Coronavirus

[alwaysdrawing]

Listen, there's no reason to be here arguing with a bunch of dinosaurs who can't see the meteor coming.  Keep buying banks at tangible book, and using your 20% off coupons on the market and see what comes.  This isn't a primarily financial problem, and unlike 2008, the solutions will not be primarily financial.

 

I believe this is a huge issue, and in all honesty, I wish people would just prepare by social distancing, use soap and hand sanitizer, and stock up on normal groceries in case of a quarantine.  Take care of your family, make sure they get RX refills if possible, and make plans to check in on older relatives.

 

If you want, buy puts, or move some to cash.  Please please listen about the health issues.  Normal people don't die en masse in normal times, and without people taking this seriously that is likely to happen.

 

 

 

 

 

[krazeenyc]

Listen, there's no reason to be here arguing with a bunch of dinosaurs who can't see the meteor coming.  Keep buying banks at tangible book, and using your 20% off coupons on the market and see what comes.  This isn't a primarily financial problem, and unlike 2008, the solutions will not be primarily financial.

 

I believe this is a huge issue, and in all honesty, I wish people would just prepare by social distancing, use soap and hand sanitizer, and stock up on normal groceries in case of a quarantine.  Take care of your family, make sure they get RX refills if possible, and make plans to check in on older relatives.

 

If you want, buy puts, or move some to cash.  Please please listen about the health issues.  Normal people don't die en masse in normal times, and without people taking this seriously that is likely to happen.

 

Even though the solutions might not be primarily financial.... doesn't mean there won't be solutions. I'm optimistic.

[ERICOPOLY]

The solutions are now going into place.  The senior leadership is no longer claiming this is a Democratic hoax.  Once they realized they won't get reelected if they let everyone get laid off over the next few months, they took action and they're talking bailouts.  That's the financial side.  They can no longer spin this as a hoax and they are now taking action on the human side.  New York just quarantined a huge area.

[Gregmal]

Listen, there's no reason to be here arguing with a bunch of dinosaurs who can't see the meteor coming.  Keep buying banks at tangible book, and using your 20% off coupons on the market and see what comes.  This isn't a primarily financial problem, and unlike 2008, the solutions will not be primarily financial.

 

I believe this is a huge issue, and in all honesty, I wish people would just prepare by social distancing, use soap and hand sanitizer, and stock up on normal groceries in case of a quarantine.  Take care of your family, make sure they get RX refills if possible, and make plans to check in on older relatives.

 

If you want, buy puts, or move some to cash.  Please please listen about the health issues.  Normal people don't die en masse in normal times, and without people taking this seriously that is likely to happen.

 

This is probably a much more reasonable and level headed way of putting it. I agree. At least the second half. There is no reason at all not to be taking precaution given that most of the ways to mitigate this, cost us nothing but a little bit of effort.

[Castanza]

Listen, there's no reason to be here arguing with a bunch of dinosaurs who can't see the meteor coming.  Keep buying banks at tangible book, and using your 20% off coupons on the market and see what comes.  This isn't a primarily financial problem, and unlike 2008, the solutions will not be primarily financial.

 

I believe this is a huge issue, and in all honesty, I wish people would just prepare by social distancing, use soap and hand sanitizer, and stock up on normal groceries in case of a quarantine.  Take care of your family, make sure they get RX refills if possible, and make plans to check in on older relatives.

 

If you want, buy puts, or move some to cash.  Please please listen about the health issues.  Normal people don't die en masse in normal times, and without people taking this seriously that is likely to happen.

 

Where I live there are no confirmed cases. Life has been going on as usual. Costco and Wegmans have not been overly busy and I saw people with *gasp* one pack of toilet paper. Schools are still open. My employer has allowed us to work at home if we want. Bars, breweries and pubs are still packed. As far as I know there have been no reports of unusual amounts deaths.

 

Say tomorrow the CDC rolls in and magically test everyone in the local area. And 30% of those people test positive. What has fundamentally changed about my area?

