Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[Gamecock-YT]

3 hours ago, charlieruane said:

Big earthquake in Taiwan. Remember when Buffett cited earthquake risk as a reason for backing out of his investment in TSMC?

 

Sounds like TSMC at the very least had to evacuate a bunch of staff, remains to be seen whether this will cause a material delay in production.

 

wasn't it geopolitical risks? 

[charlieruane]

Geopolitical risk seemed to be Buffett's primary concern, but he did cite "seismic action" once—though now I realize that was in the following CNBC interview, not at an annual meeting: 

 

There’s actually a danger of seismic action, I mean, and where they’re located. But that’s a low probability and they, you know, they’re smart people but would I rather have it, there was a U.S. domicile company than be a subject of who knows what, depending on conditions outside their control?

 

Transcript link.

[zippy1]

1 hour ago, charlieruane said:

Geopolitical risk seemed to be Buffett's primary concern, but he did cite "seismic action" once—though now I realize that was in the following CNBC interview, not at an annual meeting: 

 

There’s actually a danger of seismic action, I mean, and where they’re located. But that’s a low probability and they, you know, they’re smart people but would I rather have it, there was a U.S. domicile company than be a subject of who knows what, depending on conditions outside their control?

 

Transcript link.

He did say that. Although the whole Silicon Valley is in …

[charlieruane]

Good point, ha. But TSMC's fragile machinery being almost entirely concentrated on a major fault line does seem like a problem...

Edited April 4 by charlieruane

[Munger_Disciple]

Fellow Berkshire Groupies,

 

Andy Kilpatrick, who became famous for his massive books on Buffett, apparently became quite rich with Berkshire stock over many decades despite getting a few margin calls along the way. 

Does anyone know more about Andy's Berkshire stock investing? 

[OracleofCarolina]

I have never seen any stories on that, is he still making those books? 

[gfp]

43 minutes ago, OracleofCarolina said:

I have never seen any stories on that, is he still making those books? 

 

I don't think he still makes the books.  He tells some stories about the margin and first BRK share purchase in '83 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6bPl1IXlhs

 

[Munger_Disciple]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

 

I don't think he still makes the books.  He tells some stories about the margin and first BRK share purchase in '83 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6bPl1IXlhs

 

 

Thanks @gfp! I saw this video before; just wondering if there were any additional details. He referred to this in the video as you pointed out:

 

"I've had my setbacks yeah I've done some margin, my wife spends money you know but I still have that original share."

 

Good for Andy, it appears that he was able to survive that margin call & do well. 

Edited April 5 by Munger_Disciple

[John Hjorth]

10 hours ago, OracleofCarolina said:

I have never seen any stories on that, is he still making those books? 

 

10 hours ago, gfp said:

 

I don't think he still makes the books.  He tells some stories about the margin and first BRK share purchase in '83 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6bPl1IXlhs

 

 

I agree with @gfp on this assessment.

 

The time span between each edition was on average a couple of years, give or take, and with some exemptions.

 

The so far last edition of the book was the 2020 Elephant Edition :

 

 

Topic about the book in the CoBF Books forum : Of Permanent Value - Andrew Kilpatrick.

[KPO]

https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=DJCO
 

Looks like the DJC board decided to sell down a portion of all four positions. 

[Hektor]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-geico-progressive-stocks-c03bcdf4

 

A 20% Job Cut at Berkshire’s Geico Highlights Challenge for Car Insurer

The company, formerly one of the fastest-growing big car insurers, has been shrinking in the past two years.

 

Geico reduced its staffing by 20% during 2023, giving up more than a percentage point of market share, as the auto insurer moved to retrench and regain profitability. It is the latest twist in a rivalry among some of the top companies in the car-insurance industry. Geico, formerly one of the fastest-growing big players and the jewel of Berkshire Hathaway ’s vast insurance operations, has been shrinking in the past two years. Its archrival, Progressive, has been expanding profitably and seeing its stock price surge.

 

[schin]

On 4/5/2024 at 4:56 PM, KPO said:

https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=DJCO
 

Looks like the DJC board decided to sell down a portion of all four positions. 

 

When Warren passes, I would expect there will be selling of his prized holdings too.

[gfp]

28 minutes ago, schin said:

 

When Warren passes, I would expect there will be selling of his prized holdings too.

 

I feel like the deferred tax liability will factor in heavily here and that he is spending a huge amount of time talking out these companies with Ted and Todd.  I would be really surprised to see a position like American Express or Coca-Cola messed with after Warren passes.  I could be wrong but my bet is that some of these are truly treated like the rest of the subsidiaries.

 

 

[schin]

15 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

I feel like the deferred tax liability will factor in heavily here and that he is spending a huge amount of time talking out these companies with Ted and Todd.  I would be really surprised to see a position like American Express or Coca-Cola messed with after Warren passes.  I could be wrong but my bet is that some of these are truly treated like the rest of the subsidiaries.

 

If professional sports are good reference points, nobody is sacred. The portfolio will be touched and redeployed. Look at DJCO, I mean.... Wells Fargo and Bank of America is being reduced nonetheless.

 

Whether it's Lou Simpson, Sir John Templeton, Teledyne under Henry Singleton, the position will be touched sadly.

[Munger_Disciple]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

I feel like the deferred tax liability will factor in heavily here and that he is spending a huge amount of time talking out these companies with Ted and Todd.  I would be really surprised to see a position like American Express or Coca-Cola messed with after Warren passes.  I could be wrong but my bet is that some of these are truly treated like the rest of the subsidiaries.

 

 

 

  I don't think it is a coincidence that Warren has recently been talking about Coke, Amex and Japanese trading companies in the annual reports. There is no way Berkshire will sell these post-Buffett. Is there a way Berkshire can distribute the large holdings in-kind to shareholders without incurring any corporate taxes? My guess is no. 

Edited April 8 by Munger_Disciple

[Spooky]

Ya apparently Lou Simpson begged Warren not sell their Nike position when he retired but Warren wasn't comfortable holding someone else's idea.

[charlieruane]

On 4/8/2024 at 10:30 AM, Spooky said:

Ya apparently Lou Simpson begged Warren not sell their Nike position when he retired but Warren wasn't comfortable holding someone else's idea.

 

Fascinating! Mind if I ask where you heard this?

[gfp]

2 hours ago, charlieruane said:

 

Fascinating! Mind if I ask where you heard this?

 

Warren told the story either at an annual meeting or in an interview.  Nike was the example but he had Lou liquidate his entire portfolio before he left.

[Spooky]

11 hours ago, charlieruane said:

 

Fascinating! Mind if I ask where you heard this?

 

Can't remember where I heard this unfortunately but here is an article talking about Buffett inheriting stock positions: https://www.cnbc.com/id/41868643

[Eldad]

Nike has been a great stock. It has always made me uncomfortable as well because it is all based on brand hype. Some good innovation, but mostly branding hype.