willie2013 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Short WFH at high valuations and use proceeds to buy REIT/Airlines/Oil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Initial reaction has been a pop of around 10% in energy, 10% in financials and 20-30% in travel related names and real estate. Obviously quite big moves but then again these sectors are still well below pre-COVID levels and had already sold off significantly from the summer when the initial re-opening/V shaped recovery fervour was taking steam and the market is so driven by momentum that there might be a much longer rally before the good news is fully priced in. Of course still some uncertainties re approvals/timing of the roll out. But perhaps there is an opportunity here. Real Estate and entertainment is basically in the clear now. I couldn't understand the appeal of financials/energy(outside of being cheap) vs the aforementioned for the simple reason that once covid went away, so did all their problems, now, just one less. Energy and financials have been lousy investments for the past half decade for good reason. They have tons of problems. With real estate, avoid B/C or worse quality retail and otherwise from here, even after todays rally, IMO, theres still massive rerating going to occur. Its one of the rare instances Ive seen in a while where there is more upside in the safer asset. People will be back in the offices in a couples quarters, retail will then firm up(even ignoring high quality retail assets already trading at sub 5 caps) and the spread to treasuries will be too big to ignore. I actually added a bit more JBGS and ESRT at the open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelagic Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Anyone know any public manufacturers of refrigeration units that would provide small household refrigerator size units capable of -80? Most pharmacies and doctors offices don't have the capability in place to store a vax at those temps. And getting people to go to hospitals/university research centers that might have storage at those temps is likely to reduce the % vaccinated in any meaningful time. People for the most part trust their doctors/pharmacists that they interact with daily but asking them to go get vaccinated somewhere new probably won't go over that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Pupil, Great point. But wuss for trimming. JK 33% in urban RE to 30%. 2020 would have been better for me if I’d been more of a wuss and managed risk/concentration better. That’s why the name isn’t theMaster. Gregmal, I sold all my JBGS today....then bought it all again...tax gain harvest, same with berkshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I actually really like BRK here. Between the buybacks and the expertise wrt to financial and energy, that's probably one of the safest ways to play those spaces, albeit in a big vagina kind of way. There's definitely cheap financials and energy names out there, but I'd rather be a greedy pig in RE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Thread on vaccine trial: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boilermaker75 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Anyone have the cajones to lever up at this point? I've essentially been fully invested, but have continuously written puts. So if I get put to on everything outstanding I would be about 5% on margin. Unlikely, most of my put positions are now well out-of-the money. (Nov 13, 200-strike BRKB puts, Dec 18 190-strike BRKB puts, Nov 13, 22-strike WFC puts, Dec 18, 42.5-strike KO puts, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab60 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Anyone have the cajones to lever up at this point? Only smallish, was 120 pct long Friday, added some more today. But I have 40 pct between Berkshire and Altria and mostly dabble in boring GARPy stocks with good balance sheets and no companies with both financial and operating leverage, so less agressive than it might sound. What are everyones favorite picks here? I bought a chunk Park Aerospace because I like the LT story, but lots of cash on BS so not all that beaten up. RE still looks cheapish, just don't like financial and operating leverage combined, but also that is a winner here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 the real news is not that we have a vaccine, it is the high efficacy (90% indicated). A vaccine that with only 50% efficacy is not a game changer, one with 90% is. I do agree it doesn't really change anything for the next few month, but it does indicate the light at the end of the tunnel. Now I would like to hear how the vaccine rollout is going to be handled, because handling the logistics well is crucial. An now it's even more important to contain the spread as well as possible so we don't have another 200k dead before this vaccine is available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Read the Footnotes Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Did a bit more reading and yeah only 50M doses estimated to be available by the year end enough for 25M people and that has to be divided between the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU. So it probably doesn't spare us from the possibility of rolling lockdowns through to the spring and you are right it could take some time to build out supply chains to handle the challenges of mass distribution. So the original timeline of mass distribution by summer 2021 might still be the most realistic outcome. Nice job, Mattee, of taking the time to point out some reality in your multiple posts on the subject. The truth is that Mattee's posts may only scratch the surface of how much some enthusiastic people may be overestimating the speed of distribution especially if you are talking about the amount of time for the body to acclimate after a second dose, we are talking a minimum of a month from first dose to second dose and then more time for your body to adapt after the second dose. It's good news, but it doesn't really change the optimistic schedule and we will all be wearing face masks in the mean time. If this is a positive harbinger for other candidates, some of which are much cheaper and with easier distribution, then multiple competing approved vaccines would start to chip away much more rapidly, but again many people have been counting on that outcome, so to some extent it is baked in to very optimistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Did a bit more reading and yeah only 50M doses estimated to be available by the year end enough for 25M people and that has to be divided between the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU. So it probably doesn't spare us from the possibility of rolling lockdowns through to the spring and you are right it could take some time to build out supply chains to handle the challenges of mass distribution. So the original timeline of mass distribution by summer 2021 might still be the most realistic outcome. is the bottleneck of the supply chain safe distribution (chillers etc) or fabrication (actual biochemical work) ? in other words, can many additional biolabs be recruited to increase supply? I am almost thinking of biden using extraordinary measures (which I imagine he would be happy to do) to mobilize production and not just logistics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Did a bit more reading and yeah only 50M doses estimated to be available by the year end enough for 25M people and that has to be divided between the US, the UK, Canada, Japan and the EU. So it probably doesn't spare us from the possibility of rolling lockdowns through to the spring and you are right it could take some time to build out supply chains to handle the challenges of mass distribution. So the original timeline of mass distribution by summer 2021 might still be the most realistic outcome. is the bottleneck of the supply chain safe distribution (chillers etc) or fabrication (actual biochemical work) ? in other words, can many additional biolabs be recruited to increase supply? I am almost thinking of biden using extraordinary measures (which I imagine he would be happy to do) to mobilize production and not just logistics... I'm sure that at this point it is already assumed that other biolabs etc are gonna help with production. But you are going to run into those bottlenecks. If this thing needs to be stored/transported at -80 C there's some really specialized equipment involved and it's not cheap either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james22 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 I actually really like BRK here. Between the buybacks and the expertise wrt to financial and energy, that's probably one of the safest ways to play those spaces, albeit in a big vagina kind of way. That's my thinking (BAM too). Added today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Pupil, Great point. But wuss for trimming. JK 33% in urban RE to 30%. 2020 would have been better for me if I’d been more of a wuss and managed risk/concentration better. That’s why the name isn’t theMaster. Gregmal, I sold all my JBGS today....then bought it all again...tax gain harvest, same with berkshire. You didn't ask. But I am at 50% RE (urban and non-urban) and added today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 Pfizer and BioNTech to request emergency authorization from FDA for Covid-19 vaccine https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/20/covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-will-apply-for-fda-emergency-use-authorization.html If you have not finished your basement by now you should start to think of speeding things up!!! Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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