 

Edit: And I agree with precautions (hand washing etc)

[Liberty]

You're trolling me now?

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I just dislike ageism/sexism/racism and try to call it out when I see it.

 

You should be more tolerant and accepting. Your evolutionary instinct of disliking those things is neither more "right" or "wrong" than those folks who like those things. The folks have just as much insight into the right way to live as anyone else does. Why force (by "calling it out") your arbitrary values on others?

 

I don't believe any of those things. I don't know why you're parodying moral relativism at me.

[Viking]

 

We will only know more in 2 or 3 weeks; until then, everything people say about everything (eventual response, magnitude, economic impact) is simply an uninformed guess. As Mark Twain said: "its not what you know that gets you in trouble, its what you know that ain't so."

 

Two things mobilize all people the world over: health and money. As the health part of the equation rapidly deteriorates in the coming weeks politicians will finally see Jesus. Imagine a Senator or Representative telling their elderly constituents “we could do more but the cost is a little too high. Sorry 15% of you are going to have to die. But the rest of us are better off so i am sure you understand.”

 

How can you have a highly contagious disease that spreads rapidly that wil over load health systems all over world killing millions and after 4 months has been attributable to 4090 deaths?  The first part of that sentence doesnt mesh with the last. Can anyone please recitfy this for me? And no quaranteening isnt doing it, either are standard precautions for reasons I have exhausted discussing before. Testing isnt doing it either, thats bullshit, and if you dont believe me flesh out for me how even a 1% false negative rate or 99% sensitivity would not make high volume testing completely useless. The more you test the more false negatives you get!!!!!

 

I have no dog in this fight, no money to be made, no axe to grind.

 

Orthopa, I think you and many other people are lost in the weeds on this whole issue. i say this will all respect; our mental models are what they are.

 

My focus is on the big picture and what think will happen in the future. Not what i think should happen. Big, big difference.

 

What do all of these governments have in common? China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Iran, italy (i could list many more) etc. they have nothing in common. But wait, yes, there is one issue where they are on the same page: their eventual response in dealing with this virus. There is much to learn here for people and countries; but like my teenage kids, ’the teacher appears when the student is ready, not the other way around’ (to my frustration sometimes).

 

Big picture: The US is not ready, specifically Trump. Watching this thing unfold in the US it reminds me of how an outbreak was likely handled in the medieval ages where you had a despot in charge of things. Mistrust of science (no testing); misinformation; followers loyal to king (above nation), self serving and paranoid leader; situation spiralling out of control (look at bond and stock market the past few weeks). King Donald is firmly in control. His number one priority is reelection. I see no examples in other parts of the world where this approach has lead to a successful approach in dealing with the virus. But Trump might be right; i just don’t think his approach will work. We will know in about a month.

 

Why are all the countries listed above dealing with the virus the same way? Are the politicians in every one of those countries stupid? Are they misinformed? They are 1 to 2 months into the battle with this virus... maybe they know something we do not?

 

Health care is important to people the world over. Getting proper health care is important. People also do not want to die, including those who are old or in the high risk groups.

 

Politicians/leaders are the same the world over. In my Political Science 101 course from 30 years ago the professor asked students what causes revolutions. People answered ‘poverty’. No. ‘Treating people like shit’. No. What causes revolutions is when expectations are not met. Americans, just like every other person in the world, expect the government to look after them when they are sick. BINGO.

 

Someone better tell King Donald... The natives are getting restless...

[LC]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without

 

Update from S Korea:

 

South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.

 

The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed.

 

 

South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours.

 

 

South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with information needed to stay safe, including twice daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.

 

[orthopa]

Testing does not give you a better picture of facts and information unless you test EVERYONE!!! Tell me what you do with your vaccine when covid 19 mutates and its useless. Your aware this happens every year with the flu shot correct?

 

Its too late the stop the spread, its all over world, in every state, in every community. Corona has been in US for months. How come the hospitals are overloaded in the US? I thought this was an exponential parabolic etc.

