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ESRT- Empire State Realty Trust


Gregmal
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Read Pupils Paramount write up, and was inspired to put this one out there.

 

Refer to the company overview and investor presentation for references:

http://investors.empirestaterealtytrust.com/Cache/IRCache/abcb17e3-e55e-b7f8-7448-2cc6369d513f.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=abcb17e3-e55e-b7f8-7448-2cc6369d513f&iid=4313470

 

http://investors.empirestaterealtytrust.com/Presentations

 

Check out most recent 4/22/20 presentation

 

But this one is somewhat simple and the timing is really the driver as all these things from VNO down have been "reset".

 

Headlined by legendary NYC RE investor Peter Malkin, this one was long fought in terms of even getting to be public as the convoluted ownership group feared wild fluctuations in the stock market(and thus their holdings) like we have just recently seen. So, to the new investor, here is your chance.

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/i-p-o-for-empire-state-building-gets-shareholder-backing/

 

You've got a healthy balance sheet, currently net debt to EV is ~35%, more importantly average maturity is more than 7 years out and 80% of the portfolio unencumbered

 

A few preferred/OP issues out there.

 

A month or so ago there was a thread asking "who is buying back stock right now"/ these guys were, and big time, acquiring north of 4% outstanding at an average price below $10.

 

Tenant roster is robust, highlighted by EY, Legg Mason, LinkedIn, IPG, and PartnerRE

 

Rent collected for April was about 70%, surprisingly strong for a city that was shut

 

What I am attracted to here is yes the namesake trophy asset, but further, The Observatory, which may single handedly be one of the greatest income generating assets of all time. Its  the commercial equivalent to letting people pay you to walk around your attic and then on the way out charging them $25 for a shitty $3 ceramic mug. There is again a simplicity with the assets here, something I tend to favor over gargantuans with so many properties and moving parts that it becomes impossible to stay on top of the day to day.

 

Other notable assets include locations at Herald's Sq, Grand Central Terminal, and a slew of other mid town assets along with a few properties in Westchester and CT

 

 

The company is well managed and has a track record that allows me to feel comforted that they are not a liability here. You really dont need geniuses to do well in these types of assets, you just need to avoid hucksters who will rob you.

 

I was very impressed with the conservative nature of the COVID impact assumptions and timelines they gave on normalization. Despite this, the company continues to pay its regular dividends, repurchase shares, and explore value enhancing redevelopment opportunities. Much of this is linked above and was touched on with the most recent call, I am just lazy and highlighting right now.

 

I have long tracked this asset but never felt the desire to own it at the $15-$20 price range its traded at since coming public. But here, provided you think that things eventually normalize over the next 2-3 years, it's a simple, conservative shot at 50-100% upside not including dividends and repurchases made along the way. I find it difficult to envision losing money on ESRT @ $8 per share.

 

 

 

 

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I've looked at it for a diversification/basket type play.  Thanks for the background on the management.  I didn't know that.  I think I saw the Quataris owned like 30 million shares/biggest slug.  I've liked several of their presentations. 

 

Did they count deposits forfeited in that collection figure?  Just curious.  SLG collected 86% but one of the analysts asked if they included deposits in that because some other peer did and Marc Holiday was like "C'mon you kidding' me? Cash rent."  I am wondering who it was. {edit, I think it was them/ESRT.  They provided both figures tho with forfeited deposits and without, so it's not like it was sketchy, but with the deposits it was very close to SLG's figures so I can see why the analyst asked}

 

 

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I believe the number of April rents if including deposits was mentioned to be ~85%.

 

As to the cash flows, there has been some redevelopment cost as well as a deliberate effort in some cases to run off congregants of smaller tenants hoping to then release to a single larger one. This can naturally cause somewhat extended drags on the occupancy rates and NOI, but will result in a higher quality lease. There's currently about 500k sf of which 30% is in the ES for development. I think part of the upside is the $40M or so free rent burn off and commencement thru YE 21. Over the past several years, as they've made some improvements, you've had the double whack of TI(cost) and free rent period, and in some cases, reimbursements but I haven't gotten an idea yet the degree to which those would be consistent or one off. You also have existing tenant expansion and improvements which can mask some of the future figure. The LinkedIn expansion is a good example of this. Typically, their lease spreads have been decent.

