BG2008

Genome sequencing and vaccine development is better. I actually don't know how much. But the appropriate reaction to this virus is to quarantine 60mm ppl in China. Think about it for a moment. Regardless of the advancement in genome sequencing etc, if you shut down 60mm people, the economy screeches to a halt. And it trickles back to the US and the rest of the world.

I think you have to stop comparing Corona Virus to SARS. The world was not as integrated and China was not as large % of the world's GDP back then. Just saying.

Really? That's awesome in a weird way.

I want to bump this. Since I started running a fund, I work mostly from home. This means that I took out 7,000 steps that I normally would get by walking around in NYC. Over the years, this reduction of 7,000 to 10,000 steps translated into 5-10 pounds of weight gain a year. A friend casually told me about intermittent fasting. Just eat in an 8 hour window. It was tough for 2-3 days, but then my body got used to not eating for 16 hours. It didn't matter what I was eating. It did wonders. I no longer get hangry and I started losing a little bit of weight. Then I started to cut out sugar and carbs. In a year, I lost something like 45 pounds without really exercising. Now I actually crave the fasted state where I am more alert. Try it. Just cut out sugar and all that processed food.

Somewhat unrelated, one of the benefits of having a surveillance state is that criminals are more hesitant to commit crime. When I went back a couple years ago, people mentioned that robberies and theft have gone down quite a bit since they installed cameras everywhere. Of course, the US news sources will only report the emergence of a police state and not the fact that most everyday citizens enjoy the fact that they can catch child abductors and robbers rather quickly. Not that I would want to live there, but there is a some benefits to having a police state.

Muscleman and other with family who are affected by the Coronavirus. I apologize for my potential business-like comment. I have tried my best to avoid infection and this thread has been very informative. In the meantime, I have monetized some of the information here towards my trading. We now literally have a press release from one of my portfolio companies talking about increasing non-woven materials production for the use in masks and suits in China. Berry Global Increases Production to Aid in Coronavirus Protection https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200131005586/en/Berry-Global-Increases-Production-Aid-Coronavirus-Protection It's a bizarre world we live in. I think there will be many more corporate headlines coming soon.... I hope everyone feel better

BTW, the Chinese government forbids discussion of Corona Virus on WeChat. I have noticed a lot of information flow has died down.

Hyten, I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012. I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground. Shanghai is a pretty much a ghost town now. No one goes downstairs from their apartment. You can call that heresay. But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town. The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left. That's a fact. I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan. It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD. Most of the population can't afford that. There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs. Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures. Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine? If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this? To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit. Hyten, Perhaps my reaction to you is due to knowing this HF analyst at a large fund. He tends to moderate the conversation and he would literally pound the table and ask for facts. So, I might've had an image of him when I typed that. I promise you I am a pretty civil person. The right way to react is probably somewhere in between. Actually, thanks for Muscleman's information, I actually started buying some puts in CAT, Prologis (sector hedge), Royal Carribean (Does anyone want to cruise now? There is a ship with 6,000 people stranded on it), etc. My wife was very cagey about not letting me travel because of chatter on WeChat about Corona Virus. I hedged out my risk in DD with some $47.50 puts (more for macor than earnings reason). I did all of this on Monday. Today, I bought some SPY put spreads that pay out 8.3x if the SPY goes down 15% from here. Probably over reaction on my part. But I like to hedge my portfolio and have dry powder ready. In a way, Muscleman's anecdotes actually created a ton of information edge. I wish my daughter didn't need a pediatrician visit yesterday. I probably would've sat down to buy more puts. In a unforeseen twist of fate, being Chinese and being able to read Chinese and watch Chinese video became an edge. But I would've never caught onto this if this thread did not exist. Thank you everyone for the conversation. I actually think that Boeing is probably a good short here. Still has issues with the MAX and now US airlines won't fly to China. Seems richly valued at 18x FCF or whatever.

Hyten, I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012. I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground. Shanghai is a pretty much a ghost town now. No one goes downstairs from their apartment. You can call that heresay. But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town. The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left. That's a fact. I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan. It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD. Most of the population can't afford that. There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs. Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures. Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine? If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this? To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit. I don't disagree that both patient and death numbers are probably much higher in Wuhan/Hubei area. China has under invested in healthcare infrastructure over the years. So resources are already stretched under normal condition. Now imagine there are suddenly 10 times more patients waiting in line to be checked out. That said, there is no incentive for areas outside Wuhan/Hubei to under report numbers. Yes, people all over China are staying at home and not going to public space. And local governments everywhere are announcing extreme measures, such as mandatory face mask wearing in public places and canceling events, to counter the outbreak. But outside Wuhan/Hubei, I haven't seen concrete evidences contradicting opinions of medical experts in the west that the virus break is similar to flu in terms of contagiousness and death threat. Maybe wait 2 weeks? The FACTs can wait till we get more clarity. No need to be a hero on both sides. I am avoiding subways in NYC for now.