 

This has only been a few weeks....look at the curves.  This is still exploding and we don't even have accurate test numbers.  Add in an incubation period before people need hospitalization and ICU level care, and you can see what's coming.

 

Just wait two weeks and look at Seattle, SF, NYC.  Then see who has the next clusters....

 

Seasonal flu changes because influenza is cultivated by ducks (which are crucibles for changes in the influenza virus) which live near livestock (pigs) that can transmit the flu to pigs, which are intermediate carriers but can transmit the flu to humans.

 

Coronaviruses are primarily from bats, and bats rarely interact with humans (but sometimes do).  There may be mutations, but as with many pandemic viruses for which vaccines exist, the conditions for significant mutation do not exist the same way as for influenza.  That's not to say that a vaccine is a sure thing, however it's possible (although the development of vaccines is 18-24 months at best).

 

Buying time through social distancing, NPIs, school closures and other measures is the best way to prevent a pandemic from becoming even more massive, and spacing out the spread of cases to keep it within the capacity of hospitals.

 

Why are you assuming the virus was here only with the first positive test. How can you make an assumption when the symptoms mimic the flu and/or patients can be asymptomatic?

[orthopa]

Someone in our town was just diagnosed with the virus. This person is now in induced coma (he is high risk group due to some heart problems).

He got infected after returning from a “security conference in SF” at the end of February.

 

I googled. And this is the conference I found in SF that is in the area of securities:

 

https://www.rsaconference.com/-/media/rsac/usa/2020/files/daily-addendum/addendum_us20_2_28_20.pdf?la=en&hash=EB85A0855094D24B7B3A863BAC96EF5A09EBF87C

 

All those people attending, probably all at risk.

 

Agree, as well as the cab/uber driver that took him too and from the airport, EVERYONE in the airport. The guy who touched his baggage on accident at the carrosel. The guy who touched the elevator button after he did. The guy that touched the escaltor rail after he did. The woman that picked up his scarf when he dropped it leaving the air port. The attendant he bought a magazine from in the airport. EVERYONE on the plane. EVERYONE in the hotel, the person that touched the door knob into the hotel after he did, the cleaning lady who cleaned his room, the waiter that waited on him. The people that sat next time in the restaurant he went to. The woman who he handed a tip to at the bar. The person that sat in the same chair at the airport after his flight left, and everyone at the conference that had the same interactions he did.

 

Ok guys, your turn, of the above who do we test?

 

An employee working at facebook tested positive for coronavirus. I know someone who works very near that person (also at FB) with all the symptoms.. can't get tested. (this is my only personal story).

 

A nurse who treated a coronavirus patient has all the symptoms! Can't get a test -- denied by the CDC -- told... if you took the proper precautions you won't need it!

 

This tells me, the US is not prepared.

 

Please answer my question that I pose as well as feasibility, expected outcome, source of the test patients, etc.

[Viking]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without

 

Update from S Korea:

 

South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.

 

The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed.

 

 

South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours.

 

 

South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with information needed to stay safe, including twice daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.

 

Thank you for posting... so perhaps, with effort, the virus can be contained. Great news!

[orthopa]

Listen, there's no reason to be here arguing with a bunch of dinosaurs who can't see the meteor coming.  Keep buying banks at tangible book, and using your 20% off coupons on the market and see what comes.  This isn't a primarily financial problem, and unlike 2008, the solutions will not be primarily financial.

 

I believe this is a huge issue, and in all honesty, I wish people would just prepare by social distancing, use soap and hand sanitizer, and stock up on normal groceries in case of a quarantine.  Take care of your family, make sure they get RX refills if possible, and make plans to check in on older relatives.

 

If you want, buy puts, or move some to cash.  Please please listen about the health issues.  Normal people don't die en masse in normal times, and without people taking this seriously that is likely to happen.

 

I realize this is an investment website but that wasnt my question. Your advocating for more testing. You feel strongly about this. What I presented has been happening every day for weeks. Who do we test? Whats your plan?