 

The one thing I dont care for is that they of course pay themselves quite handsomely. But whatever. At $8 per share you live with that.

 

Below was a great snippet from the recent earnings call

 

 

For years I have said repeatedly, that we would maintain the balance sheet to execute our strategy and provide for future growth. During that period, we have been criticized for too much cash on our balance sheet too low leverage failure to repurchase stock. And failure to buy at what we have repeatedly said we thought was a market top.

 

We have avoided exposure to FADs like co-working and short-term leases. As of the quarter end we held over $1 billion in cash on hand. Commenced in early March and through April 22 we purchased 8.5 million shares at a weighted average price of $9.37 per share totaling $79.8 million in aggregate.

 

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89% occupied, $58 / foot rents, concentration near Penn Station where VNO is about to dump $2 billion of re-development making their buildings shinier and more competitive, largest tenant is Global Brands Group which is a rinky dink hong kong listed company that trades for $0.2.

 

I recognize that they have been renovated substantially, but this portfolio is basically 100 years old. while that is a testament to the durability of hard assets (something along the lines of "they don't make them like they used to" is perhaps appropriate), it means that this is commodity office and not trophy office. In ESRT's presentations own words, it is "Class B". That's not to say it's worse or better, but wouldn't this be higher beta? if shit hits the fan, won't the newer nicer buildings lower their rents and attract all the tenants to that are slumming it in a 1925 building to move to a 1975 building? Hudson Yards and One Vandy own all the $150 / foot tenants which are few in number, then the SLG's (non-One Vandy), PGRE's  and VNO's of the world are lower (VNO is $76), then these guys are another step down.

 

aren't these the employees/divisions who might get re-located to the hinterlands in an NYC exodus?

 

I want a big gleaming 1960's or newer brutalist structure that screams at the CMBS buyers of the world "lend to me at 3.0% interest only you little yield pig". I want CEO vanity projects like 61 Ninth Avenue  (aetna built this ridiculous building for shits and gigs then subleased it to Yext when they got bought out)

https://www.vno.com/office/property/61-ninth-avenue/3312727/landing

 

this is a different trade. willing to hear why you think it's a better trade, but I'm not so sure. 

 

111 West 33rd:              1954

501 7th Ave:                  1923

1350 Broadway:            1928

1400 Broadway:            1930

One Grand Central Place: 1929

250 W 57th                    1927

1333 Broadway              1926

1359 Broadway              1924

Empire State Building      1930

 

 

Also, does the CEO own a unit at 220 CPS? Or did he develop it? Didn't think so. This is a pre-requisite for investing in NYC office.

 

Your CEO must be in the cool kid crowd and own at least one unit at 220CPS. if you don't own a unit at 220CPS, you might as well live an outer borough. 

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Agreed there are "better", "shinier" and more "desirable" locations out there. The buildings are for the most part on the older side. I like one of a kind assets, and there's only one Empire State Building. The other buildings while older to me are interchangeable with a lot else of what I own or have looked at.

 

I also think the capital allocation here is stellar. How many guys, cool kids or not, get on an analyst call and basically say "see you dumb fuck this is why I had all that cash when you criticized me, and now we're buying hand over first while everyone else is caught with their pants down"...

 

Buybacks, plus dividends, plus an unequivocal discount to NAV is one of my favorite formulas. I like SPG, I like VNO, HHC, the PGRE idea is a good one as well. To a degree they are all tied to the same recovery. Some in different ways than others. VNO has the best assets, they also have the most. The advantage to me with this much of a discount and a smaller company, is this. How do you ultimately solve the discount to NAV? By monetizing assets. VNO and SPG will have to sell a lot more assets to move the needle, and even then, if they are sellers who is the buyer? Whereas these little old smallco's(ESRT, PGRE, FRPH, HHC) are small and simple enough that they can pull an asset out of their ass and immediately rerate. At $8 a share, I dont think you need anything other than Father Time to make money here as things normalize. This goes for all the NYC RE names. But having another way to win works for me as well. Its similar to why I own MSGN vs SBGI. Sure I like RSN's. They are both "cheap". But if I am wrong monetizing one or two assets its a much easier bailout scenario than running some long arduous process for dozens of them. Provided you dont buy at a premium to NAV or see significant mismanagement, you should do OK. Capital allocation is huge and I like what these guys have done. Much better than a company like HHC which, despite having massively superior assets, has destroyed a lot of value the past year; not even factoring in the coronavirus issues.

