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Anecdotally as somebody who lives in NYC and knows folks in the real estate game so I ask every now and again what's going on in 7% mortgage land.....to transactions and prices....the answer I get back pretty much...... is there is so much intergenerational wealth in the Northeast, which allows enough prospective purchasers to skip over the problems that say 7%+  mortgage rates would provide to a more normal middle America population pool that NYC property is barely skipping a beat.

 

The Bank of Mam & Dad GSIBs wouldn't like to see DTI's or large deposit requirements mess up the next generations acquisition of an NYC pad. Twin that with low inventory (the 3% 30yr fixed rate crowd) and deals still are getting done at flat-ish prices versus 21/22.

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6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Anecdotally as somebody who lives in NYC and knows folks in the real estate game so I ask every now and again what's going on in 7% mortgage land.....to transactions and prices....the answer I get back pretty much...... is there is so much intergenerational wealth in the Northeast, which allows enough prospective purchasers to skip over the problems that say 7%+  mortgage rates would provide to a more normal middle America population pool that NYC property is barely skipping a beat.

 

The Bank of Mam & Dad GSIBs wouldn't like to see DTI's or large deposit requirements mess up the next generations acquisition of an NYC pad. Twin that with low inventory (the 3% 30yr fixed rate crowd) and deals still are getting done at flat-ish prices versus 21/22.

 

I'm in the Bay Area in Cali and a decently priced house in a good neighborhood is still flying off the MLS. 

 

Just no inventory at all...

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Another NY firm dumpster diving in NY junk eh? If I was fishing for NY bros they’d all be caught on the same lure. 
 

Jokes aside office is so extremely beaten down, as is a lot of the sketchy reit stuff, that you can probably make some money on a bounce. But to actually be investing here I think it’s just a much tougher proposition that requires a bit of blind faith. The whole occupancy issue and spiral is gonna take time to play out. Still think ESRT is the best of the bunch.
 

 

Edited by Gregmal
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On 7/11/2023 at 4:04 PM, changegonnacome said:

Yep there's just a super solid bid under certain locations.......in stock market parlance......these are low beta locations.......and the cap rates (or multiples) folks pay reflect exactly that.

 

For other buyers (low/no cash, first/second time homeowners, younger and middle class), there is no inventory.

 

Hence the homebuilders doing well and stuff like homebuilders and JOE/PCYO etc. catching a bid. Although JOE also has some additional drivers (coastline expansion, retirement/vacation homes etc.). But my take is that it is new builds rather than existing inventory turning over.

Edited by LC
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7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Still think ESRT is the best of the bunch.

 

Yep made some serious $$$ back in the day in this name.........ESRT works.......cause it's not really office at all.......in all practicality it should trade more with United airlines and marriott than CRE given so much of the intrinsic value is a indestructible tourist attraction in Midtown Manhattan

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  • 3 weeks later...
18 minutes ago, Spooky said:

I’m in NYC for work and it is bumping here, lots of energy and people. Also, I just ran into I just Stanley Druckenmiller at a restaurant in Midtown (the restaurant was packed).

Yep, I was in over the weekend and the baby is back. Was a damn blast, every hood I was in was packed like 2016.

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