[perulv]

Some facts and observations (hopefully presented without much opinion) from Norway (population 5mill), might be of interest to someone, at least a data-point.

 

The national institute for health will now put out daily reports, here is the one for today, trough Google Translate: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fhi.no%2Fcontentassets%2Fca5914bd0aa14e15a17f8a7d48fa306a%2Fvedlegg%2Fdagsrapporter%2F2020-03-10_dagsrapport-covid19.pdf (seems Google Translate is missing the graphs, see original versjon here https://www.fhi.no/contentassets/ca5914bd0aa14e15a17f8a7d48fa306a/vedlegg/dagsrapporter/2020-03-10_dagsrapport-covid19.pdf)

 

Summary (from https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2020/status-koronavirus-tirsdag-10.-mars-2020/):

The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has been notified of a further 85 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the last 24 hours, making a total of 277.

 

The majority are either infected abroad or are close contacts to these cases. A total of 81 cases were infected in Norway. 73 of the cases are known to be close contacts of a positive COVID-19 case. For 8 of the cases infected in Norway, the source is not yet clarified. 193 cases were infected abroad and for 3 the place of infection is not yet clarified.

(The PDF adds that 4461 persons are tested so far)

 

No deaths yet, some seriously ill and hospitalized in the last days. We have mostly been importing our cases from Italy, but the health officials say we are now probably moving into the "next phase" with cases that cannot be traced is starting to pop up. New rules from today is banning gatherings with more than 500 people (the actual rules are a bit more detailed, exceptions exist etc), typically impacting concerts, sports-events conferences etc.

 

The main idea is "flattening the curve".

[mcliu]

It's amazing how you can read a couple of articles, look at a few graphs and suddenly become better informed than medical experts with decades of experience.

I must suck at reading.

[Jurgis]

It's amazing how you can read a couple of articles, look at a few graphs and suddenly become better informed than medical experts with decades of experience.

I must suck at reading.

 

Which medical expert?

 

The one who's flooding this thread with his opinions?

Or the ones that work on the disease in question and publish their opinions in medical literature/sites?

[orthopa]

 

We will only know more in 2 or 3 weeks; until then, everything people say about everything (eventual response, magnitude, economic impact) is simply an uninformed guess. As Mark Twain said: "its not what you know that gets you in trouble, its what you know that ain't so."

 

Two things mobilize all people the world over: health and money. As the health part of the equation rapidly deteriorates in the coming weeks politicians will finally see Jesus. Imagine a Senator or Representative telling their elderly constituents “we could do more but the cost is a little too high. Sorry 15% of you are going to have to die. But the rest of us are better off so i am sure you understand.”

 

How can you have a highly contagious disease that spreads rapidly that wil over load health systems all over world killing millions and after 4 months has been attributable to 4090 deaths?  The first part of that sentence doesnt mesh with the last. Can anyone please recitfy this for me? And no quaranteening isnt doing it, either are standard precautions for reasons I have exhausted discussing before. Testing isnt doing it either, thats bullshit, and if you dont believe me flesh out for me how even a 1% false negative rate or 99% sensitivity would not make high volume testing completely useless. The more you test the more false negatives you get!!!!!

 

I have no dog in this fight, no money to be made, no axe to grind.

 

Orthopa, I think you and many other people are lost in the weeds on this whole issue. i say this will all respect; our mental models are what they are.

 

My focus is on the big picture and what think will happen in the future. Not what i think should happen. Big, big difference.

 

What do all of these governments have in common? China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, Iran, italy (i could list many more) etc. they have nothing in common. But wait, yes, there is one issue where they are on the same page: their eventual response in dealing with this virus. There is much to learn here for people and countries; but like my teenage kids, ’the teacher appears when the student is ready, not the other way around’ (to my frustration sometimes).