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Agreed there are "better", "shinier" and more "desirable" locations out there. The buildings are for the most part on the older side. I like one of a kind assets, and there's only one Empire State Building. The other buildings while older to me are interchangeable with a lot else of what I own or have looked at.

 

I also think the capital allocation here is stellar. How many guys, cool kids or not, get on an analyst call and basically say "see you dumb fuck this is why I had all that cash when you criticized me, and now we're buying hand over first while everyone else is caught with their pants down"...

 

Buybacks, plus dividends, plus an unequivocal discount to NAV is one of my favorite formulas. I like SPG, I like VNO, HHC, the PGRE idea is a good one as well. To a degree they are all tied to the same recovery. Some in different ways than others. VNO has the best assets, they also have the most. The advantage to me with this much of a discount and a smaller company, is this. How do you ultimately solve the discount to NAV? By monetizing assets. VNO and SPG will have to sell a lot more assets to move the needle, and even then, if they are sellers who is the buyer? Whereas these little old smallco's(ESRT, PGRE, FRPH, HHC) are small and simple enough that they can pull an asset out of their ass and immediately rerate. At $8 a share, I dont think you need anything other than Father Time to make money here as things normalize. This goes for all the NYC RE names. But having another way to win works for me as well. Its similar to why I own MSGN vs SBGI. Sure I like RSN's. They are both "cheap". But if I am wrong monetizing one or two assets its a much easier bailout scenario than running some long arduous process for dozens of them. Provided you dont buy at a premium to NAV or see significant mismanagement, you should do OK. Capital allocation is huge and I like what these guys have done. Much better than a company like HHC which, despite having massively superior assets, has destroyed a lot of value the past year; not even factoring in the coronavirus issues.

 

very fair point and I agree with you about the small factor, generally. PGRE sold 1/10 of  the equity in its biggest building and generated 5% of its market cap in cash. VNO has sold a lot of 220 CPS units, including $150mm post covid, but that's not the same when its on a $7 billion market cap.

 

my big insight for the day is that $2 billion is less than $7 billion.

 

the flip side of that, and this thinking is admittedly soooo 2014, but there is an argument for "platform value"/scale/shiny-ness advantage to being big. relationships with bankers/PE firms/sovereign wealth funds. There's a reason Norges owns 9% of VNO and PGRE and not ESRT**. Norwegians want to stash their oil money abroad in big shiny buildings, they can't buy enough on the private market to move the needle, so their only choice is VNO/PGRE whatever. Likewise, VNO JV'd their flagship upper 5th / times square retail to the qataris at a steamy valuation. no one is going to pay a 4 cap during retailpocalypse for ESRT's retail, but they did with VNO because they can put 100's of millions to work in times square signage and vanity retail. Now someone could pony up an uneconomic price to buy THE Empire State Building and The Observatory. So I'll agree with that.

 

agree to disagree here and it's all kind of splitting hairs as they kind of have the same drivers, but I think VNO/PGRE are lower risk even if they are more levered.

 

Neverhteless,  I think you are highly likely to make money on this.

 

**to be fair Norges does own a little ESRT but they also own like 2-3% of the world's stocks. And the Qatari's own a slug of ESRT so I guess they like ESRT too.

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True dat.

 

Its funny. Some are still debating whether March was really throw darts at a board territory or not. Newsflash, with some of these NYRE plays, you are still in throw darts at a board territory. There's only nothing to invest in right now if you arent willing to invest in things worth investing in. Thats my big insight for the day.

 

 

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Any thoughts on management comp here and how much to take off the valuation for it? I was surprised at the level of G&A, and then read the transcript and noted that they are hiring 2 new C level execs, one of whom they expect to build out a team around them. And that's a CIO, so I'm sure the team members wont be making a measly $200k...

