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On top of the future conversion he could get at $6 a piece from the recent debt deal, Prem loaded up on BB on Sept. 1st to increase his stake:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prem-watsa-continues-bet-blackberry-165153198.html

 

It means something? .... I think BB's time is finally coming.

 

Thougts?

 

 

My view is that the linked article is written by a poorly programmed AI.

It randomly attached facts to make a business article. 

 

The AI is a far cry from the Skynet that was suppose to take over the world by now.

 

The actual serious question is: did he buy more BB as stated in the article or not?

Anyone knows? Maybe we ask the AI ;)

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Isnt the concern that the equity investments have been poor choices?

 

If increasing the float= giving more money to a team not managing the equity investments well then isn't it better to repurchase the shares with the additional float than than giving the team more money to buy equities?

 

Sorry to beat this topic to death, I just cant wrap my head around being aggressive with the repurchses here at these levels. If the argument is that its better to increase the float, arent peoples concerns here that the float is going to poor equity choices so isnt' it better to retire shares then have them use the float to buy what they think are good deals?

 

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Re: Fairfax 2020

« Reply #545 on: August 18, 2020, 01:47:12 PM »

Quote

Quote from: Pedro on August 18, 2020, 12:11:37 PM

This could use a tender offer or some sort of action to get this back to BV.  0.71X BV seems like something that should be taken advantage of via tendering or big buybacks.

 

Wouldn't Tempteton do that?

 

 

Prem's decision is to grow the insurance companies instead. If they can do so profitably, the additional float is worth more in the long-term than a one-time repurchase would be. The gains from float are compounded returns with attractive economics and the flexibility to do buybacks later, if still attractive, where the gain from the buyback is a one-off return with no flexibility to increase economic return of the company beyond that.

 

Also, the increased profitability could be the catalyst to rerate the share where a buyback isn't guaranteed to cause any re-rating. The "guaranteed" return is just the increase in BV/share which the market may, or may not, take notice of.

 

I'm ok with the limited buyback approach if they can capitalize on a hardening insurance market and expand float by 30-50% instead - I just feel it was disingenuous of them to use Templeton as the comparison if they're not going to act at the scale that would imply.

 

 

 

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Isnt the concern that the equity investments have been poor choices?

 

If increasing the float= giving more money to a team not managing the equity investments well then isn't it better to repurchase the shares with the additional float than than giving the team more money to buy equities?

 

Sorry to beat this topic to death, I just cant wrap my head around being aggressive with the repurchses here at these levels. If the argument is that its better to increase the float, arent peoples concerns here that the float is going to poor equity choices so isnt' it better to retire shares then have them use the float to buy what they think are good deals?

 

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Fairfax 2020

« Reply #545 on: August 18, 2020, 01:47:12 PM »

Quote

Quote from: Pedro on August 18, 2020, 12:11:37 PM

This could use a tender offer or some sort of action to get this back to BV.  0.71X BV seems like something that should be taken advantage of via tendering or big buybacks.

 

Wouldn't Tempteton do that?

 

 

Prem's decision is to grow the insurance companies instead. If they can do so profitably, the additional float is worth more in the long-term than a one-time repurchase would be. The gains from float are compounded returns with attractive economics and the flexibility to do buybacks later, if still attractive, where the gain from the buyback is a one-off return with no flexibility to increase economic return of the company beyond that.

 

Also, the increased profitability could be the catalyst to rerate the share where a buyback isn't guaranteed to cause any re-rating. The "guaranteed" return is just the increase in BV/share which the market may, or may not, take notice of.

 

I'm ok with the limited buyback approach if they can capitalize on a hardening insurance market and expand float by 30-50% instead - I just feel it was disingenuous of them to use Templeton as the comparison if they're not going to act at the scale that would imply.

