Cardboard Posted January 18, 2018 Share Posted January 18, 2018 That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments? I personally bought a tiny bit of Namaste and saw an astronomical return but, not enough to move the needle. I just don't have your balls... Come on don't be shy! We keep hearing from the crypto lovers and how their speculation made them rich because they rightly anticipated that 2017 would be THE YEAR that people would equate it to gold and its $7 trillion value. I want that crystal ball! Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! Actually, lots of people who stopped using their calculator and joined the Pavlov's dogs on Wall Street. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I share your frustration. I miss the old days where Parsad had time to maintain the culture of the site... not a 100 pages on those crypto speculations but solid research by team members. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I had a short CMED long HIP merger arbitrage that made a ridiculous return when HIP went up 5x in a week after they got a regulatory approval. I closed the position with HIP at $2, so missed the top but pretty happy that my 15% spread turned into a 4x. Sized it small like all arbs, so won't move the needle too much. Now have a small CMED long position just over $24, since the Aurora offer should put a bit of a floor at $24, and I think Aurora can raise their bid with more funny money. Very speculative and small. Gives me something to do when I'm waiting for actual value ideas. I owned Village Farms when all they grew was tomatoes as a value play, and sold on the initial double after the announcement they were switching to marijuana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 19, 2018 Author Share Posted January 19, 2018 Well Bizaro86, at least you are using logic in what you are doing, as you always do, so feel no shame with your returns. Regarding the "large caps" pot stocks such as ACB and WEED, I have noticed a pretty large spread between volatility on calls and puts. The puts appear to be in very large demand. I actually thought of buying some puts since the ascent in Nov-Dec is out of this world and seems to have run out of steam. However, at 100 to 150% volatility I decided to pass... So anyone "investing" in these things at 50 to 100 times revenues (LOL!) should buy a call and sell a put instead of owning the stock because you are being paid to do it. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Hjorth Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments? ... Come on don't be shy! ... ... I want that crystal ball! ... ... Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... ... ... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! ... Your ignore buttons here on CoBF are your friends. It's that plain simple, cardboard. Don't let anything nag you, that is nagging to you. The only situation I can think of where this does not apply, is if your wife is nagging you. Then you just have a real challenge to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lakesider Posted January 19, 2018 Share Posted January 19, 2018 I share your frustration. I miss the old days where Parsad had time to maintain the culture of the site... not a 100 pages on those crypto speculations but solid research by team members. BeerBaron I suspect the quality of members on investing forums is cyclical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 Well Bizaro86, at least you are using logic in what you are doing, as you always do, so feel no shame with your returns. Regarding the "large caps" pot stocks such as ACB and WEED, I have noticed a pretty large spread between volatility on calls and puts. The puts appear to be in very large demand. I actually thought of buying some puts since the ascent in Nov-Dec is out of this world and seems to have run out of steam. However, at 100 to 150% volatility I decided to pass... So anyone "investing" in these things at 50 to 100 times revenues (LOL!) should buy a call and sell a put instead of owning the stock because you are being paid to do it. Cardboard Thanks, I appreciate that! I have a reflexive anti-bubble attitude, and had a really hard time putting on the merger arb trade, even though I would have done it without question had the companies in question sold industrial machine parts or something. I'm trying to be open minded about special situation opportunities without buying into speculative mania, which is a surprisingly hard line to walk. I suspect those put buyers are paying a rational price for the puts, but its tough because with volatility so expensive you need to get the timing right. Maybe bear call spreads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Well that was fast. I sold my CMED today for a bit over $37. My consistent history is to sell way too soon on speculative nonsense stuff, so this may be an entry signal, I'm not sure. I think I'll go invest my ill gotten gains in a net-net, if anyone has any suggestions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 Bri-Chem. Sells for $0.65 and net-net is $0.63. However, it is profitable unlike biotechs and other junk companies selling for much less than net-net. It has been stuck at this price for a while despite fixing their debt and solid prospects, due to a large seller from Merrill Lynch who has been unloading for a few months now. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 One word: PotCoin :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Bri-Chem. Sells for $0.65 and net-net is $0.63. However, it is profitable unlike biotechs and other junk companies selling for much less than net-net. It has been stuck at this price for a while despite fixing their debt and solid prospects, due to a large seller from Merrill Lynch who has been unloading for a few months now. Cardboard Thanks! That's actually hilarious, as I've owned Bri-Chem for a couple of years, I first saw it mentioned here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4021454-bri-chem-trades-cheaply-even-75-percent-move-2-months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazel Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 When someone wants to be serious about shorting this garbage and ways to do it logically I am in for a discussion about instruments to do it...that goes for any pot stock and Bitcoin and the other 600 coins. I don’t want to talk about why if you can’t see it...well enough said....it may be 6 months not sure but these are slam dunk shorts...just not yet. Everyone I know young and old are coming out of nowhere to buy this ponzi mania. It’s fish in barrel at the right time...I have screamed about business set ups to anyone who asks...what do they do? They buy....and for now they are a genius... Fairfax bought puts on the dot com iPo’s as the insiders lock ups expired as did Sir John Templeton....there are no instruments here yet that I know of...anyone have ideas? Bitcoin futures are too short....looking for the best way. To be clear whoever is speculating making money all the power to you!!! The voting machine is alive and well...I want to be around when it becomes time to be weighed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazel Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 “I am a Buzz Kill” I know I know. Dazel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StubbleJumper Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 “I am a Buzz Kill” I know I know. Dazel Nope, I'd say that you're not a buzz kill around here. I am guessing that 75% of board members are steering clear of all of that nonsense. SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 22, 2018 Author Share Posted January 22, 2018 "...there are no instruments here yet that I know of...anyone have ideas?" You can short pot stocks and also can buy puts on them but, both alternatives are pricey! With bitcoin futures live, puts/calls cannot be far behind. However, also expect implied volatility to be out of this world rendering them near useless. Bear spreads is likely the only way as mentioned by Bizaro86 however, you need to have a brokerage account properly setup because if not, the sale of an option will consume margin even if offset by the other one. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazel Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 Cardboard I am aware of the pricing...does not Make sense...to bet against a mania and pay that high a price...that is why it’s a mania of course. I guess I am really sending up a flare...for what instruments are coming and when someone spots that...that make economic sense...mania’s have to settle...but wow are there some beauties out there...billion dollar companies with 0 revenue!!! Selling pot for $10. A gram with $1 tax and H.S.T... It’s hilarious...and people are falling over them selves to buy it. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 It is a new era. ;) People are simply extrapolating what revenues/profits should look like after July 1, 2018, assumed some additional growth and are paying full price today for said future. No different than trying to extrapolate how many eye balls would yield in terms of advertising revenue or sales back in 1999 and paying the price for all kind of firms promising just that. Now consider the following or what El-Erian said in 2008 in different words: people were wondering if the Big Mac would be served at the next counter at the drive-thru after having paid at the first counter? We go from one extreme to the other on the trust scale in just 8 to 10 years. People never learn. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dazel Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 True that Cardboard. I am understanding Buffett and Mungers persona more by the day.(don’t understand it...blah blah...i do understand it...mathematically it’s impossible!) I can’t save them even though I keep trying....I am exhausted so I am going to make a lot of money on this stupidity...when the time comes and the instruments to bet against this insanity become available. If I find something I will let you know...I would hope you will do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments? I personally bought a tiny bit of Namaste and saw an astronomical return but, not enough to move the needle. I just don't have your balls... Come on don't be shy! We keep hearing from the crypto lovers and how their speculation made them rich because they rightly anticipated that 2017 would be THE YEAR that people would equate it to gold and its $7 trillion value. I want that crystal ball! Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! Actually, lots of people who stopped using their calculator and joined the Pavlov's dogs on Wall Street. Cardboard The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about. I disagree. Pot is an agricultural product that is easily grown by anyone (even by yourself in your own garden). That is like saying you are going to get rich investing in tomatoes. Unless the government steps in and creates an artificial monopoly (i.e. licensing only certain companies to grow and/or sell it), then I don't see what competitive advantage any one grower or seller has over any other. I'm sure there will be name brands with proprietary strains and pretty packaging, but that is a long way off and impossible to predict. I think the safest long term bet to profit from pot would be Altria, probably not a bad idea actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cardboard Posted January 23, 2018 Author Share Posted January 23, 2018 "The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about." Should I reply to you by saying that you are ignorant or just like the responses I received in the crypto thread? Unless you have missed it, there has been a huge surge in shares of pot producers in Canada. So some people have made tremendous amounts of money. All based on what sales should look like down the road. And no, I have never supposed that there would be some long term winners. Cardboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments? I personally bought a tiny bit of Namaste and saw an astronomical return but, not enough to move the needle. I just don't have your balls... Come on don't be shy! We keep hearing from the crypto lovers and how their speculation made them rich because they rightly anticipated that 2017 would be THE YEAR that people would equate it to gold and its $7 trillion value. I want that crystal ball! Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! Actually, lots of people who stopped using their calculator and joined the Pavlov's dogs on Wall Street. Cardboard The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about. I disagree. Pot is an agricultural product that is easily grown by anyone (even by yourself in your own garden). That is like saying you are going to get rich investing in tomatoes. Unless the government steps in and creates an artificial monopoly (i.e. licensing only certain companies to grow and/or sell it), then I don't see what competitive advantage any one grower or seller has over any other. I'm sure there will be name brands with proprietary strains and pretty packaging, but that is a long way off and impossible to predict. I think the safest long term bet to profit from pot would be Altria, probably not a bad idea actually. I don't think that's what he's saying at all. Crypto was the #1 performing asset class of 2017, but Canadian marijuana stocks were probably number 2, with many/most up hundreds of percent. As just one example, TSX:WEED is a 10 bagger in the last 18 months or so. Of course, its market cap was unreasonably large before that 10X, and at $7 billion is absurd, its clearly a bubble. But there are people who are absolutely convinced that everyone is going to start using marijuana recreationally, and that these companies are the next MO because of it. Maybe there will be a couple of winners out of this (probably) but I don't see a way to find them in advance, and the valuations assume that all the companies will be big winners, but that's absurd. Very much like crypto, actually. Maybe one or two coins will work out as long term stores of value, but the world doesn't need hundreds of crypto-currencies, so most will flame out. Plus, the companies changing from ice-tea (for example) to crypto probably don't have a durable competitive advantage in crypto currency, so the fact their stocks are going up on a name change is absurd. Basically, there are two big bubbles right now, and we have a thread with people discussing their big gains in one. Surprising that no one has big gains on the other to brag about. I was the only one who admitted owning any of them, and I only had it as a merger arb position. The two segments don't seem that different to me in bubblyness, so I'd be surprised if we had buyers of one but not the other on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkbabang Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments? I personally bought a tiny bit of Namaste and saw an astronomical return but, not enough to move the needle. I just don't have your balls... Come on don't be shy! We keep hearing from the crypto lovers and how their speculation made them rich because they rightly anticipated that 2017 would be THE YEAR that people would equate it to gold and its $7 trillion value. I want that crystal ball! Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! Actually, lots of people who stopped using their calculator and joined the Pavlov's dogs on Wall Street. Cardboard The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about. I disagree. Pot is an agricultural product that is easily grown by anyone (even by yourself in your own garden). That is like saying you are going to get rich investing in tomatoes. Unless the government steps in and creates an artificial monopoly (i.e. licensing only certain companies to grow and/or sell it), then I don't see what competitive advantage any one grower or seller has over any other. I'm sure there will be name brands with proprietary strains and pretty packaging, but that is a long way off and impossible to predict. I think the safest long term bet to profit from pot would be Altria, probably not a bad idea actually. I don't think that's what he's saying at all. Crypto was the #1 performing asset class of 2017, but Canadian marijuana stocks were probably number 2, with many/most up hundreds of percent. As just one example, TSX:WEED is a 10 bagger in the last 18 months or so. Of course, its market cap was unreasonably large before that 10X, and at $7 billion is absurd, its clearly a bubble. But there are people who are absolutely convinced that everyone is going to start using marijuana recreationally, and that these companies are the next MO because of it. Maybe there will be a couple of winners out of this (probably) but I don't see a way to find them in advance, and the valuations assume that all the companies will be big winners, but that's absurd. Very much like crypto, actually. Maybe one or two coins will work out as long term stores of value, but the world doesn't need hundreds of crypto-currencies, so most will flame out. Plus, the companies changing from ice-tea (for example) to crypto probably don't have a durable competitive advantage in crypto currency, so the fact their stocks are going up on a name change is absurd. Basically, there are two big bubbles right now, and we have a thread with people discussing their big gains in one. Surprising that no one has big gains on the other to brag about. I was the only one who admitted owning any of them, and I only