Fairfax stock positions

[Crip1]

On 11/1/2021 at 8:25 AM, StubbleJumper said:

Once again, can we please stop using the terms equity "hedges" and inflation "hedges?"  Those terms imply that FFH was engaging in responsible risk management practices.  What FFH actually did was "hedge" more than 100% of its equity portfolio and it had deflation "hedges" with a notional value of more than $100B for a company that had annual revenues that were less than one-third that high.  When you "hedge" more than 100% of your exposure to the underlying, you are no longer managing risk, but rather speculating.

 

So, let's instead tell the brutal truth.  What FFH actually did was use derivatives for the purpose of market speculation.  Management did this, it didn't work, and it cost shareholders dearly.  We should not use the word "hedge" as an euphemism to somehow suggest that management made responsible choices with respect to position sizing.

 

 

SJ

This is coming from someone who "Drank the hedging Kool-Aid" several years ago. You are 100% right, SJ. Even if the market moved sideways it was a flawed idea. My bad for not seeing it at the time and you are right, it was pure speculation.

 

-Crip

[modiva]

11 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Sorry, but i got to push back on this view as well.

Had they retired half of their share, and the market had plunged, collectively we would have complained why could they not have bought back their share at a distress price and how they wasted so much dry powder on buybacks pre-market crash.

 

I would think the buybacks come with certain caveats such as:

 

1) the stock trades at a big discount, and the steeper the discount, the bigger the buybacks are 

2) allocating funds for a healthy mix of funding growth, reducing leverage, and buybacks

3) balancing the portfolio: sell expensive equities to buy cheaper Fairfax

 

As an experienced allocator, its reasonable to expect them to do meaningful buybacks at crazy cheap prices while balancing everything else including contingency planning. 

[glider3834]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

Fairfax has been ’monetizing’ a number of their privately held non-insurance holdings over the past couple of years. Fairfax’s definition of monetization is pretty broad and includes not just out-right sale (exiting entire holding) but also spinning the holding into the public markets (where they usually retain a controlling interest). Over the past 2 years they have ‘monetized’ more than $1 billion worth of assets. And they still have private investments worth more than $1 billion (my WAG) so they likely are not done in their effort to ‘surface value’. Am I missing any holdings?

 

Attached below is a Word document with more information: some notes from each transaction and more information for each holding (this post is long enough already) . 

 

Why are they moving in the 'monetization' direction so aggressively? Are they recognizing Hamblin Watsa is not a turn-around shop? Is it so the value of the individual holding gets reflected more accurately in BV? Is it to position the holding so it can be more successful? The amount of cash going to Fairfax has been pretty minimal so this does not look like a focus. What do board members think?

 

One big benefit for shareholders of the ‘monetization’ process is disclosure. Given the limited disclosure it is very difficult for investors to value the private holdings especially a couple of years after purchase. By reducing the number and size of private holdings Fairfax is making it easier for investors to understand, follow and attach a value to their many remaining equity holdings.

 

I have included APR and Fairfax Africa in the ‘sale’ bucket because these assets are no longer managed directly by Fairfax. BIG WIN.

Fairfax has been very opportunistic on the IPO front. The funds raised by these companies will be used to fund future growth/pay down debt. BIG WIN.

 

Bottom line? Fairfax has strengthened their remaining collection of equity holdings with these moves (taken as a whole). And to have achieved this much during Covid is impressive.

Future moves? Seven Islands IPO still on? Anchorage IPO in 2022? Digit IPO 2022?

 

Sales: outright sale/significant change in management (Fairfax no longer involved)

1.) APR - sold to Atlas - March 2020 - proceeds of $200 million (18 million Atlas shares at $11.10 per share)

2.) Fairfax Africa merger with Helios - July 2020 - owns 32% of new publicly traded entity

3.) Davos Brands - sold to Diagio - Sept 2020 - proceeds $59 million + consideration of $36 million (depending on brands performance) - cost (2016) was $50

4.) Easton baseball (part of Peak Ach) - sold to Rawlings - Dec 2020 - cash proceeds $65 plus 28% ownership position in Rawlings (#1 manufacturer in baseball) - gain on sale of $15 million

5.) Rouge Media - sold in Q1 2021 - proceeds of $10 million

6.) Toys ‘R Us - sold retail business - Aug 2021 - no financial terms provided - sold to Putnam Investments. Still own the real estate.