 

 

 

If FFH had unlimited capital, you'd definitely engage in an aggressive buyback when shares are trading at such a significant discount to BV.  But, FFH does not have unlimited capital, so you need to think about the possible alternate uses for it.  Suppose you had $1m of extra capital sitting at Crum and Forster.  You have a couple of options:

 

1) Dividend the money to FFH holdco, then repurchase FFH shares:  Continuing FFH shareholders get an immediate, one-time benefit equal to the prevailing discount to intrinsic value.  So, let us suppose that FFH shares are currently 40% undervalued, then you'd get an immediate $400k benefit to continuing shareholders.

 

2) Expand C&F's book: Assuming that there's no shortage of business available, with $1m of "extra unused capital", C&F could easily write $1.5m of premiums.  If you believe that C&F can write a 95 CR, that would be $75k of underwriting profit, and if you believe that Hamblin-Watsa can get a 2% investment return on the float that would be another $30k of investment return, for a total return of $105k on your $1m of extra capital in 2020.  If you believe that this hard market will prevail until the end of 2022, then you'd also get that $105k in both of 2021 and 2022 when you renew the insurance policies and reinvest your float.

 

 

In my example, one alternative is quantitatively better and carries less risk, but both alternatives are very economically attractive.  If you believe that the accident year CRs are more like 90 instead of 95, it's a no-brainer to keep capital in your insurance subs during this hard market rather than conducting the buyback.  On the other hand, if you are more pessimistic and believe that the accident year CR is more like 98, then FFH is wasting its time by trying to expand its book.

 

I would say that it's not entirely clear which alternative is better, but I don't mind Prem's strategy of retaining capital in the subs because it is very likely to work out reasonably well for shareholders.

 

 

SJ

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Isnt the concern that the equity investments have been poor choices?

 

If increasing the float= giving more money to a team not managing the equity investments well then isn't it better to repurchase the shares with the additional float than than giving the team more money to buy equities?

 

Sorry to beat this topic to death, I just cant wrap my head around being aggressive with the repurchses here at these levels. If the argument is that its better to increase the float, arent peoples concerns here that the float is going to poor equity choices so isnt' it better to retire shares then have them use the float to buy what they think are good deals?

 

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Fairfax 2020

« Reply #545 on: August 18, 2020, 01:47:12 PM »

Quote

Quote from: Pedro on August 18, 2020, 12:11:37 PM

This could use a tender offer or some sort of action to get this back to BV.  0.71X BV seems like something that should be taken advantage of via tendering or big buybacks.

 

Wouldn't Tempteton do that?

 

 

Prem's decision is to grow the insurance companies instead. If they can do so profitably, the additional float is worth more in the long-term than a one-time repurchase would be. The gains from float are compounded returns with attractive economics and the flexibility to do buybacks later, if still attractive, where the gain from the buyback is a one-off return with no flexibility to increase economic return of the company beyond that.

 

Also, the increased profitability could be the catalyst to rerate the share where a buyback isn't guaranteed to cause any re-rating. The "guaranteed" return is just the increase in BV/share which the market may, or may not, take notice of.

 

I'm ok with the limited buyback approach if they can capitalize on a hardening insurance market and expand float by 30-50% instead - I just feel it was disingenuous of them to use Templeton as the comparison if they're not going to act at the scale that would imply.

 

Most float won't go to equity investments. It'll go to fixed income which they've proven quite adept at.

 

Secondly, the equities have been a mixed bag. Sure there have been things like Blackberry which haven't been great. And the macro calls/hedges.

 

But then they've also had the CDS and ICICI investment that we're home runs. Overall, growing the float will likely more beneficial long-term than share repurchases IF equity and fixed income investments are just average.

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Tomorrow I think the courts in the UK are supposed to come down with a ruling on contract language and Covid which will impact Brit.

 

Lots of near term headwinds for the insurance industry:

- Covid

- recession

- active hurricane season

- West Coast forest fires

- very low bond yields

- reserve releases shrinking

- reinsurance pricing starting to harden

 

I like Fairfax at current prices. But the news flow into Q3 results will likely be pretty bad. The good news is the industry is in hard market which started last year could last for some time. The insurance side of Fairfax has been holding up reasonably well which is encouraging.

