lathinker Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Varoufakis blog sums it up nicely. It seems EU doesn't really budge and pensions would have to be cut further (beyond lowering pension age). It seems Greece has come quite a long way towards EU (unless Varoufakis is full of shit). This is one of my all-time favourites... One can you think that Varoufakis was not full of shit? The guy promised three days ago on BBC that the negotians would be resumed on Monday "With 100% chance of success" and that "banks will reopen for sure on Tuesday". now that the got what he campaigned for, he just disappeared. Agreed! I am having more fun watching this than Breaking bad or other TV shows. Tsipras promised that if he gets the no vote, he will get a great deal from EU within 48 hours, guaranteed. And this guy Varoufakis also said that if referendum comes out as an YES, he would resign immediately because he cannot play the hide and pretend game anymore. Now he got this NO result and he resigned right away? WTF? Now we will see how this clown Tsipras is going to pull out a better deal within 48 hours. :D It's almost as if you expected them to tell the truth? If politicians were held accountable for their lies, there'd be few left outside of prison. The majority say whatever is necessary to achieve their ends. In this case, both of them said things to help achieve a "No" vote. What actually happens after they get it is in no way tied to what was promised before they had it. I don't know why anybody would put any weight on a promise that requires multiple parties cooperate when those parties aren't controlled by the individual making the promise. That's not say a deal won't get done - it just won't be because it was promised by the PM. Not expecting that, but I think Varoufakis is still a class of his own in terms of bizarreness. This is just four days ago: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33370592 It would be a great drama to watch if it was not all so sad. Having elderly people queue for hours to withdraw a few € and starting to run our of drugs is not all that funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Its going to be so boring with Varoufakis now gone .... but now we have dumb and dumber, so maybe there is still some hope! What are the odds that the Greeks simply tell Berlin and Brussels to shove it in the next few weeks - & take their €340bn of loans with them. SD Berlin and Brussels are now acting as if their aim is to punish Greece and force it out of monetary union, even though this would almost certainly precipitate a default on €340bn of liabilities to the eurozone. As expected, the government appointed Euclid Tsakalotos, the former chief debt negotiator, to take over as finance minister after the flamboyant Yanis Varoufakis was forced out to appease the creditor powers. Mr Varoufakis's final sin was to call his Eurogroup colleagues "terrorists". Mr Tsakalotos, an Oxford-educated economist, is less abrasive but he has never been a believer in the euro and comes from the "neo-Marxist" Left-wing of the Syriza movement. The switch may improve the atmosphere at Eurogroup meetings, but does not alter the fundamental clash of interests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jobyts Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 A nice summary of the current Greek crisis. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11721426/greece-crisis-what-you-need-to-know.html There have also been reports of some Greeks converting their euros to bitcoin, using the cryptocurrency in order to get money out of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Its going to be so boring with Varoufakis now gone .... but now we have dumb and dumber, so maybe there is still some hope! What are the odds that the Greeks simply tell Berlin and Brussels to shove it in the next few weeks - & take their €340bn of loans with them. SD Defaulting is always their prerogative. If it was that simple they would have done it 5yrs ago. The problem is they need more new euros to function..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevevri Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There's a large camp that seems to think a conversion to the drachma is easier then it is. The problem comes from the fact the country is dependent on others for oil, and many other imports. Even Varoufakis said this in one of the talks people reference as saying his plan was to switch to the Drachma. The less dependent you are on others and the more resources and reserves you have the easier it is to do so. Greece is not exactly in such a position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 This is one of my all-time favourites... One can you think that Varoufakis was not full of shit? The guy promised three days ago on BBC that the negotians would be resumed on Monday "With 100% chance of success" and that "banks will reopen for sure on Tuesday". now that the got what he campaigned for, he just disappeared. Well... nobody asked him what was it's definition of success. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 This is one of my all-time favourites... One can you think that Varoufakis was not full of shit? The guy promised three days ago on BBC that the negotians would be resumed on Monday "With 100% chance of success" and that "banks will reopen for sure on Tuesday". now that the got what he campaigned for, he just disappeared. Agreed! I am having more fun watching this than Breaking bad or other TV shows. Tsipras promised that if he gets the no vote, he will get a great deal from EU within 48 hours, guaranteed. And this guy Varoufakis also said that if referendum comes out as an YES, he would resign immediately because he cannot play the hide and pretend game anymore. Now he got this NO result and he resigned right away? WTF? People on this thread behave as if Varoufakis resigned based on his own preferences. He did not. He was pushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Why's that? Because introducing the € should have been an act that is not reversible, so they made no rule for an exit. No politician has thought about the current situation, politicians generally only think about what happens until the next polls. That's my point - since there are no rules for an exit, the rules cannot say that to exit the Euro they must exit the EU. My personal feeling on this is that exiting the Euro and reforming the economy are the two things that will get Greece working. I hope this is the direction they are going in and personally I think the reforms will be harder than leaving the Euro (although Varoufakis' is a good list). