BG2008

Since we are a bunch of value conscious investors, I figure that our frugal ways should extend itself over to the way that we spend our dollars as well. Wine is one of those things that I know nothing about and I think there are deep value in it. Anyone has any suggestions to start out?

I belong to a group on Facebook that shares recipes on Instant Pot. It's me and 100,000 other housewives. I cook a lot and grew up in the food business. My takeaway is that Instant Pot would not be the runaway success if Facebook did not exist. The speed that it grew and how quickly features and functions and most importantly recipes are shares is unlike anything that I have seen before. I think a brand like Hamilton Beach is being quickly eroded and becoming irrelevant as the search cost has dropped dramatically. Let's discuss. We can talk about the Peloton as well. Would love to discover other products that have an active FB following as well.

I had a conversation with someone about this recently. By using the 30 years, the results can get weird depending on if you go out 5, 10, or 20 years. As value that goes out further gets discounted less in a 3% scenario. So, you can kind of game the DCF by going out 20 years instead of 5 years. An alternative would be to set the NPV as the current price and look at what the discount rate would be. If you're getting a >15% discount rate by holding the NPV constant, you're probably onto something interesting. If you get a discount rate of >20% if you equate the NPV as the current price, you're likely looking at a very good investment. These things are "Garbage in, Garbage out" So if your assumptions are massively off, then nothing really matters.

To be fair, there are a lot of people in China who kind of just won the lottery and don't have much class or education (I'm Chinese). Yes, DG is very douchey

It's no secret that the Chinese consumer is a huge market for luxury items. Dolce and Gabanna just f'ed up big time with their cringe worthy promo videos. This is a real time public relationships nightmare for a luxury brand trying to win the wallets of the Chinese consumer. Holy F! What were they thinking? I think Dolce and Gabbanna should be renamed "Douche and Goombas" This probably will make the list of the all time top blunders due to cultural insensitivity. That Cannoli was very phallic and they called the chopsticks these little wooden stick like instruments. WTF??? I think people are generally over sensitive in the US. But the bar to offend people is much lower when you are dealing with your customers. It's how they feel what you perceive as appropriate or not.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-credit-crunch-ripples-across-wall-street-1542220488?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 This feels very surreal

LIC/NYC, 5 boroughs in NYC generally get poo pooed on by the value investors for being too expensive. But if you ask the best and the brightest 22 year old who doesn't have the 10, 20, 30 years of wisdom of the CoBF crowd, they would say "just get me to NYC and I will figure it out later"

We had a lively debate here on where Amazon should relocate. We talked about cost, infrastructure, etc. A few here mentioned that Detroit would be great and the U of Mich graduates are just as good as anywhere. At the end of a long process, it looks like Amazon is about to divide up HQ2 into Long Island City, Queens NY and Crystal City, VA. On paper, LIC would be way too expensive. NYC is already too congested. But the city keeps on surprising me. Since the early 2000s, we've had a terrorist attack, the failing of large investment banks (Citi, BoA, AIG, etc), the Trump tax cut was very negative for high end NYC real estate. Living and working in NYC creates such a tax burden, it's kind of crazy. Yet, here we are, Long Island City and Crystal City. Both locations to be confirmed. So much for coastal cities being too expensive and the huge brain drain (for now). I guess companies know this is where the talent is and the talent knows that this is where "it" happens. And the pretty gals knows this is where they can live the Sex and the City lifestyle and meet Mr. Big or a 25 year blonde boy toy. Because those pretty gals are here, the tinder pool expands and the guys flock here knowing that they have lots of attractive mates. Tinder pools are important. I guess perception is important. Yes, Detroit may have all of the necessary tools. But can you really sell a 22 year old Ivy Leaguer on Detroit? Yes, this sounds elitist, but it is also reality. The guys and gals who wind up perfecting AI, self driving cars, quant HF strategies, etc don't want to be in Detroit. I just hope the rumor mills are correct. If Amazon picks Detroit, I will sound like a huge douche. So, apologies ahead if the rumors are false.

