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WISH - Wish.com


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Latest reports are that Wish will file for a $1 billion IPO at a valuation of just $14 billion. The FT reported a valuation between $25 and $35 billion a couple weeks ago so $14 billion seems low. The last VC round was ~$11 billion and that was August last year.

 

Wish is kind of a downscale, mobile first Amazon that serves 100 million people mostly outside the US. The merchandize is hit and miss so churn is a problem. Balancing out the churn  is that Wish has required relatively little investment to get to 100 millioon users over 10 years. There's a large cash float that makes growth positive cash flow as long as revenues are growing.

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1822250/000119312520298630/d82777ds1.htm

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If trends are anything to go by, my fiancee and her friends all use wish instead of amazon or aliexpress.

While a lot of products are the same, the recommendations are extraordinary good.

 

I tried it out yesterday. Put a grey vase into my shopping basket here are the recommendations:

Amazon: Same vase from a different seller, vase in a different color, vase in a different shape

Aliexpress: same as Amazon

Wish: LED Strips with pictures that show vases being illuminated, decorative fake flowers, decorative glass marbles.

 

At first I didn't understand wish.com either, but upon further exploration it is convenient to shop around, especially on mobile and the recommendations make sense and get you to actually spend more money.

 

Looking at the numbers the valuation of 14 billion would be pretty fair. Giving the recent IPOs of Airbnb and DoorDash i expect that number to be much higher and valuations at IPO being double or being triple that. If those multipliers occur, I would definitely stay away from it.

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If trends are anything to go by, my fiancee and her friends all use wish instead of amazon or aliexpress.

While a lot of products are the same, the recommendations are extraordinary good.

 

I tried it out yesterday. Put a grey vase into my shopping basket here are the recommendations:

Amazon: Same vase from a different seller, vase in a different color, vase in a different shape

Aliexpress: same as Amazon

Wish: LED Strips with pictures that show vases being illuminated, decorative fake flowers, decorative glass marbles.

 

At first I didn't understand wish.com either, but upon further exploration it is convenient to shop around, especially on mobile and the recommendations make sense and get you to actually spend more money.

 

Looking at the numbers the valuation of 14 billion would be pretty fair. Giving the recent IPOs of Airbnb and DoorDash i expect that number to be much higher and valuations at IPO being double or being triple that. If those multipliers occur, I would definitely stay away from it.

 

Welcome to COBF. It's interesting what you say because the audience is supposed to be mostly outside the US. There are some funny "what I ordered from Wish - what I got from Wish" memes on Twitter.  If this trades at just $14 billion I would buy some but the float is tiny and it won't stay near the IPO price, I would guess.

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