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Now that the Blackberry deal has closed is it not a solid win for FFH shareholders? The key, of course, is how Blackberry performs moving forward. The timing is interesting (why not wait until November)?

 

Fairfax has reduced its exposure to Blackberry significantly ($330,000 Debenture versus $500,000) but is positioned to own 16.5 versus 15.7% of shares outstanding.

 

I am surprised Blackberry has not been taken out by a larger player given all the hype we are seeing in their business segments. Fairfax is now positioned very well should this happen. On the Q2 call Prem talked about continuing to monetize assets... this one looks like a strong candidate to me. Checks off lots of boxes. Sell asset at premium valuation. Lock in nice profit (where it is currently carried on the books). Raise significant amount of cash insurance subs can use to write more business. Significantly de-risk equity and total investment portfolio. Close the book on the whole RIM/Blackberry drama.

 

New deal: “Fairfax now beneficially owns, and exercises control or direction over, the Purchased Debentures, representing 55,000,000 Common Shares assuming full conversion. Together with Common Shares already owned by Fairfax and its subsidiaries and assuming full conversion of the Purchased Debentures, Fairfax would beneficially own 101,724,700 Common Shares representing, assuming all other Debentures are converted, approximately 16.5% of the total Common Shares outstanding“

 

Old deal: “Together with Common Shares already owned by Fairfax and its subsidiaries and assuming full conversion of the Fairfax Redeemed Debentures, Fairfax would have beneficially owned 96,724,700 Common Shares representing, assuming all other Redeemed Debentures were converted, approximately 15.7% of the total Common Shares outstanding.”

 

—————————-

Fairfax Announces Acquisition of 1.75% Convertible Debentures of BlackBerry Limited After Redemption of Existing Convertible Debentures

 

TORONTO, Sept. 02, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“Fairfax”) (TSX:FFH and FFH.U) announces that it has acquired, through its subsidiaries, ownership and control of $330,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 1.75% unsecured subordinated convertible debentures maturing on November  13,  2023 (the “Debentures”) of BlackBerry Limited (“BlackBerry”) representing  approximately  90%  of  BlackBerry’s  private  placement (the “Private Placement”) of an aggregate principal amount of $365,000,000 of Debentures that closed today.  The Debentures are convertible at the option of the holder into common shares of BlackBerry (“Common Shares”) at a price of $6.00 per Common Share and, therefore, the Debentures purchased by Fairfax’s subsidiaries (the “Purchased Debentures”) are convertible into 55,000,000 Common Shares.

 

Prior to the redemption thereof by BlackBerry (the “Redemption”), which redemption was completed prior to the Private Placement, Fairfax held, through its subsidiaries, ownership of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 3.75% unsecured subordinated convertible debentures (the “Redeemed Debentures”) of BlackBerry maturing November 13, 2020.  The Redeemed Debentures were convertible at the option of the holder into Common Shares at a price of $10.00 per Common Share and, therefore, the Redeemed Debentures held by Fairfax’s subsidiaries (the “Fairfax Redeemed Debentures”) were convertible into 50,000,000 Common Shares.

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/Fairfax-Announces-Acquisition-of-1.75-Convertible-Debentures-of-BlackBerry-Limited-After-Redemption-of-Existing-Convertible-Debentures/default.aspx

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Welcome back to FFH Viking,

 

On Blackberry, I think a deeper FFH investment would be akin like watering your weeds. If someone told me this 3 years ago, I would say yes let’s give Chen time. But now BB already had enough time to build a viable business post-h/w and it has not shown much progress.

 

I am no expert in cyber security but just seeing crowdstrike getting so much traction and BB none, tells me something. I am ok to their position sizing as is.

 

I hope I am wrong.