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Can somebody explain why Greece cannot stay in the EZ after default? The most common argument I have heard is that if this were to happen, then there would be nothing stopping the other PIIGS countries from doing so -aka no punishment for default. To me, this doesn't make any sense, when a country defaults, markets will punish them by raiding the cost of borrowing, so in that case, why not let this happen? That's the thing though, why would they not have access to Euros? To me it seems like the main risk here is political ramifications from other Euro countries, not economic ones as a consequence of default? I think their banking system would face insolvency and illiquidity on an enormous scale post-default - the country would likely face a choice between allowing its financial system to completely collapse or recapitalizing it. With no access to any Euros, recapitalization would presumably have to occur in a different currency. The alternative of financial system collapse just seems untenable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 What I meant by Varoufakis being not full of shit, is that those macro numbers are likely true. And the proposed reforms are also true. And the fact that Europe has not come towards greece in negotiations also seems to be true. And yes he was forced out. Similar case with Bill Erbey I think. He left to please EU politicians, because he pissed a lot of them off by lecturing them and sometimes acting like an ass. He is not a good politician. Does not mean he is not right about certain things. Just because someone is a clown in a certain aspect does not immediately make everything they say untrue. There are serious problems in greece, but you don't solve them by basically destroying the country imo. If I was greek id be scared by the next government if this one doesn't work out, they will be serious nutjob populists. Like those crazies you had elected in Argentina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). The same is true for keeping Spain, Portugal, Italy and France. This is why I see zero chance of keeping the Euro with the current legal, political and economical framework. This is fighting gravity. And European politicians either don't want to tell the truth to the people or they don't understand it (because they are vastly overestimating the power of politics vs. markets). I think it's more of the former than the latter because most politicians aren't stupid – it's all about incentives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest longinvestor Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). The same is true for keeping Spain, Portugal, Italy and France. This is why I see zero chance of keeping the Euro with the current legal, political and economical framework. This is fighting gravity. And European politicians either don't want to tell the truth to the people or they don't understand it (because they are vastly overestimating the power of politics vs. markets). I think it's more of the former than the latter because most politicians aren't stupid – it's all about their incentives. +1 US-E is not happening; Besides the insurmountable historical differences, the aging demography makes it an unattractively weak union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Haha no new proposal at Eurogroup. With 80% of Greeks wishing to stay in the Euro I wonder what most are thinking now. Syriza getting their Grexit wish soon I guess. GL guys, you'll need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). The same is true for keeping Spain, Portugal, Italy and France. This is why I see zero chance of keeping the Euro with the current legal, political and economical framework. This is fighting gravity. And European politicians either don't want to tell the truth to the people or they don't understand it (because they are vastly overestimating the power of politics vs. markets). I think it's more of the former than the latter because most politicians aren't stupid – it's all about incentives. +1, can you see how germany will not default at the end of the €? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). Agreed. We really need USoE. Unfortunately, it won't happen soon if at all. I was already amazed with the EU and EuroZone. I guess both of these were helped by good economic times. Bad economy pushes everyone into nationalism and anti-unionistic policies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 +1, can you see how germany will not default at the end of the €? I don't know what will happen. My guess is: a hugely deflationary scenario first (we get a taste of it by looking at Switzerland) and inflation and/or default afterwards. In any case, it will be very bad for our export driven economy. There will be a lot of tax raises before inflation/default – that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I don't think that the situation is as bad for Germany as you guys think. Of course, that's also the reason why Germany won't help Greece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). Agreed. We really need USoE. Unfortunately, it won't happen soon if at all. I was already amazed with the EU and EuroZone. I guess both of these were helped by good economic times. Bad economy pushes everyone into nationalism and anti-unionistic policies. Personally I think that's the last thing you need! No love lost between Europeans; bottling them all under one system could end badly. Better to go back to individual states, as imperfect as that is. Greece to lead the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). The same is true for keeping Spain, Portugal, Italy and