BG2008

Baby boomers moving out of their palatial 3,000 to 4,000 sqft homes and electing to live in high end multi-family rentals or condos in city centers with lots of amenities

This is a great list

I don't think enough people are paying attention to this. You need to look at the segment info not the consolidated info. I should keep my mouth shut as I am looking to buy more if they announce sale of the Montana refinery.

Great advice for the singles here, my wife told me we need a 7 seater so that we only take one car when we go out with her family. Somethings in life is not worth fighting over. Acura MDX it is. The overlook risk of a bike is a crash. Yeah, I did a mid air tuck-and-roll in Central Park 12 years ago on a warm Thursday night. My helmet was crack which meant that my skull wasn't. I haven't had the same urg to get on a bike since.

I have "door envy" and I still live like a college freshman in an apartment building.

AM has done much better than I expected. I think the AR/AM fee reduction deal stopped a lot of the year end tax loss harvesting activity. I agree with Gregmal that coal is tough. Or at least coal in the US.

AM has worked much better than I could've imagined in the last few days. I bought an initial lot at $7 and then bought a bunch more at $5.25 when they announced the AR/AM deal at a 23% yield. At one point AM traded at a 4-5% yield. Of course, that was a unsustainable price.

I think restaurants are kind of like sports team. The New England Patriots just finds a way to win and the Cleveland Browns just can't get their act together. McDonald's for whatever reason is kind of like the NE Patriots. Culture is a real thing. My interns are sick and tired of me talking about how my HS wrestling team went undefeated my senior year. Yes, I am living in my glory days. But what I am trying to get at is that there was a change in regime. We had a new coach who came in and got us to buy into the system. We had 7-8 coaches where half of them were grown men volunteering when they could be working overtime. It is telling you a ton about the people involve and frankly the sacrifices that they made. They bought us hundreds of dollars of free dinners on Thursday nights so that we can build team chemistry. We use to eat like 30 boxes of pizza for dinner. (edit: this was for the football team, during wrestling season, our diet was 3 ice cubes and 4 oz of apple juice. Nothing ever tasted so good!) A successful restaurant is likely a place where everyone knows their role and there is pride in what they do. They is a common core value. This is likely the case for every business. Not having power hungry assh@les are really important in businesses like this. If you want to run a successful restaurant, whether it is physical or cloud kitchen, you likely have to be a good coach who is dealing with employees who aren't the most motivated. It's hard to convince 16-17 years to run full speed at someone and hit them with all their might. This is probably the equivalent of asking a high school drop out to show up on time, not smoke too much weed, and get the orders right. I'm not trying to be condescending, I am trying to be realistic.

While you are using fancy terms to describe this and while you're dreaming up a big business this has been done in the past. You are essentially describing a Domino's Pizza. If you study Domino's success factors it's really speed of delivery. To make that happen it has to operate in a small radius. The moment it becomes big it doesn't work as well anymore. Yes, I am very much aware of that. The delivery radius is somewhat limited to about 3-4 miles, and time and miles driven is at a premium. And you are right, Dominoes has been doing this for a long time. HOWEVER, Dominoes has an incredibly limited menu and some people would also argue that they have limited food quality also. DTEJD1997, Sometimes offering great products and great convenience for your customers isn't such a great business. From time to time, I kind of fancy myself as the next David Chang and think about what kind of concepts I would come up with. Cloud kitchens have zero moat, especially for guys like you and me. When you have Mr. Son's play money, it's a different paradigm. I think Dominoes work so well because stoned out teenagers can run their businesses.

As follows 1br $1600-1700(towards the lower end you can take your pick of high quality tenants with 700+ credit scores), HOA $330-$350, taxes ~$4700, market value currently ~$160K per(pre 2008 sales where mid 200s) 2br $2200-2400(same as above wrt tenant quality) HOA $400 or so, taxes $6500, market value currently around $250-270k (pre 2008 300s) Here's the reason those numbers work though.. theres ZERO market for $3000 per month and up rentals here. So under $2500 and especially $2000 per month is super competitive. This is just a specific community I have multiple properties in, but by and large those numbers are in the ballpark for what I look for. Again I would reiterate that the way I am investing in the stock market, I need to be consumed by it and its heavily taxing mentally. So with these, Im not looking to have ridiculous returns, but simply have something simple that takes care of itself and does better than the passive 3-5% I'd get elsewhere putting in no effort. I also try to stay disciplined and avoid concentration risk. I'd like to get a few mil face value of properties; ie something that spits off a decent chunk of cashflow, but also something that is reasonable enough in size to offload to a local HNW investor if I ever wanted liquidity and found selling more attractive than the alternatives. What kind of levered cash yield are you getting including amortization? What kind of LTV do you get? What is reasonable long term appreciation? The rents you mentioned are actually in line with Queens NYC which I am kind of surprised by. What's the time to rent after a tenant vacate? I just rented one of my units in less than 10 days. I have heard stories of very high yields in suburbs but you run into issues with renting to a specific group of renters, i.e. college students and very compressed windows to find tenants. You don't get good yields in Queens from day one, but the long term price appreciation tend to be excellent. When levered 70-80%, the long term IRR are quite good.