 

Big picture: The US is not ready, specifically Trump. Watching this thing unfold in the US it reminds me of how an outbreak was likely handled in the medieval ages where you had a despot in charge of things. Mistrust of science (no testing); misinformation; followers loyal to king (above nation), self serving and paranoid leader; situation spiralling out of control (look at bond and stock market the past few weeks). King Donald is firmly in control. His number one priority is reelection. I see no examples in other parts of the world where this approach has lead to a successful approach in dealing with the virus. But Trump might be right; i just don’t think his approach will work. We will know in about a month.

 

Why are all the countries listed above dealing with the virus the same way? Are the politicians in every one of those countries stupid? Are they misinformed? They are 1 to 2 months into the battle with this virus... maybe they know something we do not?

 

Health care is important to people the world over. Getting proper health care is important. People also do not want to die, including those who are old or in the high risk groups.

 

Politicians/leaders are the same the world over. In my Political Science 101 course from 30 years ago the professor asked students what causes revolutions. People answered ‘poverty’. No. ‘Treating people like shit’. No. What causes revolutions is when expectations are not met. Americans, just like every other person in the world, expect the government to look after them when they are sick. BINGO.

 

Someone better tell King Donald... The natives are getting restless...

 

Im not getting into the weeds, or making it political. Many have strong opinions/outlooks. I have presented some rational real life situations and questions, but no answers.

 

Please again how does a virus that has been spreading since early December, that is highly contagious, spreads easily, has a 1% kill rate, is present all over the world, and in populations now numbering what? 4,5,6 Billion people only kill 4,262 people?  What gives?

 

Secondly reading my scenario of contact with persons/spread, and the fact that this virus is essentially all over the world. We are talking, billions, and billions, and billions of people here. Why is the death rate only 4262 people. Surely cases are in the millions.  What is taking so long?

[alwaysdrawing]

I realize this is an investment website but that wasnt my question. Your advocating for more testing. You feel strongly about this. What I presented has been happening every day for weeks. Who do we test? Whats your plan?

 

How about people with symptoms who doctors want to test and haven't been able to?  Then the people they have interacted with?

 

Look at the news, look at Twitter, look at the changes in the CDC guidelines.  Doctors cannot get symptomatic cases tested. 

 

Meanwhile, South Korea has been a model of testing, with contact tracing, 100,000+ tests, mobile/drive through testing,etc. and are seeing results already!  The US may already be beyond contact tracing in many locations, due to failures in implementing testing.

 

I've consulted with my friends who are MDs, PhDs.  They are already scared of being overwhelmed by shortages in PPE and lack of ICU beds, and every one of them says we must test patients who are symptomatic.  How is that controversial??

 

 

Please again how does a virus that has been spreading since early December, that is highly contagious, spreads easily, has a 1% kill rate, is present all over the world, and in populations now numbering what? 4,5,6 Billion people only kill 4,262 people?  What gives?

 

Secondly reading my scenario of contact with persons/spread, and the fact that this virus is essentially all over the world. We are talking, billions, and billions, and billions of people here. Why is the death rate only 4262 people. Surely cases are in the millions.  What is taking so long?

 

Wait, and the coming weeks/months will reveal.

[perulv]

No deaths yet, some seriously ill and hospitalized in the last days. We have mostly been importing our cases from Italy, but the health officials say we are now probably moving into the "next phase" with cases that cannot be traced is starting to pop up. New rules from today is banning gatherings with more than 500 people (the actual rules are a bit more detailed, exceptions exist etc), typically impacting concerts, sports-events conferences etc.

 

The main idea is "flattening the curve".

 

My personal opinion: I really have no idea / strong opinion right now if the measures taken in Norway are too weak or too strong, too early (probably not) or too late. But given that the only measures that exists are variations of separation of people and hand-washing, there is probably not a second chance if you are too late. To _flatten the curve_ that is. Which makes obvious sense, not overwhelming the hospitals like is happening  in Italy. It also seems pretty obvious that this (combined with the oil-price-war) will have great economical consequences, imho not discounted in the market yet.

 

My personal actions have been to move some of my portfolio/savings to cash last week, Tell my kids and myself to hands and use hand-sanitizer, and drop a planned company-trip abroad (for socializing) next week. No, the trip would not kill us, but with the pace of change that is happening now, I weigh the potential downside (stuck/isolated at airport/hotel/country/at-home-when-back, generally contributing to more movement of people and viruses) higher than the potential upside.