Hyten, I think you are thinking about this matter a little bit too much in the ways like a value investors who invested with Chinese RTOs in the 2011 to 2012. I have been following Chinese WeChat and talking to people on the ground. Shanghai is a pretty much a ghost town now. No one goes downstairs from their apartment. You can call that heresay. But I tend to trust my wife's friend who works for a biotech company in the US who has a PhD that it is a ghost town. The facts are that they quarantine an area that has the population of New YOrk City, LA, and Chicago and still has 10mm pop left. That's a fact. I am not surprised at all if there were 100k infected in WuHan. It's $10k RMB to stay at an ICU in China. So $1.6k USD. Most of the population can't afford that. There are definitely a lot more infection and death than the numbers that are official. Talk to a value investor in the western world, they pound the table and say "Don't fear monger, give me the facts." Talk to any Chinese person (wife and I are both Chinese) and we just know that the numbers are way more serious than the official stats. People have mentioned that the cause of death on certificates are often Pneumonia not Corona Virus despite the doctors telling family that it was definitely Corona virus. Why do you think the Chinese government is willing to shut down such large portion of its GDP? Don't be so dogmatic with the numbers and FACTs. Learn to be a bit flexible with it and bake in a large range of potential figures. Both the death rate and the infection rates are likely much larger. Invert the think, if the infectiousness isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to quarantine? If the death rate isn't bad, will the Chinese government go to such length to attack this? To a certain extent, the reactions are likely over blown at this point, discount the seriousness by 50% and it is stil pretty bad. Yes, the death figure lags by quite a bit.

Exactly, it's a hedge for someone like Cenovus. Yes, 25k isn't enough. But you're giving up $20-22 a barrel to the rail, do you not consider even small solutions? "We have 50 percent ownership in two U.S. refineries – Wood River, located in Roxana, Illinois, and Borger, located in Borger, Texas – that are part of our joint venture with Phillips 66, the operator. Ownership in these two refineries reduces the risk of price fluctuations in the oil market, by allowing us to capture value from the production of oil through to the output of finished products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Essentially, we shift from being just a producer of heavy crude oil to being a producer of higher-value finished products. This helps to reduce our risk and balance out the volatility in our business. In 2017, the two refineries processed a combined average of 442,000 barrels of oil per day gross, compared with 444,000 barrels of oil per day gross the year before." So these are effectively 100k barrels a day each for Cenovus due to their 50% ownership. The advantage of Great Falls, Montana is that it is just across the border from Canada. By the time you get that crude to TX, the railroad has already extracted their $20 a barrel. You get the crude to Great Fall Montana and it saves you the rail fare from Montana to Texas.

We are dinosaurs. Value investors are weird creatures. There's this guy who hides out in his office in Omaha reading 10-Ks. Can you believe that guy?

