BG2008 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Seems like a lot of the members with 30+% returns in 2016 had a lot of exposure to commodities in 2016. Just wondering if you guys can provide more details on how you were positioned going into 2016? Did you have the existing commodities position already? Were you able to pick the bottom or come close to picking the bottom? One of the member had mentioned that he was down 40-50% in 2015 and the near 100% was just getting him back into being even. If you can share if the 30+% was just getting you back to even or if it truly built upon your flat or positive returns in 2015, it would be very helpful. I know that FELP was a great trade for a lot of people on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Seems like a lot of the members with 30+% returns in 2016 had a lot of exposure to commodities in 2016. Just wondering if you guys can provide more details on how you were positioned going into 2016? Did you have the existing commodities position already? Were you able to pick the bottom or come close to picking the bottom? One of the member had mentioned that he was down 40-50% in 2015 and the near 100% was just getting him back into being even. If you can share if the 30+% was just getting you back to even or if it truly built upon your flat or positive returns in 2015, it would be very helpful. I know that FELP was a great trade for a lot of people on the board. I was already invested in oil/gas going into 2016 (which had a substantial contribution to my losses in 2015). I did pick up BTE somewhere below 4$ in september. All of my commodity holdings, with exception of BXE, are currently standing at a substantial profit since purchased. Fortunately for me I was able to add 50% to my portfolio in cash from bonusses (small personal portfolio) at the beginning of 2016, so the 40% return this year is about 2.5x the -20% loss I sustained last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanielGMask Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 +14.5%. Berkshire was a good contributor to my positive performance since CMG and MAT are flat for me and BBBY and WFM a little down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Seems like a lot of the members with 30+% returns in 2016 had a lot of exposure to commodities in 2016. Just wondering if you guys can provide more details on how you were positioned going into 2016? Did you have the existing commodities position already? Were you able to pick the bottom or come close to picking the bottom? One of the member had mentioned that he was down 40-50% in 2015 and the near 100% was just getting him back into being even. If you can share if the 30+% was just getting you back to even or if it truly built upon your flat or positive returns in 2015, it would be very helpful. I know that FELP was a great trade for a lot of people on the board. I think I was down 30% from peak to trough by the time Jan 2016 rolled around. Almost every energy related stock was cut in half from the time I first started buying. And I didn't start buying "energy" until maybe Oct/Nov of 2015 so I feel for the guys who started buying in late 2014. I owned one stock at 3-4x FCF, it went to 2x FCF and a friend said "it might as well trade for 1x FCF, what's the difference at this point." He's right though, you can't really manage market volatility in some of these blown out stocks. I'll be happy to find something at a 50% yield, but someone might pick it up at 100% a few weeks later for whatever crazy reason. For some coal/gas E&P stocks, weather is playing a big factor in the returns. If we had another warm winter I doubt things would have turned out this way in the later months of 2016. Or the Trump victory? It's probably important to ask where some of these stocks would be trading without some of those improbable events. Which is why I think writser and Hielko are putting up some great returns since they seem to be diversified enough to avoid being labeled as outliers or lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmp8822 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just wondering if you guys can provide more details on how you were positioned going into 2016? Did you have the existing commodities position already? Were you able to pick the bottom or come close to picking the bottom? Down 28-percent in 2015, up 135-percent in 2016. 