 

Edited to add: I really like this. I'd like it more if was just the empire state building, and even more if it was just the observatory. That's a great asset.

 

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I hate the exec comp here. Nothing more to really add there. They are overpaid. Its hard to find reasonably comped RE executives in the public universe. My biggest gripe about investing there. Theyre all overpaid.

 

On the additional execs, they did mention on the call we will have a lot more clarity there shortly. If this were 50-100% higher, it would be a bigger issue for me. At least right now, I can tell myself they may have earned they pay(paid for by shareholders who owned this at twice the current price) by sticking to their guns and keeping the company in tip top financial shape. How many companies were aggressively buying back mid single digit %s of their stock between 3/1-4/20?

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My friend works in the Empire State building. The company originally had 6 floors and happened to cut to 3 prior to COVID. Right before the stay at home measures, it was her first day at her new desk. The reason for the cut is because the company found that on average half the people are not in the office on any given day. So now they're doing shared work space. You don't get your own desk, you just get a designated desk for the day, and a drawer to keep your stuff in.

 

Don't really have any input. Wanted to share that anecdote. I know there is a separate thread on WFH trends, so I will look there.

 

I really do like the Observatory asset and agree that it makes this a potentially interesting play.

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Gregmal, thank you for posting this idea. Observatory seems to be the crown jewel and will last regardless of what happens to the rest of the RE portfolio. Thus it probably serves to value it separately.

 

How would you go about doing that? The company says the market value of the Observatory rent is $82 million /year, that comes out to $1,062/sqft based on 80,000 sqft size. After accounting for the intercompany rent, the pretax earning of the unit is $12.5 m.

 

So I am thinking to put a cap rate of like 5% on the intercompany rent, however it doesn't include operating expenses namely RE tax.

 

The 82mn figure is about 12% of total rental revenue. So take 12% of the $115mn RE taxes, and we get $14 mn. So that comes out to (82-14) $68mn approx NOI on the Observatory RE. 5% cap on that is $1.3 billion.

 

As far as the $12.5 m pretax earnings of the Observatory, we can slap a 16x multiple on there for a $200 million valuation for the operation.

 

Add $1.3 billion to $200 million and we have $1.5 billion value for the Observatory including the RE.

 

Company EV is about $3.9 billion, subtract the $1.5 and you get $2.4 billion / 10 mn sq ft of space is $240 / ft for the remaining company.

 

What do you think of my math or am I missing something?

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What do you think the impact will be of the opening of SL Green's One Vanderbilt Observatory (another 1,000 ft+ location in Midtown) in Q4 2021?

 

Slides 97 - 102 (yeah its a 250 slide deck) of the linked presentation may be of interest to see what assumptions SL Green are making and how they are underwriting their Observatory: https://slgreen.gcs-web.com/static-files/f187c1df-7350-408e-b73b-083d37850dea

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As to the above two posts:

 

 

On valuation, its tough because of where we currently are with the CRE market. My assumptions I try to leave generalized. If I can tell the man is fat, thats good enough here given the circumstances. The entire company per the stock market was worth $14 per share/~$5.75B EV pre-COVID. We know for certain it IS NOT worth that now. So then the question is, how much less? I wasn't an investor at $14 and wouldn't be now. I am a believer in the asset and think much of this is just time arbitrage. If push comes to shove I just needed to get comfortable with 2 things. 1) That the value of what a buyer is willing to pay TODAY, would be much more than the current EV. 2) Things will normalize in 3-5 years and pre COVID valuations will probably need to get bumped because of monetary policy and lower rates. Both those things bode well for me here.

 

The problem with using cap rates for a hard figure is that you dont have sufficient post COVID data. Many properties in various parts of the CRE market are still no bid. Its by and large getting better. But the only thing that is moving and at least comparable to preCOVID is some of the net lease stuff. What is appropriate for run of the mill NY office today? No clue. Again, less than pre COVID. By how much? I highly doubt 30-50% less. Their "other" properties are nothing special. Not bad, not good, just kind of a revenue streamer that insulates the trophy property.