 

 

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Welcome back to FFH Viking,

 

On Blackberry, I think a deeper FFH investment would be akin like watering your weeds. If someone told me this 3 years ago, I would say yes let’s give Chen time. But now BB already had enough time to build a viable business post-h/w and it has not shown much progress.

 

I am no expert in cyber security but just seeing crowdstrike getting so much traction and BB none, tells me something. I am ok to their position sizing as is.

 

I hope I am wrong.

 

Xerxes, I am with you... I do not want to see Fairfax growing its exposure to Blackberry (over what they had in the past). So the fact they have shrunk this exposure by US $170 million is a win of sorts. There is the potential for a solid win for Fairfax IF Blackberry is sold. 

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Tomorrow I think the courts in the UK are supposed to come down with a ruling on contract language and Covid which will impact Brit.

 

Lots of near term headwinds for the insurance industry:

- Covid

- recession

- active hurricane season

- West Coast forest fires

- very low bond yields

- reserve releases shrinking

- reinsurance pricing starting to harden

 

I like Fairfax at current prices. But the news flow into Q3 results will likely be pretty bad. The good news is the industry is in hard market which started last year could last for some time. The insurance side of Fairfax has been holding up reasonably well which is encouraging.

 

UK website for the ruling,  due to be handed down at 10:30am on Tuesday 15 September 2020

 

https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/business-interruption-insurance#latest-updates

 

cheers

nwoodman

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Welcome back to FFH Viking,

 

On Blackberry, I think a deeper FFH investment would be akin like watering your weeds. If someone told me this 3 years ago, I would say yes let’s give Chen time. But now BB already had enough time to build a viable business post-h/w and it has not shown much progress.

 

I am no expert in cyber security but just seeing crowdstrike getting so much traction and BB none, tells me something. I am ok to their position sizing as is.

 

I hope I am wrong.

 

Do you know why BB have failed to gain traction in security?

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Tomorrow I think the courts in the UK are supposed to come down with a ruling on contract language and Covid which will impact Brit.

 

Lots of near term headwinds for the insurance industry:

- Covid

- recession

- active hurricane season

- West Coast forest fires

- very low bond yields

- reserve releases shrinking

- reinsurance pricing starting to harden

 

I like Fairfax at current prices. But the news flow into Q3 results will likely be pretty bad. The good news is the industry is in hard market which started last year could last for some time. The insurance side of Fairfax has been holding up reasonably well which is encouraging.

 

UK website for the ruling,  due to be handed down at 10:30am on Tuesday 15 September 2020

 

https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/business-interruption-insurance#latest-updates

 

cheers

nwoodman

 

The Court found in favour of the arguments advanced for policyholders by the FCA on the majority of the key issues.

 

Christopher Woolard, Interim Chief Executive of the FCA, commented:

 

‘We brought the test case in order to resolve the lack of clarity and certainty that existed for many policyholders making business interruption claims and the wider market.  We are pleased that the Court has substantially found in favour of the arguments we presented on the majority of the key issues. Today’s judgment is a significant step in resolving the uncertainty being faced by policyholders. We are grateful to the court for delivering the judgment quickly and the speed with which it was reached reflects well on all parties.

 

‘Coronavirus is causing substantial loss and distress to businesses and many are under immense financial strain to stay afloat. Our aim throughout this court action has been to get clarity for as wide a range of parties as possible, as quickly as possible and today’s judgment removes a large number of those roadblocks to successful claims, as well as clarifying those that may not be successful.

 

‘Insurers should reflect on the clarity provided here and, irrespective of any possible appeals, consider the steps they can take now to progress claims of the type that the judgment says should be paid.  They should also communicate directly and quickly with policyholders who have made claims affected by the judgment to explain next steps.

 

‘If any parties do appeal the judgment, we would expect that to be done in as rapid a manner as possible in line with the agreement that we made with insurers at the start of this process. As we have recognised from the start of this case, thousands of small firms and potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs are relying on this.’