70-percent total over 2 years. As I said earlier, I didn't post last year because I didn't want to see how bad I was doing. I was partly in commodity services and an industrial service firm, starting early 2015. Both have been winners now, however I made some trading mistakes on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 All our positions (except DB) were put on in 2015 or earlier. FTP Debs were bought in the 45-60 range when institutional IPS's were forcing them to dump. ADV blocks were added at roughly 1 per month depending on the market. PD is a very old core position added at < $C 4.00, similar thing with SAN. We started adding PWT < $C 2.00. Our 2015 loss was primarily portfolio MTM adjustment. We're OK at identifying the troughs; not so much at the timing, or how long we're going to be in them. The expectation is that we're either going to have to average down into a high weighting & sit on it (PWT, PD), or build quietly in thin markets (ADV) & sit on it. Over time we will opportunistically hedge (physical sale, T-Bill, & repurchase) until we've recovered our initial investment, then let the residual position rise & fall with the tide (hence the MTM adjustments). Not that different to what FFH does. We're above average at recognizing & capitalizing on panic (DB, FTP, FFH); & had also selected Rio Tinto & Glencore when they were experiencing their issues - but ultimately were unable to execute. It's a unique skill set attributable to our structure and collective backgrounds. It creates volatile returns (2015) but we're OK with that. SD Seems like a lot of the members with 30+% returns in 2016 had a lot of exposure to commodities in 2016. Just wondering if you guys can provide more details on how you were positioned going into 2016? Did you have the existing commodities position already? Were you able to pick the bottom or come close to picking the bottom? One of the member had mentioned that he was down 40-50% in 2015 and the near 100% was just getting him back into being even. If you can share if the 30+% was just getting you back to even or if it truly built upon your flat or positive returns in 2015, it would be very helpful. I know that FELP was a great trade for a lot of people on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragu Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Statutory warning: One year returns can be extremely skewed. In either direction. XIRR of 165.9%. Began the year with 98% in BH and ended it with 57% in FELP. Thanks to Picasso for his comment in the FELP thread about the market missing the incentives for the various actors involved there that caused me to dig deeper. Best, Ragu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orion Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2016 +20.09% 2015 +17.71% 2014 +11.78% 2013 +114.46% 2012 +44.02% 2011 +8.85% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Seems like a lot of the members with 30+% returns in 2016 had a lot of exposure to commodities in 2016. Just wondering if you guys can provide more details on how you were positioned going into 2016? Did you have the existing commodities position already? Were you able to pick the bottom or come close to picking the bottom? One of the member had mentioned that he was down 40-50% in 2015 and the near 100% was just getting him back into being even. If you can share if the 30+% was just getting you back to even or if it truly built upon your flat or positive returns in 2015, it would be very helpful. I know that FELP was a great trade for a lot of people on the board. I am reading the FELP thread. The timing was almost perfect and therefore some good luck might have been involved. Nonetheless, I am really impressed by the amount of very carefully executed work Picasso has put into this idea! Really amazing! I know I would never be able to dig so deeply and masterfully into any stock market idea. Picasso, next time you start a thread and notice I am not following, please send me a wake up call through DM!! Cheers, Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 +16.3% in securities I have a quote for. This has been a difficult year as I was right on O&G prices but hurt by some poor stock selection (GXE did great, BXE disappointing but now the cheapest in space & RMP (what was I thinking (???)) performance up low single digits. Korean preferreds outperformed indexes for third straight period but only up 27.3% cum in $ while index (KOSPI composite in $) is down 15% and WKOF (Koeran preferred fund) is down 20%. The strong $ hurt hear as Won declined by 16% vs. $. Greek cos flat (win w Autohellas loss w Intralot). Australia min svcs - 80% avg gain small overall gain (Emeco & Swick). HK real estate up about 10% (Asia Standard +15% & Shun Ho +25). US Telco/cable flat with a dip in the middle (GNCMA, HCOM, ALSK). Alliance same pattern - with majority shareholder now trying take-under - we will see if provisions put into purchase agreement to prevent this will work. TV & radio stocks (GTN & TSQ) bought at fire sale FCF multiples earlier this year - still cheap with multiple catalysts (up 20% in 3 months). Overall I like the valuations of portfolio cos but working on getting better at O&G selection & moving into more nanocap/semi-private situations. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jawn619 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 http://raritancapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Q4-2016.