Honestly, wrong forum. People doing scale up businesses don't hang out here (with very few exceptions). I beg to differ. I think things have changed. I know of a few people who are both value investors and heavily utilize Instagram and Social Media to grow and promote their businesses whether it is selling products or selling subscription. I think most CoB guys are a bit too "old school" to realize that social media has lowered the barrier to entry in a very meaningful way. I know of ice cream people who use Instagram to heavily promote all natural ingredients and they have done very well.

No one doing an Instagram/Social Media scale up?

Lots of year end tax loss harvesting. I think AM suffered from this until they recently agreed to reduce fees to AR. I'm probably not a long term holder of this. If Nat Gas prices spike up, you should just get out and take your money. I think we get about 2 years to see a spike in nat gas. In a BK scenario, I think AM's assets are still needed as it is critical infrastructure. I'm a big believer that the only way to own O&G assets is via debt, MLP, or a midstream asset. You can't leave the capital to be re-invested.

Antero Midstream Corp - Pays $1.23 per share and trades at $5.85 for a juicy 21% yield. They just gave some concession to Antero Resources. AR is hedged for 2020 and 2021. So no BK till 2022. Should get 9 quarters which amounts to $2.77 which is 47% of your cost. AM is basically the bond in AR. AR bonds trade at 8.4-11% yield. So you pick up 11% more in yield. AM bonds are trading at 7.6 to 8.2% yield.

They should have paid the drivers in Uber-Crypto Medallions

This is awesome. Thanks for posting this.

During the time that Denny Meyer's operated in NYC, retail rent has gone through the roof. When you sign a restaurant lease from 10-20 years ago in NYC, it becomes a huge asset. That's why you see people simply closing up shop when their lease run out in NYC despite having booming sales.

If you were to start a business today, what would it be? Or just broad strategies?

Thanks for reminding me that TAST has year end tax loss selling dynamics.

2019 vintage is not as good as 2018 vintage for year end tax loss harvesting, but I'll try E&P in general - Antero Resources and Antero Midstream DuPont - Maybe? IDW Media Anyone notice any indiscriminate year end loss harvesting trading? Last year, Calumet experienced the most dramatic year end loss harvesting activity

I think DuPont falls into this category. The Dow/DuPont tie up and subsequent separation is playing out. Specialty chemicals stock prices in general has been very weak this year with volume down 1-3% across the board. This is a 35% return on capital business trading at 10.5x 2020 P/FCF after adjusting for $3bn of share buybacks in 2019 and 2020. This is DuPont's specialty business, think almost 30% EBITDA margin businesses that should grow GDP plus 2 once we get back on growth again. In growth years, they can trade to 20-25x P/FCF. If we go out 2-3 years and they keep buying back shares or start divesting units. DD starts to trend down to 9x P/FCF.

Spek, you've traded DD and CTVA better than anyone that I know

He's a collector. Like an old stuffy guy who collects model trains or Picassos except he collects real railroads etc. He's not going to split it up. I'll bet that the 331,000 share price is a reminder that it once traded at $7 or something for that crappy textile company. Still a great guy and can't thank him enough.

Aren't most of the S&P 500 going to be around? I bet that 50% of them will still be in the index. On average, there is a 4.4% change to the index each year according to this article https://www.businessinsider.com/sp-500-index-constituent-turnover-2015-6

Calumet - Deleveraging specialty chemicals business with short term catalyst to sell fuel refinery and get back to specialty chemical business. $237mm of market cap and $1.2bn of net debt. Debt paydown is about $100mm a year. Overall firm EBITDA is about $300mm. Selling fuel refinery will likely get net debt down to about $600-650mm by year end 2020. MLP structure. Nobody wants any of that. Specialty chemical business is quite good. Stable recurring business. Levered FCF yield is something like 35%. This is a MLP structure and you will get a K-1. No natural shareholder base. If you go out 4-5 years and if they did nothing but pay down debt, you are likely buying the business at 2x earnings of a pretty good specialty chem business in a MLP structure. This name is hated as they are paying for the sins of their past. This isn't a traditional compounder, the 15% 10 year upside comes from a levered situation and the 1.5-2x P/FCF looking 4-5 years out when the right price is likely 15x P/FCF. HHC - Won't go into the details. But it's cheap. Ashtead - Network density play. Look at the historical track record. It's a duopoly between Sunbelt and United Rental (20%) versus lots of mom and pops. Only 12x P/FCF. Growing EPS 15- 20% every year through organic and acquisitions. They will take share from mom and pop. Rentals vs buys is experiencing structural improvements. Con is that it's volatile and no one wants to own something that is economic sensitive at the tail end of a cycle. UK listed but 9% of business in US. They have better software than the mom and pops. They can send salesman into a job with a iPad app and close deals and customer can use apps to request for service. They have 20-30 locations in a geographic area so they are more likely to have the equipment in stock when a customer want it. Scale gives them purchasing power. I estimate that it is at least 30% cheaper than what a customer can buy at. They are really outsourced equipment leasing for their customers. Contractors don't want their employees using ladders taller than 6 feet. Contractors want someone else keeping good records in case there is a fire etc. At scale they can service and maintain the equipment better. They also act as a logistic arm for contractors. If you buy your own equipment, you have to store it somewhere and allocate an employee to tracking it and moving it around. It's a growing EaaS company (Equipment as a Service) company trading at an unassuming low teens P/FCF. The EaaS comment is a bit tongue in cheek.