France. This is why I see zero chance of keeping the Euro with the current legal, political and economical framework. This is fighting gravity. And European politicians either don't want to tell the truth to the people or they don't understand it (because they are vastly overestimating the power of politics vs. markets). I think it's more of the former than the latter because most politicians aren't stupid – it's all about incentives. +1, can you see how germany will not default at the end of the €? Talk me through the maths on this? What debts do you think they have to absorb from other partners that tips them into insolvency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frommi Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Talk me through the maths on this? What debts do you think they have to absorb from other partners that tips them into insolvency? Greece and the target 2 saldo should put us easily above 110% Debt/GDP and there will be a heavy contraction in GDP because all other european countries don`t pay in the same currency anymore. Its hard to see how this will all unfold and what the consequences are, but germany has a tendency to default instead of inflate. I hope that doesn`t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). Agreed. We really need USoE. Unfortunately, it won't happen soon if at all. I was already amazed with the EU and EuroZone. I guess both of these were helped by good economic times. Bad economy pushes everyone into nationalism and anti-unionistic policies. Personally I think that's the last thing you need! No love lost between Europeans; bottling them all under one system could end badly. Better to go back to individual states, as imperfect as that is. Greece to lead the way! I disagree. If EU falls apart, Europe will become completely irrelevant. EU has proved that there is some European commonality and potential for united Europe. This is the best direction. You are right in one point though: nobody can "bottle" Europeans together. If they don't make that choice themselves, that's their loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ni-co Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Talk me through the maths on this? What debts do you think they have to absorb from other partners that tips them into insolvency? Greece and the target 2 saldo should put us easily above 110% Debt/GDP and there will be a heavy contraction in GDP because all other european countries don`t pay in the same currency anymore. Its hard to see how this will all unfold and what the consequences are, but germany has a tendency to default instead of inflate. I hope that doesn`t happen. I don't think a Greek default per se is the problem but I can't see how Greece exits the Euro without Spain, Portugal and Italy (I think even France) eventually following; not in 2015 but within the next 10-20 years. German banks are loaded with European sovereign bonds, Germany has "off balance sheet" pension liabilities worth several times our official debt and our demographics are just awful. If it takes 10-20 years for a large European crisis to unfold this will hit the sweet spot of our demographic problem: A large number of people retiring just at the right time for other European countries to default on their debt. The timing couldn't be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 There is only one sustainable solution that is keeping Greece in the Euro Zone: essentially the United States of Europe. This is not going to happen anytime soon (though I wish it would). Agreed. We really need USoE. Unfortunately, it won't happen soon if at all. I was already amazed with the EU and EuroZone. I guess both of these were helped by good economic times. Bad economy pushes everyone into nationalism and anti-unionistic policies. Personally I think that's the last thing you need! No love lost between Europeans; bottling them all under one system could end badly. Better to go back to individual states, as imperfect as that is. Greece to lead the way! EU has proved that there is some European commonality and potential for united Europe. This is the best direction. We'll have to agree to differ! I don't think such widely varying cultures and languages can be united under one government, especially with a broad history of hatred and violence that makes it so easy for nationalists (whom I hate) to stir sentiment. How does a person govern when 80% of the population can't even understand their speeches? I don't believe in a unified Europe, nor a united currency. There are plenty of successful individual nations, including many of those in the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 If EU falls apart, Europe will become completely irrelevant. Yeah! That’s what everyone keeps repeating… But what do we mean when we say “irrelevant”?... Irrelevant like… Switzerland?... Like Singapore?... Like Hong Kong?... Like The Cayman Islands?... Well, I think in those places people are living much better than in Greece, Spain, or Italy right now! So, who really care if they are “irrelevant”?!... This is what I would suggest: let’s concentrate our efforts and thinking in trying to find new things, products and services, people truly want and need… instead of wasting so much time and resources trying to make this so-called EU work! Gio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petec Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 If EU falls apart, Europe will become completely irrelevant. Yeah! That’s what everyone keeps repeating… But what do we mean when we say “irrelevant”?... Irrelevant like… Switzerland?... Like Singapore?... Like Hong Kong?... Like The Cayman Islands?... Well, I think in those places people are living much better than in Greece, Spain, or Italy right now! So, who really care if they are “irrelevant”?!... This is what I would suggest: let’s concentrate our efforts and thinking in trying to find new things, products and services, people truly want and need… instead of wasting so much time and resources trying to make this so-called EU work! Gio +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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