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Up about 35% for 2016...including a stake in VRX. thankfully it wasn't a huge position but still was a drag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OracleofCarolina Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Statutory warning: One year returns can be extremely skewed. In either direction. XIRR of 165.9%. Began the year with 98% in BH and ended it with 57% in FELP. Thanks to Picasso for his comment in the FELP thread about the market missing the incentives for the various actors involved there that caused me to dig deeper. Best, Ragu What did you see to go all in on BH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I was up around 11% when I did this on Twitter back in December. In 2015 it was 25%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2016: 67.2% 2015: -26.4% 2014: 30.3% 2013: 60.4% 2012: 38.7% 2011: -23.5% 2010: 11.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
intothebreach Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2016: 21.5% 2015: 4.5% 2014: 35.9% 2013: 32.0% 2012: 18.3% 2011: -13.0% 2010: 16.4% 2009: 31.3% 2008: -26.7% 2007: -12.1% (starting year) Best wishes to all of you for 2017! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Post the CAGRs! I can't do geometric means in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TBW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2016 20.3% 2015 30.0% 2014 19.9% 2013 14.5% 2012 1.3% 2011 4.4% 2010 18.9% 2009 15.0% 2008 -2.0% 2007 7.0% 7yr 15.2%, 5yr 16.8% ann. First three years my record keeping isn't great, the amount invested was tiny and given my job at the time had no time to invest so don't really look at my 10yr. It's funny to look back over 10yrs, I really didn't know anything when I started other than basic value investing principles. I wonder if I will look back in 10yr and think the same. Very happy with my returns despite some very obvious mistakes. Last 5yrs I have been short the cad housing market, that cost me ~2% annually (haven't given up on that yet!). I held far too much cash last 5yrs (avg 30%) due to macro concerns (working on this part of my investing). I have been focusing on sizing correctly, buying cheap stocks despite overall mkt valuations and ignoring most of the macro concerns. Currently I am the longest I have ever been, but also the shortest. I think that sums up the state of the market pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martian Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 +40%. Did not buy or sell anything this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 One note on historical returns over the past 4 years is that given the strength of the USD, CAD results are about 8% CAGR better than USD returns on exchange rate changes alone. Quite a ride. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 @tbw "It's funny to look back over 10yrs, I really didn't know anything when I started other than basic value investing principles. I wonder if I will look back in 10yr and think the same." just thinking about that. while i think i have learned alot of things over about 30 years of investing, what i have learned that has been most helpful is patience, and waiting for my conviction level to scale a higher hurdle in order to pull the trigger. no more putting out markers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Okay, Much better this year: 2016: 36.8% 2015: -20.1 2014: -2.9 2013: 59 12 yr. average: 32.4% All after tax: Pay taxes directly out of my brokerage account. The contributions this year were diverse but all Canadian: Enb, Fn, RY, Mtl, Rus, pwt, wcp, bep.un The major drag, and only loser, was SSW which was a big position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2016: 67.2% 2015: -26.4% 2014: 30.3% 2013: 60.4% 2012: 38.7% 2011: -23.5% 2010: 11.3% Post the CAGRs! I can't do geometric means in my head. 17.2% over 7 years, pre-tax :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmitz Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2016: 45% over 10 years: 15.9% My large legacy ATSG position wags the dog this year. I haven't done much for a while now and all new funds are invested conservatively due to lack of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 24.72% Time Weighted Return 28.07% Money Weighted Return Not a bad year considering I was holding a ton of cash (0-15% throughout the year), was actively short the U.S. markets by about 30-40% notional value throughout the year, and that 10% of my portfolio is FRFHF which didn't do much this year. Basically, this was the reversion trade, led by a handful of names that did terrible in 2014/2015. Commodities and EM were my saving grace this year and I was very fortunate in my timing of adding to most names catching them near their bottoms before taking a wild ride upward. Major contributors to performance were PEFIX, CLD, CNXC, PDER, ATUSF, BSBR, SBRCY, LUKOY, FNMA, and FNMAJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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