 

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Welcome back to FFH Viking,

 

On Blackberry, I think a deeper FFH investment would be akin like watering your weeds. If someone told me this 3 years ago, I would say yes let’s give Chen time. But now BB already had enough time to build a viable business post-h/w and it has not shown much progress.

 

I am no expert in cyber security but just seeing crowdstrike getting so much traction and BB none, tells me something. I am ok to their position sizing as is.

 

I hope I am wrong.

 

Do you know why BB have failed to gain traction in security?

 

Hi Petec,

I don't have background in cybersecurity but do listen to BB conference calls and the space.

 

Last year this time, BB shares plunged some 20% or so. That was on the back on the news that BB has to spend investing in its sales force for the next two quarters, b/c their then-current sales force were what they called "harvesters" and since they bought Cylance they needed "hunters". Ok fine, we need hunters.

 

Prior to that the narrative was that their purchase of Cylance was a coup, since similar names were trading at large multiples. So that there was a value-in-value sum of the parts Watsasim kind of thing, and we needed to be patient. Ok great, I am patient.

 

Then Covid-19 happened and their exposure to auto-sector took a beating. Ok fine shit happens but we still need hunters and i still need to remain patient.

 

But then I was expecting that work-from-home environment would create a tailwind for its cyber-security. Was hoping Cylance would become for BB, what the Cash-App turned out to be for Square. Square's business was hit badly due to their customer segment during the shutdown, but the growth of digital payment app far exceeded their other lagging businesses. Ok fine, perhaps payment space is more prolific than cybersecurity. What do i know, i am an aerospace guy.

 

But then let's compare to its peers during the Covid era. Cylance has (i think) a run rate of $200 million, growing really fast and contributes say a fifth of Blackberry total. For context, few year ago, Blackberry for the first time exceeded $500 million in revenue in software and services and is very close to get to $800-900 million in sales for the year I think. So, it is a big chunk of its future growth bought at $1.4 billion. But compared that to Crowdstrike that is a $30 billion business and it IPO in June 2019. Nearly doubled on the back of revenue growth north of 80%. (source: Google finance); most recent quarter nearly $200 million. So couple hundred millions shy of a $billion in sales.

 

https://marketrealist.com/2019/07/why-blackberrys-cylance-acquisition-is-key-for-revenue-growth/

 

I dont have a problem with a not moving stock price if the underling is improving as i know that the share are just getting cheaper in relative terms, but i question why its fundamental are not growing with a lifting tide that seems to be lifting Crowdstrike just fine.

 

I did sell half of my BB shares that I bought at $4.5-$6 range few months ago. And start building a position in InterActive Corp. Still have the other half to dispose of that has a cost around $9-$10 CAD. While I trimmed on BB, I did double my FFH position since March, let's say I like to have the exposure more through FFH and its convertibles.

 

Looks like earning call is on Sept 24:

 

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Tomorrow I think the courts in the UK are supposed to come down with a ruling on contract language and Covid which will impact Brit.

 

Lots of near term headwinds for the insurance industry:

- Covid

- recession

- active hurricane season

- West Coast forest fires

- very low bond yields

- reserve releases shrinking

- reinsurance pricing starting to harden

 

I like Fairfax at current prices. But the news flow into Q3 results will likely be pretty bad. The good news is the industry is in hard market which started last year could last for some time. The insurance side of Fairfax has been holding up reasonably well which is encouraging.

 

UK website for the ruling,  due to be handed down at 10:30am on Tuesday 15 September 2020

 

https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/business-interruption-insurance#latest-updates

 

cheers

nwoodman

 

The Court found in favour of the arguments advanced for policyholders by the FCA on the majority of the key issues.

 

Christopher Woolard, Interim Chief Executive of the FCA, commented:

 

‘We brought the test case in order to resolve the lack of clarity and certainty that existed for many policyholders making business interruption claims and the wider market.  We are pleased that the Court has substantially found in favour of the arguments we presented on the majority of the key issues. Today’s judgment is a significant step in resolving the uncertainty being faced by policyholders. We are grateful to the court for delivering the judgment quickly and the speed with which it was reached reflects well on all parties.