[orthopa]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3074469/coronavirus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without

 

Update from S Korea:

 

South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran.

 

The steady decrease in cases has been attributed to a variety of factors, including mass testing, improved public communications and the use of technology. Extensive testing of members of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which was linked to more than 60 per cent of the country’s cases, has been completed.

 

 

South Korea has also come up with creative measures, including about 50 drive-through testing stations across the country, where it takes only 10 minutes to go through the whole procedure. Test results are available within hours.

 

 

South Korea has been proactive in providing its citizens with information needed to stay safe, including twice daily media briefings and emergency alerts sent by mobile phone to those living or working in districts where new cases have been confirmed. Details about the travel histories of confirmed patients are also available on municipal websites, sometimes with breakdowns of a patient’s residence or employer, which can make them identifiable individually, leading to concerns about privacy.

 

Thank you for posting... so perhaps, with effort, the virus can be contained. Great news!

 

The virus will not be contained until every single human on earth gets it, we develop a genetic resistance to it over time by natural selection, it stops/no longer mutates and a vaccine is developed one an individual or population becomes so remote that they have no human contact. ie outer space, deep amazon etc.

 

Your confusing covid19 with small pox, polio etc.

 

As soon as an infected person goes into S. Korea after the containment/quarentine they will infect all of those who did not develop immunity or never had the virus.

[orthopa]

It's amazing how you can read a couple of articles, look at a few graphs and suddenly become better informed than medical experts with decades of experience.

I must suck at reading.

 

Which medical expert?

 

The one who's flooding this thread with his opinions?

Or the ones that work on the disease in question and publish their opinions in medical literature/sites?

 

You never let the cat get your tongue before, where do you stand?

[orthopa]

I realize this is an investment website but that wasnt my question. Your advocating for more testing. You feel strongly about this. What I presented has been happening every day for weeks. Who do we test? Whats your plan?

 

How about people with symptoms who doctors want to test and haven't been able to?  Then the people they have interacted with?

 

Look at the news, look at Twitter, look at the changes in the CDC guidelines.  Doctors cannot get symptomatic cases tested. 

 

Meanwhile, South Korea has been a model of testing, with contact tracing, 100,000+ tests, mobile/drive through testing,etc. and are seeing results already!  The US may already be beyond contact tracing in many locations, due to failures in implementing testing.

 

I've consulted with my friends who are MDs, PhDs.  They are already scared of being overwhelmed by shortages in PPE and lack of ICU beds, and every one of them says we must test patients who are symptomatic.  How is that controversial??

 

 

Please again how does a virus that has been spreading since early December, that is highly contagious, spreads easily, has a 1% kill rate, is present all over the world, and in populations now numbering what? 4,5,6 Billion people only kill 4,262 people?  What gives?

 

Secondly reading my scenario of contact with persons/spread, and the fact that this virus is essentially all over the world. We are talking, billions, and billions, and billions of people here. Why is the death rate only 4262 people. Surely cases are in the millions.  What is taking so long?

 

Wait, and the coming weeks/months will reveal.

 

Please, and Im not trying to be obtuse here. You understand that in S. Korea everyone who tests negative, unless they have a genetic predisposition and can never get it(happens but unusual), can get it in say 1 month when an individual who is asymptomatic goes to S. Korea and sneezes on someone who has never had the virus. You understand this basic fact right? The virus does not go away when new cases trend down. The only sustainable way that new cases trend down is that there is no virgin host for the virus to infect!!!!!

 

Has S. Korea locked down the country?

[alwaysdrawing]

Now we also face an immediate crisis. In the past week, Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise.

 

There are two reasons that Covid-19 is such a threat. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems. The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1%; this rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%).2

-Bill Gates, New England Journal of Medicine

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762

 

 

 

The numbers of "new" cases reported daily in the US are not new. They are newly discovered as we start to test more. Testing is still completely inadequate, and actual case numbers are much larger than the numbers we're hearing because most cases never get tested.