 

The figures you use are fine as a framework. But I'd also mention that with one of a kind stuff, the figures are rarely right and often not optimistic enough. One racist tirade and the LA Clippers estimated value increased 5x. There is likely no shortage of suitors for the Empire State Building. Model it out conservatively, sure, but I would expect to be surprised positively if and when that ever plays out, which for the record, I dont think will be anytime soon.

 

The Observatory I would definitely think is a sub 5 cap, maybe even sub 4. SL Greens knockoff to me is irrelevant. The moat is the asset. The Empire State Building is The Empire State Building. Its a clever use of space and attempt at additional revenue for SL Green, but theres no shortages of cool buildings or things to do/experience/spend money on in NYC. Over and over, its even touched on in the ESRT presentation, people come to NY with the Observatory on their check list of things to do. The Yankees were such a great idea they followed with the Mets. But the Mets are still the Mets which just arent nor will they ever be The Yankees...if that analogy makes sense.

 

The main takeaways I would have here is that

 

1) no I am not "thrilled" with this operationally or in terms of overall quality of the non ES assets. Its not the best investment ever or a top tier ship firing on all cylinders. Its just an incredibly timely investment with very remarkable upside in a bunch of rather conservative scenarios.

2) Simplicity is your friend here with things like this or pupils mention of PGRE. Go look at what VNO just dropped today(or SPG when they release). I dont want to deal with that shit if I am making an investment in any size(I own both but ESRT > VNO+SPG for me)...Just soooooo many different moving pieces and things that can shift. Give me a top tier trophy property and a handful of OK ones any day over that.

3) management is very conservative and will allocate capital responsibly. There is upside with that.

4)This is basically just a very high quality, event driven, discount to NAV play.

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Jon Litt's Land & Buildings is short ESRT and put out a press release with their negative view on NYC office RE.

 

I am still absorbing their view and what that should mean for NYC Office RE but given the discussion around ESRT, VNO, ALX and PGRE (full disclosure I own ALX and PGRE) I thought useful to bring the negative case to the forefront.

 

https://landandbuildings.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LandB-NYC-Office-Facing-Existential-Hurricane-1.pdf

 

Additional info that I think is useful is this CBRE piece - it doesn't draw any conclusions but has useful case studies of early 2000s and GFC Manhattan office rents on page 21, down ~25% and ~30% over 4 years and 3 years respectively.

 

https://f.tlcollect.com/fr2/520/33500/VP_Covid_19_impact_on_Manhattan_Office_-_040120A.pdf

 

Will this downturn have a similar or different impact on the Manhattan office market? Do the prices of NYC office REITs today compensate for this kind of downturn? This is what I am trying to figure out.

 

 

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He may very well be right, but his short thesis isn't very well laid out; other than to state the obvious, Observatory revenue will be bad for a bit, and their buildings are old. If I had to guess this sounds more like a pair/hedge or basket short rather than ESRT is fucked.

 

The CBRE report looks interesting, thanks.

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I would also add, any scenario where the Vandy Observatory "outcompetes" the Empire State Building, is going to be predicated on outrageously positive implications for NYC real estate assets. So I think that theres a major flaw in the thesis that all NYC RE is done for but One Vandy will be a bigger draw/take business from The Observatory...

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So I wouldn't at all be surprised at that kind of drop in spot lease rates, which is why I am focusing on building and tenant quality/lease length. I think a drastic decline in spot rates and spike in vacancy is inevitable. it's whether or not we get to the heady pre-covid rates/occupancy in the out years (with the new supply) that will determine whether or not these are successful investments.

 

Lease length doesn't matter if the tenant goes away / default of course and I think that ESRT's tenants are incrementally more scary than the others as L&B highlights.

 

I think PGRE's 1633 Broadway and ALX's 731 is about as good as it gets in that regard VNO has more variability in both what you're paying and on how Penn shakes out, but VNO is more "west and south" than PGRE's midtown/Rock Center less "trendy" location.

 

i think L&B's characterization of ESRT is pretty high level and similar to my thoughts after 20 minutes of googling the building's ages and looking at the lower rent per foot, lower NOI margins, lower historical and current occupancy, etc of ESRT relative to others. I don't think it adds much analytical value to the discussion and one should give ESRT credit for re-developing its asset base. but I pretty much agree with him.

