Berkshire Annual Meeting 2017 - Live Stream Discussion

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

Listened to the meeting again yesterday.

 

Am I the only person that thinks Munger has slowed down a bit? He's still a killer at the one line quips, but I thought he struggled a little to articulate himself at times. It felt especially painful when just before the half time break he was asked about China, and he stumbled so badly that Warren cut him off and they went straight to a break. He's obviously a company treasure, but if he's in pain (he complained about a sore back) then maybe it's time that he calls it a day?

 

The second thing I picked up on was a possible market forecast from Buffett when asked about what he thought Berkshire's intrinsic value would grow at over the next ten years. As we all know, Buffett will say that future returns are often dictated by interest rates, and he did say he thought that sooner rather than later over the next 10 years, interest rates would rise. So when Buffett previously says "markets are cheap if interest rates stay low" - I think that confirms what I thought in that the current low rate environment isn't going to last into the medium term, and that stocks are at very least, not cheap.

 

I think the questions as a whole were actually a little better than in previous years (not by much).

[gfp]

Well Charlie is 93 and he will continue to decline.  His back was hurting him sufficiently that he was in a wheel chair for the remainder of the weekend, through the CNBC interview, solo Yahoo interview and the final event, an all-day Berkshire Hathaway board meeting.  His responsibilities to Berkshire the company are basically non-existent.  Tom Murphy was also in a wheel chair.

 

I don't think he will retire unless he has a stroke or something.  His role is more as spiritual guide than business executive.  He has never really participated in running Berkshire - he has primarily served as a devils-advocate / foil to Buffett on major decisions, acquisitions, big stock purchases, etc.. 

 

I don't think Buffett thinks he can predict interest rates out 1 year, 5 years or 10 years.  He was just stating the truth of interest rates effect on values.  They mentioned Japan as an example of how long rates can stay "low" and surprise everybody.  Nobody knows where rates will go.

[Ballinvarosig Investors]

I don't think Buffett thinks he can predict interest rates out 1 year, 5 years or 10 years.  He was just stating the truth of interest rates effect on values.  They mentioned Japan as an example of how long rates can stay "low" and surprise everybody.  Nobody knows where rates will go.

I am wasn't talking about those questions that he answered.

[sleepydragon]

I think Buffett is saying stock market is effected by the long term interest rate expectations, which is maybe 4%. In the short term he expect rate will rise, but the question is what the rate will be in the long term. If we cut tax and increase spending , and thus caused inflation which results a much higher long term interest rate, than that's not good.

[Charlie]

Here is the CNBC Transcript of Buffett, Munger and Gates:

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/09/full-transcript-billionaire-investor-warren-buffett-speaks-with-cnbc-percent-u2019s-becky-quick-on-percent-u201csquawk-box-percent-u201d.html

 

I hope I will live to 93 and will "slow down" like this.  ;)

[netnet]

Munger is 93 and he is slowing down.  I noticed this at the Daily Journal meeting. He missed one or two questions, etc. But on the decline he still has more cognitively than most Nobel Prize winners.

 

Not to be a rumor monger, but my suspicion is that he has cancer. Over the years he has said don't feel sorry for yourself, even if your child dies (his child did die). At the last Journal meeting, he said don't feel sorry for yourself if you have cancer. So, making the inference...

[Guest longinvestor]

The questions from the six journalists / analysts were much better this year, in that they were Berkshire related. Buffett had a line in the annual letter prodding them to make this happen. After all this is a shareholders' meeting. Last two years were terrible.

 

My two best moments,

 

Munger when asked about anything he wished: I wish I was 90

 

Buffett quoting Friedman on productivity: In a communist country, there were all these guys with shovels while the giant earth moving equipment lay idle. The communist party leader's line:  If we use the machine, these people will have nothing to do. Friedman: Then you should given them spoons instead.

[Guest longinvestor]

Another interesting comment by Munger, speaking of his best investment idea, See's Candy. He said that they wouldn't have bought KO were it not for their experience with See's. Talking about how they came to appreciate a good business after trying to fix the unfixable. Now, their purchase of AAPL is likely the result of holding both See's and KO. "Own a share of the consumer's mind". When it's a young mind, even better.

[SlowAppreciation]

Full meeting transcription: http://www.slowappreciation.com/blog/2017/5/29/2017-berkshire-hathaway-shareholders-meeting-transcript

[Charlie]

"Full meeting transcription: http://www.slowappreciation.com/blog/2017/5/29/2017-berkshire-hathaway-shareholders-meeting-transcript"

 

Thank you!  :)