-Marc Lipsitch (Harvard Epidemiologist)

 

Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus "will ultimately not be containable" and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity

 

It's impossible to avoid an epidemic here in the U.S. We do have the potential to limit the scope of the epidemic, but we need to be taking more aggressive steps.

 

I think it would be smart for the campaigns and political leaders to lead by example and start to curtail large gatherings.

-Former FDA Chief Scott Gottlieb, MD

 

Threads from Dr. Muge Cevik:

 

Threads from Caitlin Rivers, PhD:

 

Threads from Italian doctors on twitter:

 

Italy is already triaging which people get access to ventilators!  Old people likely to die don't get them.

 

Benefit of South Korean interventions (contact tracing, widespread testing, drive through testing, NPIs, social distancing):

 

Why isn't Covid19 taking off outside China?  Needs time:

 

Two weeks ago Italy had 600 confirmed cases.  Total it's over 10,000, the hospitals are overwhelmed and the entire country has been locked down.

 

Current *confirmed* cases in the US:  808

 

Log scale confirmed cases:

 

Hopkins Case Tracker:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

[mcliu]

It's amazing how you can read a couple of articles, look at a few graphs and suddenly become better informed than medical experts with decades of experience.

I must suck at reading.

 

Which medical expert?

 

The one who's flooding this thread with his opinions?

Or the ones that work on the disease in question and publish their opinions in medical literature/sites?

 

I meant experts in the CDC and other organizations that are running this operation.

I just question whether we have the expertise to criticize the US response at this time.

I do think that those that have medical expertise like orthopa are in a better position to judge the situation than most of us.

 

But then again, I read from another thread that we're facing an "extinction" level threat, so maybe it's time to panic.  :o

[Guest cherzeca]

I would love to see this headline on cnn:  x cases of Covid-19, y deaths.  during this period, 100x cases of flu, 100y deaths.

 

would that make you feel better about our public health or worse?

[Read the Footnotes]

 

Please, and Im not trying to be obtuse here. You understand that in S. Korea everyone who tests negative, unless they have a genetic predisposition and can never get it(happens but unusual), can get it in say 1 month when an individual who is asymptomatic goes to S. Korea and sneezes on someone who has never had the virus. You understand this basic fact right? The virus does not go away when new cases trend down. The only sustainable way that new cases trend down is that there is no virgin host for the virus to infect!!!!!

 

Has S. Korea locked down the country?

 

Thank you for stopping by and sharing some ideas again. I would assume it's a busy and stressful time to be on the front lines even if you are significantly impacted at the moment. Even the anticipation of what might happen would unnerve me a bit based on first hand reports from Italy.

 

I think Orthopa is making a valid point here.

 

We need to realize that we in the first world are going to handle this very well compared to what must be happening or will happen in some less developed countries. Those countries with the least resources and worst leadership will become the disease reservoir in the future and transmission from the third world to the first world will be so easy compared to when the reservoir was zoonotic and had to get lucky to make the leap to humans.

 

Even if we did not need to assume that less developed nations will become the long-term disease reservoir, all the developed nations are progressing on their own different containment timelines and even if they are successful in the short run they are interconnected and they all will be playing "whack a mole" for some time as they pass it back and forth among themselves. Containment and mitigation efforts will not end this year, though we will likely get much better at the game with time.

 

Another couple of points that no one has mentioned that are relevant here. Even if most will survive, if too many people get sick at once, there is a greater risk of societal collapse, so that is another reason to flatten the curve. The military will take extreme measures to ensure readiness. US banking and tradings systems have been making preparations for some time now. The US military and the intelligence services have said publicly that they are closely monitoring the situation abroad in case of disruptions. Also, the risk of coups goes up around the world, which is what most dictators worry about more than invasion. So governments have many motivations to flatten the curve that go well beyond any benevolence to their populace, I have only mentioned a few.