Source, Jurgis? [ : - ) ] Source: firsthand experience. I'm not gonna post emails or their contents here. For those of us that don't know what you are referencing to, this is killing us!!

I figure I will get this thread started since the market has been volatile lately. I have a few cheap names. But I don't have a single one that is table pounding for 2019. It's getting awfully close though.

Is that 4x EBITDA, 4x FCF? I'm backing into the numbers and I just don't see the 4x valuation.

The wait part is the same for writing puts or buying positions outright. It is always better waiting for lower prices! What about the premiums that you collected while you wait versus the lower prices that you would've got?? I would not have gotten lower prices. Once I determine where I want to buy a stock it doesn't matter if I write a put at that strike price or put a limit order to buy the stock at that strike price. I own the stock either way at about the same basis. Edit: I didn't know the market was going lower. I was getting put to at prices that I thought were good values, which they eventually were. So if I was going to buy the stock through a limit order I would have done it at the same price as I was being put to. There was a fund that blew up around the 2008/2009 time frame. I think the key difference between you and that fund is that you viewed your position size as the amount that you would be put to as the total margin was only 25% at its peak. He had written puts that were 2-3x his fund's exposure. When he got put to in 2008/2009 and the positions subsequently decline, he was basically carried out on a stretcher.

The wait part is the same for writing puts or buying positions outright. It is always better waiting for lower prices! What about the premiums that you collected while you wait versus the lower prices that you would've got??

Any comments on how things would have worked out differently if you were to hold cash and waited for lower prices than the shares you were put to?

Boiler, Can you share what happened in 2008/2009? I guess you got put to on a lot of positions?

I have a silly amount of student loans that I need to pay off in order to qualify for a mortgage. Arr, such is the life of running your own business. The amount is a few thousand dollars. The interest rate was low and I kept it to help lower my taxable income. I am in the process of qualifying for a mortgage and the underwriting process requires that I pay off the loan to lower my monthly payments given that there is only 1.5 years worth. Navient is my processor and I have been to the website. It doesn't seem like the payoff process is cookie cutter and I have read that the pre-payment process can be kind of tricky. Has anyone had experience? Do I need to call them? These automated processes doesn't make it easier when you need to do something like pay off the entire balance. I have the same question for paying off an car installment payment through Honda Financials. If anyone has experience with this, your help will be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

A $699 Weber grill that will likely last 20 years for the family but also bring a ton of joy and fun for having BBQ with friends and family. It's a lot cheaper to cook at home than eat out in Queens NYC. So, it may wind up saving us money. We've discussing doing meal prep on Sundays by grilling some chicken thighs. I tend to view purchase lately by judging the amount of time saved. Sure I can make a meal at home, but it will take me off course from doing work. If I get Chipotle, it allows me to plow through listening to a conference call etc. I've found that it is more cost effective to pay for the meals. Other discretionary purchases, taking my family out for dinner. It's an Asian communal thing.

Jay Z is known to extract everything he knows from his mentors and then disregard them and move on. He's done it a few times. I've known some talented people like that in the investment business. If you're discussing possibly giving them money to manage, just keep in mind that they may see you as a stepping stone as well. People who have no moral qualms about stealing stuff, forks, plates, etc from fast food joints/restaurants. Stealing is stealing whether it's $5mm or $5 plate from a restaurant. It is not yours. If you're renting a house/apartment to someone and they say they will be back with the deposit. if they don't show, don't give a second chance unless something really extraordinary happened like a car accident. They are already telling how they will be as a tenant, unreliable. A girl who had one asshole boyfriend maybe unlucky. A Girl who has had two asshole boyfriends may or may not have bad luck. A girl who has had three asshole boyfriends or more is actively looking for asshole boyfriends. She's not looking for the nice guy who is going to care and provide for her. People who are so philosophical that they refuse the social norms, such as chipping in $10-20 for a pizza dinner. Because they are so technological progressive and the reason being cash is stupid. Everyone should pay with digital. My view is "F*)* your philosophy, throw in a few bucks and be nice." If you can't be nice, you're likely too Sheldon Cooper for my taste. If your girlfriend/wife cheats once, she'll do it again. I had to explain this concept to a fund manager once. He was involved in a situation where he lied to by CEO once already (assets transfered out of the company). He quoted some book that he read about China. I told him that's the same as your girlfriend cheating on you once. He insisted he won't be wronged again. People post non-stop on Facebook with memes cannot objectively assess a situation. If it's never their fault, never become acquainted with them. If someone has to win every argument, they've got a big ego. If you say "fine, you win. I do not want to argue or fight." and you see the excitement drain from their face. They are not worth your aggravation. The fight and the argument is the glue of your relationship. Unless you want to bath in that toxicity, you're better off ending it. Saying I'm sorry, I messed up, I was wrong, and then correcting their behavior are great traits.