 

If property taxes and operating costs go up while rents drop, the lowest margin guys will get hit the worst, right? With the lowest NOI margin and the observatory NOI juicing the aggregate, it just seems that ESRT's NOI is most at risk relative to the others. VNO/SLG have high street retail juicing their overall margins too, but it's not like that Observatory beast. only tourist (particularly international) go there and elevators packed with tourist going to the top of a very tall building comes after people going back to work in the covid recovery timeline (if such a thing exists).

 

I think it's tough to figure out where which type of tenants go (if they're switching between buildings in NYC) but would mostly guess that people either pay the same for higher quality or pay lower for the same quality. to make a stretched analysis, it's the marginal oil fields and pipelines that go away in an energy crisis and I characterize ESRT as having incrementally worse assets than the other public guys, but who knows.

 

But in the end, I'll restate that they are all different deck chairs on the titanic and have similar drivers.

 

one should aggregate them for risk management purposes.

 

When Bear Sterns went down, did Lehman shareholders say "see I knew it was them that would go down!" lol.

 

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i think L&B's characterization of ESRT is pretty high level and similar to my thoughts after 20 minutes of googling.

 

Depending on how you read this, this is either brilliant sarcasm or a brilliant and probably unintentional self tout.

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i think L&B's characterization of ESRT is pretty high level and similar to my thoughts after 20 minutes of googling.

 

Depending on how you read this, this is either brilliant sarcasm or a brilliant and probably unintentional self tout.

 

lol it is not self tout. why would I self tout when I've been pimping VNO since the $60's.

 

it is simply saying that ESRT having 100 year old buildings is not unknown or deserving of a press release.

 

Give me a nice Ackman-esque 150 slide deck.

 

I think I need to make a youtube video of me crying and defending Steve Roth. that will help.

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  • 2 weeks later...

What do you all think of this?

 

ESRT just announced they made a 32/3 year old (Emory Undergrad 2009) their Chief Investment Officer

 

https://www.marketscreener.com/EMPIRE-STATE-REALTY-TRUST-14439062/news/Empire-State-Realty-Trust-Announces-Appointment-of-Aaron-Ratner-as-Senior-Vice-President-and-Chief-30636081/

 

I think it's pretty cool to hand the keys to a young gun, but it does seem highly unusual.

 

Is he by chance related to the Forest City Ratners?

 

New York, NY, May 19, 2020 - Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ESRT) (the 'Company'), a real estate investment trust with office and retail properties in Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area, today announced the appointment of Aaron Ratner as Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, effective May 26, 2020. In this newly created role, Mr. Ratner will lead the Company's investment strategies and sourcing of external growth opportunities.

 

Anthony E. Malkin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ESRT said, 'Aaron's appointment follows our comments in our Q1 earnings call. I am confident he is the right person to create opportunities for us in this cycle and those to come, and we welcome him to our team.'

 

'Empire State Realty Trust is a platform poised for accretive growth,' said Mr. Ratner. 'I am honored and motivated by the opportunity to work with ESRT's talented team and to create value for ESRT's shareholders.'

 

Mr. Ratner joins ESRT after nine-years with TPG. He most recently served as a principal on the real estate team, where he developed investment strategies, sourced opportunities, and executed and managed real estate debt and equity investments. He served on the Board of Directors and Finance Committee for AV Homes (NASDAQ: AVHI). Before TPG, he worked in the real estate investment banking group at Eastdil Secured. Mr. Ratner earned a B.B.A in Finance with distinction from Emory University's Goizueta Business School.

 

About Empire State Realty Trust Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ESRT), a leading real estate investment trust (REIT), owns, manages, operates, acquires and repositions office and retail properties in Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area, including the Empire State Building, the world's most famous building. Headquartered in New York, New York, the Company's office and retail portfolio covers 10.1 million rentable square feet, as of March 31, 2020, consisting of 9.4 million rentable square feet in 14 office properties, including nine in Manhattan, three in Fairfield County, Connecticut and two in Westchester County, New York; and approximately 700,000 rentable square feet in the retail portfolio.

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