had it as a merger arb position. The two segments don't seem that different to me in bubblyness, so I'd be surprised if we had buyers of one but not the other on the forum. Fair enough I guess. I've been out of the loop on this and not following it. I do think long term there is something there with crypto, something completely new on a par with the internet and weed is an agricultural product on a par with avocados or tomatoes. Thinking out loud, maybe coffee is a better analogy since there are many different strains yet they are all similar (unlike beer which varies greatly as many different ingredients and processes are used to make it). So maybe there will be a Starbucks of weed someday. I don't know. But to try to equate pot to crypto is like trying to equate coffee to the internet. One is plant product that you either enjoy or not and the other is a fundamental technology which will change the lives of every human on Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clutch Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments? I personally bought a tiny bit of Namaste and saw an astronomical return but, not enough to move the needle. I just don't have your balls... Come on don't be shy! We keep hearing from the crypto lovers and how their speculation made them rich because they rightly anticipated that 2017 would be THE YEAR that people would equate it to gold and its $7 trillion value. I want that crystal ball! Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! Actually, lots of people who stopped using their calculator and joined the Pavlov's dogs on Wall Street. Cardboard The whole basis of this thread is flawed. You are supposing that there will be long term winners in this space to brag about. I disagree. Pot is an agricultural product that is easily grown by anyone (even by yourself in your own garden). That is like saying you are going to get rich investing in tomatoes. Unless the government steps in and creates an artificial monopoly (i.e. licensing only certain companies to grow and/or sell it), then I don't see what competitive advantage any one grower or seller has over any other. I'm sure there will be name brands with proprietary strains and pretty packaging, but that is a long way off and impossible to predict. I think the safest long term bet to profit from pot would be Altria, probably not a bad idea actually. I don't think that's what he's saying at all. Crypto was the #1 performing asset class of 2017, but Canadian marijuana stocks were probably number 2, with many/most up hundreds of percent. As just one example, TSX:WEED is a 10 bagger in the last 18 months or so. Of course, its market cap was unreasonably large before that 10X, and at $7 billion is absurd, its clearly a bubble. But there are people who are absolutely convinced that everyone is going to start using marijuana recreationally, and that these companies are the next MO because of it. Maybe there will be a couple of winners out of this (probably) but I don't see a way to find them in advance, and the valuations assume that all the companies will be big winners, but that's absurd. Very much like crypto, actually. Maybe one or two coins will work out as long term stores of value, but the world doesn't need hundreds of crypto-currencies, so most will flame out. Plus, the companies changing from ice-tea (for example) to crypto probably don't have a durable competitive advantage in crypto currency, so the fact their stocks are going up on a name change is absurd. Basically, there are two big bubbles right now, and we have a thread with people discussing their big gains in one. Surprising that no one has big gains on the other to brag about. I was the only one who admitted owning any of them, and I only had it as a merger arb position. The two segments don't seem that different to me in bubblyness, so I'd be surprised if we had buyers of one but not the other on the forum. Fair enough I guess. I've been out of the loop on this and not following it. I do think long term there is something there with crypto, something completely new on a par with the internet and weed is an agricultural product on a par with avocados or tomatoes. Thinking out loud, maybe coffee is a better analogy since there are many different strains yet they are all similar (unlike beer which varies greatly as many different ingredients and processes are used to make it). So maybe there will be a Starbucks of weed someday. I don't know. But to try to equate pot to crypto is like trying to equate coffee to the internet. One is plant product that you either enjoy or not and the other is a fundamental technology which will change the lives of every human on Earth. To a bear, everything expensive looks like a bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rb Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 The one company that I consider serious in the cannabis space is CannTrust CNSX:TRST. It is partnered with Apotex - a large Canadian pharma. So it has access to money, scientists, facilities, basically a large range of resources. Both CannTrust and Apotex have been founded and are/were majority owned by Barry Sherman. I say "were" because a month ago he and his wife were found dead in their home. Police are treating them as suspicious deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizaro86 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 I'm sure there will be some winners with crypto, and if you pick them successfully you'll make money. That's probably true with pot as well, and given the level of regulation that can be expected I think tobacco is a better comparable than avocados. I own neither, and have no intention of buying either. I might put together a basket of shorts at some point, some of the ones that have no actual business or prospects and are just riding hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now