 

‘Coronavirus is causing substantial loss and distress to businesses and many are under immense financial strain to stay afloat. Our aim throughout this court action has been to get clarity for as wide a range of parties as possible, as quickly as possible and today’s judgment removes a large number of those roadblocks to successful claims, as well as clarifying those that may not be successful.

 

‘Insurers should reflect on the clarity provided here and, irrespective of any possible appeals, consider the steps they can take now to progress claims of the type that the judgment says should be paid.  They should also communicate directly and quickly with policyholders who have made claims affected by the judgment to explain next steps.

 

‘If any parties do appeal the judgment, we would expect that to be done in as rapid a manner as possible in line with the agreement that we made with insurers at the start of this process. As we have recognised from the start of this case, thousands of small firms and potentially hundreds of thousands of jobs are relying on this.’

 

Thanks for posting :-) Largely as expected i think. We will find out more when companies report Q3 results. But looks like UK payouts will be large.

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I updated my tracking document for Fairfax publicly traded equity investments. It is not complete but I think covers the largest holdings. So far in Q3 FFH looks to be up about $425 million. Of this total, $50 million is for mark to market equities, $50 million is for Atlas warrants and $375 million is for Investment in Associates ($200 million of this is Atlas).

 

Bottom line is market prices of equity investments have continued to improve in the 3rd quarter. The $1 billion deficit for Investment in Associates (fair value versus book value) should continue to shrink in Q3. 

 

Top 7 individual holdings:

1.) Atlas =      $885 million (outstanding warrants would increase share count from 90 to 115 million)

2.) Eurobank = $537

3.) Commercial International Bank (CIB) = $334

4.) Quess =      $295

5.) Recipe =    $223

6.) Blackberry = $221 (outstanding warrants would increase share count from 46.7 to 101.7 million)

7.) Kennedy Wilson = $209

 

Fairfax India =  $394 million (Fairfax owns 33.7%)

- see tab 2 in the document below for a summary of Fairfax India individual holdings.

 

Digit is another holding to keep an eye on. Not currently publicly traded but valued at around $400 million I think.

 

Interesting to look at the holdings by business segment and country/region. Pretty diversified. 

Fairfax_Equity_Holdings_Sept_2020.xlsx

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Viking

Of the ones you tagged as associates you won’t see their share price improvement reflected in BK.

Only FFH% portion of their earning gets added to their carrying value (net of dividends received).

 

The big lot for FFH are the associates and you would never see a big bounce on BK because of that. Only a gradual one as the investees earnings improves and start to stack up 

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Annual news.  They must file one every year on the off-chance that they wish to repurchase shares.  It's just a formality.

 

SJ

 

Thanks for cooling my excitement ;)

So, when and how would they report actual share repurchases?

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Annual news.  They must file one every year on the off-chance that they wish to repurchase shares.  It's just a formality.

 

SJ

 

Thanks for cooling my excitement ;)

So, when and how would they report actual share repurchases?

 

 

FFH usually makes mention of the repurchases in its quarterly financials.  Alternatively, if you don't want to wait until the financials are published, you can look for filings on SEDAR or this site is a good option:  https://www.canadianinsider.com/company-insider-filings?ticker=FFH

 

 

SJ

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Annual news.  They must file one every year on the off-chance that they wish to repurchase shares.  It's just a formality.

 

SJ

 

Thanks for cooling my excitement ;)

So, when and how would they report actual share repurchases?

 

 

FFH usually makes mention of the repurchases in its quarterly financials.  Alternatively, if you don't want to wait until the financials are published, you can look for filings on SEDAR or this site is a good option:  https://www.canadianinsider.com/company-insider-filings?ticker=FFH

 

 

SJ

 

Anyone else notice subordinate voting share count is actually up YoY? 27,242,281 at 9/16/2020, 26,067,450 at 9/16/2019.

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