Fatal Risk is good. It's about how AIG went under. It gives good back story to the financial crisis.

OMG...that's like soooo 2016 (in Kim K's voice)

Since no one mentioned this, I thought that "Rich Dad Poor Dad" was a good book even for me in my 20s. Yes, the guy made up stories. Munger said that even bad people can say some really helpful things. The author really stressed the concept of assets and owning them. He goes into the concept of owning your own home and how one can get into trouble thinking you own an asset when you really have a liability.

Is there a way to generate a Tax Lot Report in IB? There is a tax optimizer that shows the tax lots for existing positions. But is there a report generator for tax lots for realized positions? Thanks.

I second people's suggestion that you should write up your best ideas and share it with people. This process is difficult but certainly doable. My suggestions are: 1) Don't do a MBA because it cost a lot of money and it is more to train people for traditional roles 2) If you are young (younger than 35) and do not have a ton of debt or dependents and you are willing to live frugally for a while, you have lots of options 3) I would recommend that you go to some combination of Daily Journal, Berkshire Hathaway, Fairfax, Leucadia, shareholder meetings etc 4) Have 2-4 ideas that are your highest conviction and well research. Even better if you have at least 20-30% of your networth invested in them. 5) Tell people about them in your conversation during these meetings. Like someone else said earlier, good investment ideas are like currency in this business. What it also does is create conversation rather than filler material like "how are you? What's the weather like?" If you can say "X is a good investment, trades at 5x EBITDA for a 10x business, the market cap is 1.5x of EBITDA, natural deleveraging, good CEO, and will be a 3-5 bagger if held for 5 years. Here is the reason why the market is missing the data point. Complete turnover of investor base. etc" The latter is a much more interesting conversation. Make sure you cover the important stuff such as "why is it cheap, what's the rest of the market missing, is it hidden? Wrong investor base?" 5b) It's harder to pitch ideas like Apple, JPM, etc. I think $100mm to $5bn companies are targets where you can actually demonstrate skills. 6) Figure out who you really admire and reach out to them 6b) Go to value investing meetups in Boston and keep in touch with people 7) Keep re-iterating 3-7 and you will likely land something soon

Thanks for the list LC. It's funny how many similarities there are between Italians and Asian families. Both cultures get it when it comes to food. I was going to buy a dozen of roses for my wife and she yelled at me and told me that's a five guy burger and a side of fries there. And she's like 120 pounds. We don't bat an eye for buying $200-300 worth of groceries for the week. The other interesting observation of Asians and Italians is the way we eat. Most of the time, people order their own food and eat off their own plate. Italian and Asian cultures place all the food in the middle of the table and people share it together. The communal element is strong. I wonder how much of that extends to people's personalities and how they behave. Let's not forget the massive amount of shellfish that we eat. My best friend's wife is Italian and we went to their house for Christmas eve fish dinner. It was an awesome experience with octopus salad, lobster tails, crab legs, baked clams. Out of all of that, the baked clams made by the father is the best dish. Btw, Clinton Baking Factory is the best brunch spot in NYC imo. Does it feel weird paying $70-100 for two people to have eggs, pancakes, and coffee? At high level, yes, very weird. But it's worth the 1-2 hour wait.

So what are those 1 and 2 stars that are fighting for their stars?