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Company with a catalyst within 4 months


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So, I'm in a kind of investing team and its tradition to take part in an investing competition: Flow Traders.

 

We want of course to win but we need a company with a catalyst within 4 months to have to chance of winning.

Stocks, options and turbo's are aloud and the return is measured on a risk-adjusted basis, which is calculated with the volatility of an investment.

 

Maybe someone has a nice suggestion?

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Totally agree. 

 

Fairfax - Q1 earnings to show how they monetized their BB position during the recent spike.

 

Beat me to it. But not even really regarding BB. Just the MTM on their equity portfolio should be enough even if they didn't lock in BB.

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For a more speculative play, AQMS. Sustainably focused battery recycling company that switched to an asset-light licensing model. Expected to sign its first licensing contract shortly. Recently paid off all debt and has a comfortable cash position.

 

Similar situation as Anterix (ATEX), which spiked 50% upon signing its first contract to provide spectrum in December.

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Fairfax - Q1 earnings to show how they monetized their BB position during the recent spike.

 

Beat me to it. But not even really regarding BB. Just the MTM on their equity portfolio should be enough even if they didn't lock in BB.

 

Agreed. My math says the Fairfax equity holdings are up about $60/share (pre- tax) since Jan 1 (after the big sell off today). Of this about $25/share is mark to market and $35/share are equity accounted (not mark to market). And based on what we saw with Q4 equity gains, my numbers miss a bunch of stuff (so they are likely low).

 

I think the release of the FFH Annual Report March 15 might also be a catalyst. Prem said on the Q4 conference call that they would be providing additional disclosure around the equity holdings as he felt investors did not understand/appreciate the value of the equity holdings. If this highlights value that is not currently well understood by Mr Market this should help the share price. Especially the analyst community who appear to pretty much ignore Fairfax’s equity holdings in their analysis. This could lead to upwards revisions for Q1 earnings in March as it becomes more clear Fairfax will be booking substantial gains in their equity portfolio.

 

The completion of the IPO’s of both Farmers Edge and Boat Rocker next week will also help unearth value that Mr Market is missing.

 

We also should get the closure of the Riverstone UK sale in the next couple of weeks which will provide Fairfax with the funds to pay off the revolver (greatly improve their debt profile). Yes, this is a known transaction but it is important and will be good to complete

 

If they actually monetized BB that will just be icing on the cake (and yes, it would cause shares to spike depending on the specifics).

 

And i do not think Fairfax is done with on the ‘monetization’ front. My guess is we will be getting more announcements in the next month or two.

 

Nice to see Fairfax once again playing Edmonton Oiler (Gretzky) offense instead of Chris Chelios (beat the sh*t out of the other guy) defense :-) Much more fun to watch as a shareholder.

 

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I can't believe no one has suggested GSE preferreds! SCOTUS case decision will come in less than 4 months and the market is not pricing in anything positive at all. So I say FNMAL is your pick. Current volatility is low, but will go up later.

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Also, according to the Fannie Mae thread, there may be a catalyst as soon as April

 

Very interesting. But looks like something with uncertainty I can't judge accurately, so will throw it in my too hard pile.

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