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Here are some Twitter threads to check out.  I have been invested in this company for less than a month now only due to some Twitter threads, but that sure has proved fortuitous.  Basically, what I garnered was they are quickly growing, but the actual people that have used their service say that it's not that great, and the demand comes from older people.  It looks like young people don't use the service that much at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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We love this little name.  Market is still nascent and CDON has not yet secured its place at the top, but if they do, the opportunity is massive (multi-bagger potential).  It's caught a bit of a bid over the past several days, but I think the market is still massively underpricing the optionality around CDON's ability to scale into this market, and the recent strength in the stock will ultimately be a tiny drop in the bucket.

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We love this little name.  Market is still nascent and CDON has not yet secured its place at the top, but if they do, the opportunity is massive (multi-bagger potential). 

 

movys, I see they have tiny market share in the Nordics and are growing rapidly, but it's not because eCommerce is under-penetrated, it's because the marketplace model basically doesn't exist like it does in most other markets.  Any idea why that's the case?  And why that would just now be changing?  Seems like if anything the barriers to shopping at / creating individual websites have come down.  Obviously they are growing rapidly, so something is changing, it just seems odd that CDON is the #1 marketplace in the Nordics and has <1% share of eCommerce in 2021...

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My guess is geography and population density. Why didn't Amazon enter Sweden until the fall of 2020? More than 20 years after Germany, just across the North Sea. Pure laziness? Probably not. Sweden has 1/8 the population of Germany but 1.25x its land mass (yes, most people live in the southern parts but even then the difference with how many people you can reach quickly from the radius of a logistics centre in continental Europe is huge). Norway is half Sweden's population and is for logistical purposes really just a couple of far-apart city islands separated by mountains. Finland is also very sparse and lies about 2 inches off the end of the Earth. Same-day delivery is a pipe dream almost everywhere.

 

These also, obviously, aren't immature markets in any real sense of the word. E-commerce adoption is high and internet penetration likewise. So this is not the issue.

 

But what the hell do I know? Now that CDON is a stonk, they can start using it as currency to buy scale or to get patient investors who will tolerate losses to build that scale. Maybe that was what was missing all along - zero cost of capital. But then again, Amazon already had that for a long, long time and still didn't come.

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My guess is geography and population density. Why didn't Amazon enter Sweden until the fall of 2020? More than 20 years after Germany, just across the North Sea. Pure laziness? Probably not. Sweden has 1/8 the population of Germany but 1.25x its land mass (yes, most people live in the southern parts but even then the difference with how many people you can reach quickly from the radius of a logistics centre in continental Europe is huge). Norway is half Sweden's population and is for logistical purposes really just a couple of far-apart city islands separated by mountains. Finland is also very sparse and lies about 2 inches off the end of the Earth. Same-day delivery is a pipe dream almost everywhere.

 

These also, obviously, aren't immature markets in any real sense of the word. E-commerce adoption is high and internet penetration likewise. So this is not the issue.

 

But what the hell do I know? Now that CDON is a stonk, they can start using it as currency to buy scale or to get patient investors who will tolerate losses to build that scale. Maybe that was what was missing all along - zero cost of capital. But then again, Amazon already had that for a long, long time and still didn't come.

 

There isn’t any cheap labor to be had in these countries either.

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My guess is geography and population density. Why didn't Amazon enter Sweden until the fall of 2020? More than 20 years after Germany, just across the North Sea. Pure laziness? Probably not. Sweden has 1/8 the population of Germany but 1.25x its land mass (yes, most people live in the southern parts but even then the difference with how many people you can reach quickly from the radius of a logistics centre in continental Europe is huge). Norway is half Sweden's population and is for logistical purposes really just a couple of far-apart city islands separated by mountains. Finland is also very sparse and lies about 2 inches off the end of the Earth. Same-day delivery is a pipe dream almost everywhere.

 

These also, obviously, aren't immature markets in any real sense of the word. E-commerce adoption is high and internet penetration likewise. So this is not the issue.

 

But what the hell do I know? Now that CDON is a stonk, they can start using it as currency to buy scale or to get patient investors who will tolerate losses to build that scale. Maybe that was what was missing all along - zero cost of capital. But then again, Amazon already had that for a long, long time and still didn't come.

 

Agreed regarding Amazon. They are typically good at prioritizing opportunities. Labor unions, small TAM in comparison to other opportunities they had. Even their launch seems like it was not done with much care or taken too seriously: https://www.wired.co.uk/article/amazon-sweden-launch

 

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