 

IPO’s/Mergers/Reverse Takeover: resulting in significant funds being raised to support growth prospects of company

7.) Dexterra (Carillion) reverse takeover of Horizon North - May 2020 - own 49% of publicly traded entity - carried on balance sheet at US$3.62/share

8.) Farmers Edge IPO - March 2021 - own 59.9% of publicly traded entity - raised $114 million

9.) Boat Rocker IPO - March 2021 - own 45% of publicly traded entity - raised $136.5 million

10.) Chemplast Sanmar IPO (Fairfax India) - Aug 2021 - subsidiary of Sanmar (Fairfax India has 42.9% equity interest in Sanmar).

 

11.) Insurance: Pethealth - Jan 1, 2021 - became a wholly owned subsidiary of Crum & Forster

- I included this move because I did not realize this had been done  

 

Remaining collection of Private Investments

1.) Peak Achievement - Bauer Hockey - 43% ownership (owned with Sagard Holdings)

2.) AGT - taken private Feb 2019 - 80% ownership if warrants are exercised

3.) EXCO - emerged from bankruptcy protection June 2019 - 44% ownership

4.) Mosaic - taken private June 2021

5.) Ant Media

6.) Sporting Life and Golf Town - 61% ownership of each

7.) Rawlings - 28% ownership - Dec 2020 - Seidler Equity Partners are controlling shareholders

8.) Chorus Aviation - 13% (implied ownership stake)

9.) Small positions - Praktiker, Kitchen Stuff Plus and William Ashley

Fairfax Private Investments Nov 2 2021.docx 150.13 kB · 0 downloads

great summary Viking

 

I guess question with these $1 bil set of private investments - how much more potential value extraction could there be from monetisation? How does the fair value sit with carrying value?

 

They have taken advantage of the attractive IPO market this year & sold/partnered up where they just don't have the expertise to move the business forward eg Toys r us 

 

We should be able to see some of the associates share of profit in AR 2021 to see how they are tracking - I think Exco is definitely one to watch provided they have not hedged too much of their production, they should be doing really well IMO with surge in natural gas prices.

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by glider3834

[nwoodman]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

Based on Markel's results, granted they have more specialty lines and less reinsurance, they wrote at a killer 93% CR for the 3rd quarter and are writing at 91% for the year so far.  Hopefully Fairfax's insurance results are as good.  Cheers!
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/markel-reports-2021-third-quarter-204400657.html

The more I see everyone else not taking significant hits from Ida and Europe, the more worried I get about Fairfax.  Really hope I am looking at it the wrong way.

[Viking]

43 minutes ago, glider3834 said:

great summary Viking

 

I guess question with these $1 bil set of private investments - how much more potential value extraction could there be from monetisation? How does the fair value sit with carrying value?

 

We should be able to see some of the associates share of profit in AR 2021 to see how they are tracking 

 

 

 

Glider, i find a lot of value in taking a big picture look at different parts of Fairfax. And then comparing where they are today to where they were 2 or 3 years ago. My analysis informs my thesis that many things are slowly improving at Fairfax.
 

Problems are being fixed. Companies are being put in a position to succeed. This is not to say all will succeed (Farmers Edge is on my watch list but it is still early days there). Others, like Dexterra, are simply hitting the ball out of the park (its market cap is up to almost US$500 million and they are looking to grow!). Chemplast Sanmar earnings look like Stelco earnings right now (PVC pricing is through the roof). And as this collection of businesses do well (in aggregate) we will see the benefits flow through to Fairfax (in different ways) in the coming years. These businesses over time will become a source of cash instead of a big use of cash (which has been the case in the past). That change is a big deal.

 

In terms of what is left to ‘monetize’ EXCO (oil and gas) sure looks interesting. Bauer (owned by Peak) is the #1 hockey brand in Canada and should be quite valuable. Blue Ant Media has been growing like a weed (and they hit a home run with Enthusiast Gaming. So my guess is there is significant value there that is not appreciated and Fairfax will figure out how to surface it (they are motivated).

Edited November 3, 2021 by Viking

[glider3834]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

Blue Ant Media has been growing like a weed (and they hit a home run with Enthusiast Gaming.

With Blue Ant - I am unclear what Fairfax's ownership % is?

 

'In the U.S., huge investors have snapped up production companies for staggering sums; Blue Ant itself is privately owned, with Fairfax Financial holding a big stake.'

