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Does anyone have a good framework to analyze/value MRNA?

There's the windfall revenues/profits for 2021, possibly 2022.

Very much unclear what happens after that. Maybe they will have other (blockbuster?) products, maybe not.

So, is there a way to value this or is this "too hard" pile?

Somewhat OT: GILD in similar (?) situation was not analyzed well. šŸ„“

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Interesting investment and still studying; if mRNA is not a one-off tech(embrace dem ambiguity), possibly north of 100b market cap for patient shareholders.

Booster shots, multivalent vaccines => cash flow => fund developmental pipeline => dish out high margin monopoly profits => rinse and repeat

- Globally certified trend towards mRNA technology; quick development time, highly replicable, scalable, no need of bespoke production facilities, no actual virus needed

- Possible future govt backingĀ as Moderna is their home-soil champ and they can't cede mRNA control over to German giants. In America, Moderna is pretty much the defacto choice for mRNA investment. Don't see how smaller players threaten BNT and Moderna, they already have massive cash flows coming in to fund R&D. Furthermore, vaccine order surplus due to country groupthink and safety from familiarity -> locked in cash flows should virus persist.

- Valuation : 3.5x EV/APA , 4.6x EV/2021 EBITDA?

Would love to hear what others' have to say about this.

P.s. have not had much exposure to pharma, what happened to GILD if I may ask?


Edited by n.r98
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I think COVID-19 has unlocked the pot. of the mRNA technology , but it is unclear to me how much of a barrier to entry there for other vaccine giants to catch-up over time.

There have been development that make me believe that mRNA will be a big deal beyond just COVID-19 like an effective Malaria vaccine (which has been elusiveĀ with traditional technologies):


If Malaria mRNA vaccines work out, it would be huge for Mankind and probably for the company that develops this and it would clearly show that mRNA COVID-19 is not a one off success.

In the short run, I expect that COVID-19 vaccines will become an annually with annual booster shots, as COVID-19 is unlikely to ever go away.

I donā€™t know what all this means for Moderna stock, but I think it is unlikely to be a one and done sort of thing.


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