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CINR: Ciner Resources


NoCalledStrikes
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Started in CINR....has anyone done work on this? There was a decent write up on VIC. Looks interesting at these prices as long as they stay liquid (which they seem to be doing). Soda Ash consumption seems to be increasing globally. A few catalysts would be EVs and increased Solar panels. CINR seems to be positioned very well long term. If I had to guess the and some other subsidies will all be brought under the umbrella of We Soda (which has discussed IPO). CINR has no baggage like GEL which is also tied to O&G. Divy also seems like it will come back at some point.  Unfortunately there is a K-1. Sorry a bit of a ramble.

 

They have a nice asset in Wyoming, which is cost-advantaged relative to synthetic production, and cost-advantaged relative to other trona miners.  However, I don't trust management.  Didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out they inflating annual production through deca rehydration, and eventually production would drop off significantly.  The manner in which they disclosed this made them appear either dishonest or incompetent.  Happy to chat more about this one on a dedicated thread for CINR.

 

Read the same VIC pitch and I'm in too. Lets start one :)

 

This entity still has 50% IDR’s. Automatic pass for me.

 

While IDR's are horrible if you are owning the units for the long-term, if you are owning for a reversion to mean play, they are quite useful in motivating greedy owners.  I wrote up CINR last year, https://nocalledstrikes.com/2019/09/23/get-paid-to-wait-with-ciner-resources/ pre-covid.  I no longer own it as the management risk of cross-dealing disadvantaging US operations increases greatly in a down soda ash market which I figured could only happen in a global recession which we now have. I also have increasing management concerns on their ability to execute on the expansion project and the takeover of U.S. exports from the domestic export consortium.  That said, a distribution reinstatement (easily doable if they halted/delayed the expansion) would generate a nice pop.

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