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/rob-magazine/article-new-platforms-needs-lots-of-fresh-content-and-michael-macmillan-has/

 

 

We also partnered with Michael MacMillan and his team at Blue Ant Media through a Cdn$42 million investment in debt and warrants. Blue Ant is a media content and distribution company with brands such as Love Nature, one of the world’s largest libraries of 4K wildlife and nature content. Michael is very well known for winning an Oscar at the age of 27 and then going on to merge his film production business in 1998 to create Alliance Atlantis, the producer of the hit series CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, which was sold to CanWest and Goldman Sachs in 2007 for Cdn$2.3 billion. We trust that Michael and his team will have similar success with Blue Ant! (FFH AR 2016)

 

Torstar acquired 25% stake in Blue Ant in 2011 for around $22.7 mil (put approx Blue Ant value at $90 mil)

 

In 2016 Blue Ant raised capital & diluted Torstar stake down to 16% (did Fairfax boost its own ownership % during this dilution)  but at a 40% higher value (according to Torstar Annual report) based on their average weighted cost (lets estimate Blue Ant value $126 mil)

 

Then in 2021 Blue Ant had $100 mil windfall on their Enthusiast stake - but what is current value of Blue Ant business?  I would guess adding this Enthusiast stake windfall to 2016 valuation - possibly have a value north of $200 mil - but what is Fairfax's ownership ??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2021 by glider3834

[glider3834]

article on Eurobank re JP Morgan - at new 52 week high (last time I commented on Atlas reaching 52week high $16 it promptly fell to $14 so look out  

 

More specifically, it points out that it maintains an overweight stance for Eurobank and Alpha due to growth (with Eurobank remaining its top choice) as well as for the National Bank due to its defense balance sheets, while maintaining a neutral stance for Piraeus, underlining the significant transformation which also notes the very good history of the administration, but noting that it shows lower capital cushions and has a longer way to normalize ROTE. Thus, it gives a target price of 1.5 euros for Alpha with a margin of 35%, 1.20 euros for Eurobank with a margin of 29%, 3.30 euros for Ethniki with a margin of 20% and 1 , 90 euros for Piraeus with an increase margin of 29%. 

 

https://www.capital.gr/oikonomia/3592324/to-taxidi-tis-jp-morgan-stin-athina-kai-ta-minumata-gia-tis-ellinikes-trapezes-ti-tha-enisxusei-to-elkustiko-story-tou-kladou

Edited November 3, 2021 by glider3834

[Viking]

11 hours ago, glider3834 said:

With Blue Ant - I am unclear what Fairfax's ownership % is?

 

'In the U.S., huge investors have snapped up production companies for staggering sums; Blue Ant itself is privately owned, with Fairfax Financial holding a big stake.'

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/rob-magazine/article-new-platforms-needs-lots-of-fresh-content-and-michael-macmillan-has/

 

 

We also partnered with Michael MacMillan and his team at Blue Ant Media through a Cdn$42 million investment in debt and warrants. Blue Ant is a media content and distribution company with brands such as Love Nature, one of the world’s largest libraries of 4K wildlife and nature content. Michael is very well known for winning an Oscar at the age of 27 and then going on to merge his film production business in 1998 to create Alliance Atlantis, the producer of the hit series CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, which was sold to CanWest and Goldman Sachs in 2007 for Cdn$2.3 billion. We trust that Michael and his team will have similar success with Blue Ant! (FFH AR 2016)

 

Torstar acquired 25% stake in Blue Ant in 2011 for around $22.7 mil (put approx Blue Ant value at $90 mil)

 

In 2016 Blue Ant raised capital & diluted Torstar stake down to 16% (did Fairfax boost its own ownership % during this dilution)  but at a 40% higher value (according to Torstar Annual report) based on their average weighted cost (lets estimate Blue Ant value $126 mil)

 

Then in 2021 Blue Ant had $100 mil windfall on their Enthusiast stake - but what is current value of Blue Ant business?  I would guess adding this Enthusiast stake windfall to 2016 valuation - possibly have a value north of $200 mil - but what is Fairfax's ownership ??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@glider3834 i am not sure what Fairfax’s  ownership stake in Blue Ant is. My guess is it is not big (given it was split with Torstar). Regardless, it looks to me like Blue Ant has done a very good job over the years of expanding its business and Fairfax’s position likely has been increasing nicely in value.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Viking

[nwoodman]

Recipe’s Q3 is out

 

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/recipe-unlimited-reports-q3-2021-results-881668597.html

 

Looks like sales are indeed bouncing back nicely.  A marginal improvement in EBITDA over pre-Covid  2019 figures too.  I liked the news that they are selling positions that aren’t meeting expectations.  Far from my favourite FFH position but seems to be moving in the right direction

