bennycx Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I have taken a small short position in DJCO today, as its market cap reached $300mln today. The implicit Munger premium (market cap - (stock portfolio + net cash - minus margin debt + 4x EBITDA for the ongoing business)) has reached an unsustainable all time high at a point where he is towards the end of his career, the upside of the stock portfolio is limited and the core business is crumbling. I love Charlie, but a 30% discount to today's price (which is still a substantial premium) should be warranted. the upside of the stock portfolio is limited...? i don't think it is a good idea to short DJCO unless you're also long the underlying portfolio.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest notorious546 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It looks like the shares have pulled back quite a bit lately 188 now from 260 late last year. Thought i would take a second look. below are rough numbers. i updated stock portfolio valuation where possible and left bonds and undisclosed holdings as per last statements. mkt cap of ~260 million, less stock + bond portfolio of 168 million, less 14.7 million in cash + debt givens you an EV of about 100 million on a business that has generated about 6.0 million in ebitda (bloomberg) in 2013 and 4.5 million cash flow in 2014 . so about 17x cash flow for underlying business. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 mkt cap of ~260 million, less stock + bond portfolio of 168 million, less 14.7 million in cash + debt gives you an EV of about 100 million on a business that has generated about 6.0 million in ebitda (bloomberg) in 2013 and 4.5 million cash flow in 2014 . so about 17x cash flow for underlying business. I think you also need to adjust for taxes on the appreciation of the common stocks and bond of $49 million. Based on your calculations, EV of the core biz would be closer to 150 million. wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valueyoda Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Covered my short, more because of illiquidity reasons than a removal of persisting overvaluation. The implied business value of the Daily Journal remains severely overstated. In addition, I continue to believe that the upside from the portfolio, especially the position in Wells Fargo, remains too limited to offset the shrinking business model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 BTW - its a small position, but based on the new 13F-HR out today, it looks like Charlie sold 85% of Daily Journal's Posco ADR holdings duriing the most recent Q ending 12/31. wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabuffo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 DJCO 10-Q is out: Confirms that Munger sold 54,900 PKX ADR shares for $4.044 million (@ $73.72 per share). He also spent $10.977 million on one or more common stocks. Since the 13F-HR did not show any other position changes (besides PKX) reported to the SEC - and Charlie didn't receive confidentiality for any new positions -- it's obviously shares purchased on a foreign exchange. wabuffo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longtermdave Posted March 25, 2015 Share Posted March 25, 2015 Munger Says Prepare for Harder World as Purchasing Power Slides: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/munger-says-prepare-harder-world-185025204.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisdom Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Any notes from the meeting would be appreciated. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Another glimpse of the meeting while we wait for some serious notes. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-25/munger-mocks-greece-s-idiotic-idea-you-can-vote-yourself-rich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 Tilson was there, so I would expect some good notes from him. I am way too lazy to take notes when I know someone else will do it better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 It was possible to record the whole meeting and I believe some people did. Whether they will transcribe and post, I don't know. I did not record the whole thing: I did not plan and I was not prepared and too lazy to transcribe afterwards anyway. :) There was nothing earth-shattering IMHO. The theme was mostly that competition in various businesses (AXP, China vs. West, etc.) is getting stronger and moats perhaps will be harder to maintain and investing and beating indexes will be harder too than it was in his investment lifetime. He expressed a couple opinions about specific companies that I won't try to paraphrase: wait for transcribed notes. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowIQinvestor Posted March 26, 2015 Share Posted March 26, 2015 FYI: http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/03/charlie-munger-2015-djco-meeting/ "Munger Says Prepare for Harder World as Buying Power Slides"---- Would love for Buffet and Munger to discuss this more over a Blizzard at DQ. Can't imagine Buffett would agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Any notes from the meeting would be appreciated. TIA +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Any notes from the meeting would be appreciated. TIA +1 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FiveSigma Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Any notes from the meeting would be appreciated. TIA +1 +1 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Any notes from the meeting would be appreciated. TIA +1 +1 +1 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2015/03/26/quote-of-the-year/ “This has basically never happened before in my whole life. I can remember 1½ percent rates. It certainly surprised all the economists. It surprised the people who created the life insurance industry in Japan, who basically all went broke because they guaranteed to pay a 3% interest rate. I think everybody’s been surprised by it, including all the people who are in the economics profession who kind of pretend they knew it all along. But I think practically everybody was flabbergasted. I was flabbergasted when they went low; when they went negative in Europe – I’m really flabbergasted. How many in this room would have predicted negative interest rates in Europe? Raise your hands. [No hands go up]. That’s exactly the way I feel. How can I be an expert in something I never even thought about that seems so unlikely. It’s new territory…. “I think something so strange and so important is likely to have consequences. I think it’s highly likely that the people who confidently think they know the consequences – none of whom predicted this – now they know what’s going to happen next? Again, the witch doctors. You ask me what’s going to happen? Hell, I don’t know what’s going to happen. I regard it all as very weird. If interest rates go to zero and all the governments in the world print money like crazy and prices go down – of course I’m confused. Anybody who is intelligent who is not confused doesn’t understand the situation very well. If you find it puzzling, your brain is working correctly.” Charles Munger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Any notes from the meeting would be appreciated. TIA There is some guy selling notes for $33 or something like that. I won't advertise for him though. No free notes so far AFAIK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBird Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Here's a 2 hour audio clip of the Q & A. It includes everything except the very first question (which Charlie said happened to be the most intelligent question ever asked at the meeting, haha)Birdy_-_Charlie_DJCO_-_Mar_25_2015_10:09_AM.m4a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Thanks JBird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loganc Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Here's a 2 hour audio clip of the Q & A. It includes everything except the very first question (which Charlie said happened to be the most intelligent question ever asked at the meeting, haha) Very awesome. Thank you so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dolce far niente Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Here's a 2 hour audio clip of the Q & A. It includes everything except the very first question (which Charlie said happened to be the most intelligent question ever asked at the meeting, haha) +100. Very clear. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VersaillesinNY Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Thanks JBird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farnamstreet Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 Any notes from the meeting would be appreciated. TIA There is some guy selling notes for $33 or something like that. I won't advertise for him though. No free notes so far AFAIK. That would be me. I have 2013/2014/2015 notes. You can find them here http://myinvestingnotebook.blogspot.ca/2015/03/daily-journal-2015-meeting-notes.html but keep in mind there is an audio copy floating around and a lot of free notes out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted March 31, 2015 Share Posted March 31, 2015 That would be me. You can find them here http://myinvestingnotebook.blogspot.ca/2015/03/daily-journal-2015-meeting-notes.html but keep in mind there is an audio copy floating around and a lot of free notes out there. Just bought it! ;) Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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