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Today's 52-week lows (those of interest on any given day)


CafeB

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On 12/17/2021 at 10:40 PM, stockman500 said:

So if a company makes a 52 week low, generally the idea is to stay away from the stock until a base appears to have formed because it will probably go lower because its bottom, last remaining, yearly support has been broken?

 

If there was any technique to predicting short term stock price moves with even 52% accuracy, it's adherents would have returns far in excess of Buffett, and be much richer than him. But somehow I've never seen a technical analysis billionaire.

 

ARKK is $65.54 as I write this. A year ago it closed at $146.67.

 

Good thing it's a diversified ETF.

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Based on AH quotes of ~ $146, PYPL will be at a 52 week low tomorrow. Pretty good company, but I can see this one going back all the way to pre- COVID prices of $110-120 when the bear get growling a bit longer. Forward guidance of ~6% for Q1. (14% wo EBay) is not going to get growth investor exited.

 

75352BB4-E775-4A30-B27D-7A78FC0BA186.jpeg

Edited by Spekulatius
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1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Based on AH quotes of ~ $146, PYPL will be at a 52 week low tomorrow. Pretty good company, but I can see this one going back all the way to pre- COVID prices of $110-120 when the bear get growling a bit longer. Forward guidance of ~6% for Q1. (14% wo EBay) is not going to get growth investor exited.

 

75352BB4-E775-4A30-B27D-7A78FC0BA186.jpeg

 

You can clone Kerrisdale, who's lazy VIC pitch just went full public. If you assume a ridiculous multiple on 23 estimates you can get 25% upside from $185 LOL. Yea, thats hedge fund investing these days. 2/20 baby!

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14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

 

You can clone Kerrisdale, who's lazy VIC pitch just went full public. If you assume a ridiculous multiple on 23 estimates you can get 25% upside from $185 LOL. Yea, thats hedge fund investing these days. 2/20 baby!

One little problem I see with this pitch is that they have 2022 earnings estimates at ~$6.7 and PYPL just forecasted $4.6-4.75. Crystal ball must be broken, pls fix.

 

Overall it is interesting that this COVID-19 beneficiary has underperformed the broad market through the COVID-19 cycle.  So much about #neversell. Ouch!

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What’s more is Sahm is actually one of the better ones. There’s so much malaise and complacency with folks and the bar for investments just seems lower than I can ever recall. We ve come around to the baseline being “if they hit numbers and you give it a 35x”…..

 

just another data point and red flag to take notice of 

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11 hours ago, Gregmal said:

What’s more is Sahm is actually one of the better ones. There’s so much malaise and complacency with folks and the bar for investments just seems lower than I can ever recall. We ve come around to the baseline being “if they hit numbers and you give it a 35x”…..

 

just another data point and red flag to take notice of 

Yes, some pitches now feel like - we think this X will happen and the growth apes will bid this up to 30x revenues and there you have your 50% return!  This has afflicted VIC now as well. Lately this has not been working that well.

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2/4/22:

 

ENR - Energizer -- earnings Monday, 2/7

 

FARM - Farmer Bros. -- national coffee roaster, wholesaler and distributor of coffee, tea and culinary products -- "Our second fiscal quarter marked the sixth quarter of sequential improvement in our DSD sales, and we ended the quarter with average weekly DSD sales down 17% compared to pre-COVID levels, representing improvement from down 25% in the prior period and down 40% from one year ago."

 

FTV - Fortive

 

GFF - Griffon -- activist investor presentation: www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/voss-capital-issues-detailed-investor-presentation-on-griffon-corp-301465833.html

 

LII - Lennox -- TT/Trane also down after earnings, ~10% above its low -- CARR/Carrier earnings Tuesday, 2/8

 

MLR - Miller Industries -- towing and recovery equipment

 

MNRO - Monro (formerly Monro Muffler Brake)

 

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On 2/10/2022 at 4:56 PM, CafeB said:

2/10/22:

 

BKI - Black Knight

 

KAR - KAR Auction Services

 

PTVE - Pactiv Evergreen -- foodservice and food & beverage merchandising packaging -- "broken IPO" (IPO September 2020 at 14)

Looked at PTVE and it's really a POS business or management team. this was supposed to be a reopening play, but somehow got wrecked by inflation and lack of execution.

 

I think prior to going public again, the business has shrunk for years. It was a VIC recommendation at ~$18.5

 

https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/PACTIV_EVERGREEN_INC/0301387172

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  • 2 weeks later...

2/23/22:

 

CSGP -- “2021 was our first full year in the residential property space ... With an addressable market almost three times the size of our existing business, we believe that the residential property opportunity has the potential to add billions in revenue to CoStar Group over the medium to long term. In order to take advantage of this significant growth opportunity, we plan to increase the level of investment in residential products, content, sales and marketing in 2022.”

 

ROST, TJX

 

 

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1 minute ago, CafeB said:

2/23/22:

 

CSGP -- “2021 was our first full year in the residential property space ... With an addressable market almost three times the size of our existing business, we believe that the residential property opportunity has the potential to add billions in revenue to CoStar Group over the medium to long term. In order to take advantage of this significant growth opportunity, we plan to increase the level of investment in residential products, content, sales and marketing in 2022.”

 

ROST, TJX

 

 

I actually bought some ROST today. Always liked the business and price is fair. We might all need to buy our clothing there if this market continues.

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21 hours ago, bizaro86 said:

long term ROST holder (and adding below $90). I think management is quite a bit better than TJX, and I expect better growth

 

Interesting. Thanks.

 

Any opinion on BURL? From its investor presentation, on its potential: "remains the smallest, least productive, and least profitable of the major off-price retail chains". Thanks again

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On 2/24/2022 at 6:51 PM, CafeB said:

BURL? From its investor presentation, on its potential: "remains the smallest, least productive, and least profitable of the major off-price retail chains".

 

3/3/22:

 

BURL

 

BOOM - DMC Global -- recent building products acquisition diversifying away from "perforating systems and associated hardware for the global oil and gas industry" and ''explosion-welded cladding technology" -- energy industry ~1/3 pro forma sales

 

ALV - Autoliv

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Both ASC.L and BOO.L are now at 52-week lows. I have been considering buying back both. The last time didn't go that well and I was lucky I sold.

 

BOO.L 5-year average ROCE is ~25%. There's a recent VIC write-up for the interested.

 

Stocks on the London Stock Exchange seem to be quite cheap. FEVR.L is also at 52-week lows.

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