Edited November 3, 2021 by nwoodman

[glider3834]

1 hour ago, nwoodman said:

Recipe’s Q3 is out

 

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/recipe-unlimited-reports-q3-2021-results-881668597.html

 

Looks like sales are indeed bouncing back nicely.  A marginal improvement in EBITDA over pre-Covid  2019 figures too.  I liked the news that they are selling positions that aren’t meeting expectations.  Far from my favourite FFH position but seems to be moving in the right direction

yes agree -  considering that 30% of operating weeks were still affected by Covid looks like a stronger result than Q3'19 - revenue & EBITDA per restaurant is higher & adjusted net quarterly earnings 27.6 mil vs 19.5 mil - Q4 will continue to be affected by vaccine passport requirement & higher labour/food costs but moving along nicely - will be interesting to see what they can do when covid restrictions are closer to 0% level & I wonder if they can continue to still do reasonable level of ecommerce sales (how much will still remain when restrictions fully eased)

 

 

 

 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, nwoodman said:

Recipe’s Q3 is out

 

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/recipe-unlimited-reports-q3-2021-results-881668597.html

 

Looks like sales are indeed bouncing back nicely.  A marginal improvement in EBITDA over pre-Covid  2019 figures too.  I liked the news that they are selling positions that aren’t meeting expectations.  Far from my favourite FFH position but seems to be moving in the right direction

Agreed; nice to see the improvement at Recipe. I hope the focus on improving profitability and lowering total debt continues (and not just at Recipe). 
- nice that they show 2019 numbers
- there will be some lasting benefits that come out of the covid experience:

1.) significant investments in technology

2.) much higher e-commerce system sales 

3.) heightened urgency to deal with issues (poorly performing brands and locations)

- this will result in a leaner more profitable business moving forward

- debt reduction was also significant - net debt dropped by $50 million or more than 10% and is now lower than 2019. 
- number of restaurants = 1,284 down meaningfully  from 1,375 in 2019.
- covid issues remain (staffing, higher food costs, managing through Delta etc) so improvement from here will likely be slow and steady

- Pinnacle Award - F&H’s Company of the Year - https://www.foodserviceandhospitality.com/kostuch-media-ltd-announces-2021-pinnacle-award-winners/

Edited November 3, 2021 by Viking

[glider3834]

7 hours ago, Viking said:

@glider3834 i am not sure what Fairfax’s  ownership stake in Blue Ant is. My guess is it is not big (given it was split with Torstar). Regardless, it looks to me like Blue Ant has done a very good job over the years of expanding its business and Fairfax’s position likely has been increasing nicely in value.

@Viking yep I think so too -  I think because its a private company they are keeping a lot of the financial stuff confidential 

[glider3834]

Kennedy Wilson

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kennedy-wilson-reports-third-quarter-201500851.html

"Our strong 3Q and year-to-date results reflect the tremendous progress we have made in growing our business over the last 18 months," said William McMorrow, Chairman and CEO of Kennedy Wilson. "We saw exceptional rent growth across our portfolio in 3Q resulting in continued growth in the value of our real estate portfolio. I am also pleased to report that the Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.24 per share."

[StubbleJumper]

When FFH went into the restaurant biz, I shit all over the idea because there are few industries as competitive as the restaurant industry.  Every cooking enthusiast and every immigrant seems to think that he should set up a restaurant, put in ridiculous unpaid hours, recruit family members to work for peanuts, and even then most go out of business within a few years.  But, Cara/Recipe has actually turned this into a half-decent business.

 

I didn't post about this, but six weeks ago, I went for a vacation on Canada's east coast.  When I travel by car, my objective is to rack up miles, so I stop in some pretty mediocre restaurants.  McDonalds is my mainstay because it's normally right beside the highway, it's predictable, it's very fast, it's cheap and the cans are always clean.  When I want to be "fancy" while driving, sometimes I stop at St. Hubert, which is what I did six weeks ago on my way to the east coast.

 

St. Hubert has long been a very popular restaurant in Quebec because it was about the cheapest place you could go for a sit-down meal with table service.  For decades their stock-in-trade was to sell quarter chicken meals (I prefer the leg-quarter) at a price that clocked in a couple of dollars higher than a McDonald's combo meal.  The menu was traditionally very short, focussing on the chicken quarters, but also offering hot chicken sandwiches and poutine for those who weren't into roasted chicken.  The up-sell was traditional Quebec desserts (sugar pie, or Poor Man's pudding) for a few bucks more.  In short, it was a place to get an okay meal for an excellent price, with table service.

