just a gesture, but those can be important too. I think the next milestone is Zelenskyy's address to congress today, which might put pressure on Biden to do more. I also think his visit to Europe, which is likely a consensus building mission, is another sign that something is brewing, hopefully around a brokered cease fire and peace talk.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Spekulatius

[SharperDingaan]

14 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Of course the (gutsy, imo) visit of the Polish, Slovakian and Czech minister is just a gesture, but those can be important too. I think the next milestone is Zelenskyy's address to congress today, which might put pressure on Biden to do more. I also think his visit to Europe, which is likely a consensus building mission, is another sign that something is brewing, hopefully around a brokered cease fire and peace talk.

 

It would appear there is going to be a cease-fire, and that the Ukraine is going to agree to never join NATO. I would also suggest that oil sanctions are going to remain on Russia for some time, and that China will continue to extract the USD 25-30/bbl discount it is taking on each barrel of Russian crude.

 

SD  

[changegonnacome]

https://citywire.com/funds-insider/news/wednesday-papers-ukraine-can-t-join-nato-says-zelensky/a2382549

 

"Zelensky said yesterday that Ukraine had to accept that the “door of Nato” had closed."

 

"Russia has continued to pressure Ukraine to formally renounce its intention to join Nato and formally recognise the separatist provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea."

 

There's your deal right there - and Zelensky should bite their hand off and he will. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Gregmal]

No shit, eh? So predicating things on the NA narrative didnt quite pan out? Something similar just occurred with the CCP. We good, them bad, might be useful cocktail lounge talk, but it doesnt generate alpha. 

[changegonnacome]

I know folks want to believe that Putin/Russia having got all they want......have still somehow "lost"........but let's be clear Russia has/will achieve their strategic objects (NATO expansion off the table / Separatist regions annexed).

 

The only argument left is that the price Putin had to pay was way higher than he expected........but what is the cost of anything versus an existential threat like NATO coming to your doorstep threatening your very existence & security.........

[Dinar]

4 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

I know folks want to believe that Putin/Russia having got all they want......have still somehow "lost"........but let's be clear Russia has/will achieve their strategic objects (NATO expansion off the table / Separatist regions annexed).

 

The only argument left is that the price Putin had to pay was way higher than he expected........but what is the cost of anything versus an existential threat like NATO coming to your doorstep threatening your very existence & security.........

You may be confusing reality and perception.  Perhaps President Putin thought that Ukraine joining NATO was an existential threat, but NATO neither is nor was ever an existential threat to Russia or the USSR before that.  After all, had the west not exported grain to the former USSR, the country would have starved.  

[Blugolds11]

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

I know folks want to believe that Putin/Russia having got all they want......have still somehow "lost"........but let's be clear Russia has/will achieve their strategic objects (NATO expansion off the table / Separatist regions annexed).

 

The only argument left is that the price Putin had to pay was way higher than he expected........but what is the cost of anything versus an existential threat like NATO coming to your doorstep threatening your very existence & security.........

 

I think Ukraine NATO is a "threat"...is it really real? If Russia didnt have nukes that would be one thing..but with nukes and a leader that isnt afraid to threaten using them...can you honestly envision a time where NATO would challenge them in armed conflict? I cant unless it was WW3 and then it doesnt really matter anyway. 

 

I know he says NATO expansion...and obviously that is probably a point of pride, but seems like the real thing he wanted was the land bridge/separatist regions...is Ukraine really that much of a buffer between Russia and Poland et al? I know it would be uncomfortable probably...just like nukes in Cuba..but when we are talking about 5k nukes capable of traveling the globe, does it really matter if they are on your doorstep or it takes 30 min to get to the US? I guess I just feel that if it gets to that point...whats the difference. 

 

What happens when the Nordic countries (who are now terrified) decide that they want to join NATO? Ukraine 2.0?  What happens when Finland wants in next? 

 

I guess its FAAFO

[changegonnacome]

9 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You may be confusing reality and perception.

 

I disagree but does it matter? - if Putin believes it to be so, then it is and the world needs to optimize for his/Russia's perception

 

I'm not sure what country your from - but do a thought experiment.......North Korea builds ties with your neighboring country.....those ties result in North Korea being allowed to construct a missles silo 15 miles from your countries borders and within 15 minute striking distance of your countries largest city.......North Korea & partner says they are not a threat to you and have no expansionary aspirations and your country would be crazy to think that would be possible............but tell me how would you and your family & your countries leadership FEEL about that???

Edited March 16, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

Regardless of war and dire circumstances, dress code violations are not tolerated:

 

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

That’s baller.

 

signed,

guy who went to an AGM in sweatpants and new balance shoes once

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Regardless of war and dire circumstances, dress code violations are not tolerated:

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1504082706598146058?s=20&t=W0dR3NF3SbHdBP8V2dFqhg

 

 

 

Wow.