 

I go to St. Hubert's a couple of times per year, but when I stopped there in September, it struck me that I could no longer find the quarter chicken meals on the menu.  Being a cheap bastard careful with my money, I thoroughly looked through the menu and finally found the traditional quarter-chicken meals in small print on like page 4 of the menu.  The first 3 pages were dedicated to a whole host of more expensive menu items (ribs, steaks, other chicken dishes, etc) and the cheapo traditional meals were buried deep in the menu.  Okay, at least I found the cheapo (and fast!) option that I wanted, but it struck me that Cara/Recipe has done a great job of adapting the menu in an attempt to push the cheques higher.  The founders did one thing well, and that was serve good chicken at a cheap price.  The new management approach has taken the restaurant traffic from long-time patrons and added value by lengthening the menu with higher priced options.  Who knew that professional management could actually add value after an acquisition?!?

 

Anyway, that's a lengthy anecdote just to say that I had a nice vacation in the maritimes and that Recipe has done far more with St. Hubert than I had ever expected.  In the next installment of my vacation diary, I will describe how I saved nearly 20 dollars by using the cheap-ass innovative technique of purchasing my own oyster shucking knife and buying oysters from the fishermen directly on the wharf...

 

 

SJ

[Xerxes]

wow ...I just remembered this. Time flies. That was 5 years ago now.

 

Swiss Chalet owners Cara buying St-Hubert for $537M | CBC News

 

Back then i had zero investment in FFH. Was just a curiosity to read about now and then. I am optimist by nature, I could not square investing with someone so bearish back then.

 

[Viking]

Fairfax’s bank in Egypt, Commercial International Bank, has been on fire the past 5 weeks. Not sure what is up. 
 

Fairfax owns 6.5% of CIB = 128 million shares (from the CIB web site)
- The shares have increased from Egyptian Pound 42.66 (Sept 30) to 54 (Nov 3)

- Fairfax’s position has increased from US$347 (Sept 30) to $439 (Nov 3) = + $92 million

 

This puts CIB as Fairfax’s fifth largest individual stock holding after Atlas, Eurobank, Blackberry and Quess. It is larger than Stelco and Resolute.

 

- https://ir.cibeg.com

Edited November 4, 2021 by Viking

[modiva]

On 11/2/2021 at 4:23 PM, Parsad said:

 

So, while shorting cost them

And the main reason they had to guess macro-events was so their insurance business would not get hit with the long-tail insurance they write and the amount of debt they were carrying.  Markel, Berkshire, etc did not have this problem...they aren't as leveraged.  But Fairfax had to short and hedge because of their leverage.  

 

I'm less concerned about Prem shorting markets when he thinks they are overvalued, then simply the debt load they carry which prevents them from going long when markets give them great opportunities.  I would like to see the debt load cut in half!  Cheers!

 

@Parsad thanks for this insight. Is the high debt levels perhaps a reason for high discount to BV?  It looks like debt/equity is very high (40%+) compared to Berkshire and Markel (20%-30% range).  Not sure when the debt levels went up that high. High levels of leverage jeopardize the business especially in tough times as we saw they were forced to borrow during pandemic, although they never needed it. Deleveraging has to be #1 priority, even ahead of dividend payments in my opinion.  Would be great to hear other members views, especially @Viking:) 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

14 hours ago, Viking said:

Fairfax’s bank in Egypt, Commercial International Bank, has been on fire the past 5 weeks. Not sure what is up. 
 

Fairfax owns 6.5% of CIB = 128 million shares (from the CIB web site)
- The shares have increased from Egyptian Pound 42.66 (Sept 30) to 54 (Nov 3)

- Fairfax’s position has increased from US$347 (Sept 30) to $439 (Nov 3) = + $92 million

 

This puts CIB as Fairfax’s fifth largest individual stock holding after Atlas, Eurobank, Blackberry and Quess. It is larger than Stelco and Resolute.

 

- https://ir.cibeg.com

 

Eurobank has also been on quite the tear over the last 1-2 months. It's going to be an excellent Q4 for Fairfax if this all holds up through December. 

[StubbleJumper]

4 hours ago, modiva said:

 

@Parsad thanks for this insight. Is the high debt levels perhaps a reason for high discount to BV?  It looks like debt/equity is very high (40%+) compared to Berkshire and Markel (20%-30% range).  Not sure when the debt levels went up that high. High levels of leverage jeopardize the business especially in tough times as we saw they were forced to borrow during pandemic, although they never needed it. Deleveraging has to be #1 priority, even ahead of dividend payments in my opinion.  Would be great to hear other members views, especially @Viking

 

 

The deleveraging is occurring very rapidly due to growth in the denominator for most measures of indebtedness (ie, debt/asset or debt/equity).  The difference between those debt ratios in 2020 and in 2021 is like night and day.  Another year or two with a 15% ROE would push those ratios into a nice and comfortable range, without ever repaying a single nominal dollar of debt.

 

I was very unhappy with FFH management for having been so levered prior to the pandemic, but they've seemingly managed to grow their way out of the problem.

 

 

SJ

[Viking]

4 hours ago, modiva said:

 

@Parsad thanks for this insight. Is the high debt levels perhaps a reason for high discount to BV?  It looks like debt/equity is very high (40%+) compared to Berkshire and Markel (20%-30% range).  Not sure when the debt levels went up that high. High levels of leverage jeopardize the business especially in tough times as we saw they were forced to borrow during pandemic, although they never needed it. Deleveraging has to be #1 priority, even ahead of dividend payments in my opinion.  Would be great to hear other members views, especially @Viking

@modiva Fairfax has its warts.
1.) increase in debt the past few years

2.) drop in interest and dividend income 

3.) runoff - especially now that the good part of runoff has been sold

4.) Brit

5.) management credibility

 

These are just a few that quickly come to mind. It will be interesting to see where debt levels sit after Q3 results with proceeds from sales of Riverstone ($700) and Brit ($375). I see they are also redeeming another $85 million of debt (announced in October). Bottom line, debt reduction looks to be a priority  

[glider3834]

4 hours ago, modiva said:

 

@Parsad thanks for this insight. Is the high debt levels perhaps a reason for high discount to BV?  It looks like debt/equity is very high (40%+) compared to Berkshire and Markel (20%-30% range).  Not sure when the debt levels went up that high. High levels of leverage jeopardize the business especially in tough times as we saw they were forced to borrow during pandemic, although they never needed it. Deleveraging has to be #1 priority, even ahead of dividend payments in my opinion.  Would be great to hear other members views, especially @Viking

@modiva it is worth looking at the debt in three buckets

1. holdco debt

2. insurance/reinsurance subs debt

3. non-insurance subs debt

 

So on 3. non-insurance subs debt.

 

When we have a controlling interest in a company (for example, Recipe or Thomas Cook India), we are required to consolidate that company’s financial statements into our own financial statements even though we do not guarantee the debt – and quite often it is an investment in a public company. (AR 2020)

 

So this debt is not guaranteed by Fairfax - if Fairfax instead of owning these non-insurance subs replaced them with small shareholdings (<20%,non-controlling) then this debt would disappear. The debt is required to be consolidated under accounting rules because Fairfax is a controlling shareholder. 

 

So when you are looking at Debt to Capital ratios & comparing to other insurers just keep 3. in mind, as Fairfax generally has more concentrated equity positions than other insurers which might own ETFs, or more diversified equity portfolios.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[glider3834]

32 minutes ago, Viking said:

It will be interesting to see where debt levels sit after Q3 results with proceeds from sales of Riverstone ($700) and Brit ($375).

Yes plus the Digit revaluation (1.2bil approx- $46 per share- Q4 expected closing I guess) will further lower the Debt to Capital ratio

Edited November 4, 2021 by glider3834

[glider3834]

@modiva it looks like Fairfax has reduced its annualised interest expense by around 5.5% this year from $475 mil in 2020 to $449 mil current.

 

AR2020

 

 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000915191/000110465921120474/tm2127687-4_f10a.htm

 

 

 

 

[modiva]

Thanks very much for your insightful comments on debt reduction @StubbleJumper @Viking @glider3834

 

It looks like the trends are encouraging:  lowering of interest expense obligations, slowly retiring some debt and simultaneously increasing equity.  

 

@glider3834 your point of non-insurance sub debt is interesting.  I will dig around to understand what % this makes up.  The higher this is, the better it is, obviously.  

 

 

 

 

[Daphne]

-- Earnings Flash (FFH.TO) FAIRFAX FINANCIAL Posts Q3 Net Earnings of US$462.4 Million ($16.44 Net Earnings Per Diluted Share After Payment of Preferred Share Dividends)