BG - I, too, like CLMT and would love for it to trade at $20-$30 ;D but will probably start selling around $15. I like the new CEO, love the fact that they currently have pessimistic shareholder base, and lack distribution/dividend. Our math is about the same other than the sale price of Montana refinery which is impacting my valuations. Would love to learn the basis of estimate for $500M sale tag as I think they will be lucky to get $300M with my range being $220 to $375M. My reasoning is that $100M of earnings that comes from fuel segment come from between Shreveport (60k bpd with non-fuel production) and Montana (25k bpd exclusively fuel production). The other two refineries don't make fuels. Shreveport facility capacities are 16k bpd for naptha, 6.5k bpd for asphalt and road oil, 12.5k for lubricants, incidentally making it a 25k bpd fuel refinery. Back of the envelope calculations, crack spread for Montanta is 3x crack spread in Shreveport. So on a good day (WCS will not stay this depressed), I attribute $75M to Montana refinery. At 5x EBIDTA, that's $375M. Couple it with this https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-refiner-sales/u-s-refinery-sales-hit-the-brakes-with-5-of-capacity-on-block-idUSKBN1Z90GN and you probably have to discount the $375M number...a lot. Reference for capacity numbers: http://www.dnr.louisiana.gov/assets/TAD/reports/refinery_survey/RefineryReport_2017.pdf (Tables 14 and 15) Another way to arrive to valuations: Montana is a 25k bpd capacity refinery and is about the same size as San Antonio refinery (21k bpd) which CLMT unloaded for $65M. Montant is 3x more profitable, so $65M*3 = $205M. Info, A lot of my valuation framework comes from following the company closely and talking to management team and parsing through their quarterly calls. The delta between your numbers and mine is largely due to a couple things. First, I think Montana is doing $100mm of EBITDA. So at 5x, it is going for $500mm. Second, they have said on the calls multiple times that if they sell Montana, they will de-lever below 3x pretty quickly. So, if they are at $1.2bn net debt at year end 2019 with roughly $300mm of EBITDA which puts them at 4x. They have referenced a 4.2x figure. Now Q4 of 2018 was a windfall. So netting $500mm of proceeds and taking away $100mm of EBITDA and paying debt down by $100mm in 2020 puts the leverage at roughly 3x to $600mm of net debt and $200mm of specialty EBITDA. Third, I have been to a lot of meetings hosted by I Banks and their recent 11% debt offering. On the debt side, people ask a lot of questions. Someone at one point even referenced that the $100mm secured loan on the Montana refinery puts it at 50% LTV, that means Montana is only worth $200mm. They have quelled those concerns and mentioned that people should not read too much into. At one point someone might have referenced a $400mm figure and they had a look of "no way, we will sell for that little." Let's call it tea leave reading. Looking at this as a FCF play. $100mm of EBITDA and likely $30mm of Cap Ex a year, this is $70mm of FCF. $500mm puts it at 7.1x P/FCF. The key here is that there is a $20-22 spread between WCS/WTI. This figure largely reflect the cost of getting a barrel of oil out of Canada to the US Gulf Coast. Montana captures that value. I think the Great Falls property makes a lot of sense for a Canadian Tar Sand producer. It will actual as a natural hedge with the takeaway capacity. If new takeaway capacity comes online, the refinery loses value but they make money on the oil production. If takeaway capacity continues to be an issue, the Montana facility winds up capturing that rail economic. Management has consistently said that the longer time elapsed, the more likely they are to sell the Montana refinery. As the debt to EBITDA ratio continues to trend downward, they can afford to take a lower price to de-lever the balance sheet. I don't fully understand the impact of IMO 2020. But management has consistently stated that it will benefit them due to their ability to process the high sulfur crude. There are different components that involves VGOs and etc that is a bit above my pay grade. Some products gets lower pricing, some products gets higher, but overall, it's a positive for Calumet's Montana facility. This name requires patience and nothing will happen for another 2-3 years until to turn on the distribution or if they convert into a C Corp today. But the value keeps getting shifted from the debt side to the equity every year that they pay down the debt. Perhaps, we should start a Calumet thread on its own.

Do you mind sharing what type of work you do? This is kind of my anecdotal survey of the trends in the office space. If companies decide at some point to go back to cubicles to increase productivity, it could be interesting for the office sector.

WeWork's open office layout is all the rage. But there is some grumbling that it is not conducive to productivity. I would love to hear inputs from the board here. Thanks in advance.

There is an area of simplistic long term compounding that we have not really discuss in detail on this thread. After the Great Recession, I was looking at a lot of net-net ish type companies trading at 6x FCF. Cybex was one such company where it was a net-net and the operating business was trading for 6x FCF for free. My focus was on a few of these and it was harder to determine how a company like Cybex would compete in a rather fragmented gym equipment manufacturer market. Cybex was a net-net because they had a lawsuit where a trainer crushed herself and the liability was potentially the entire EV of the company. But they settled for $20-25mm and the company had reserved that amount already. Price run up and the remainco was a net-net with a free operating business. Somehow I still didn't pul the trigger after talking to management as they sounded kind of pessimistic with the macro. Of course they did a MBO at a 90+% premium with a month. That was where my focus was. In the meantime, the US large caps were consistently trading at 10xFCF. In comparison, a 10x FCF versus a net net with a free operating business, as a younger value investor, it was no brainer to look at the net-net with a free biz. In hindsight, the 10x FCF large cap with moat was paying you a 3% dividend and buying back 7% of the shares out standing. It was also growing 4-6% organically each year. This same pattern went on for many years. So, every share that got bought back in 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 became extremely accretive as the market eventually valued them at 25x FCF. Is 25X FCF the appropriate multiple? Not sure. The simplistic multi-bagger were sitting right in front of us back in 10, 11, 12. It's always very obvious in hindsight. Let's say that the right P/FCF is 15-18x, the share buybacks in 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 at 10-12x FCF is still extremely accretive especially combined with 4-6% organic growth. If you are hunting for 3 baggers in 5 years, perhaps the easier targets are the 10x P/FCF with 4-6% organic growth with dividends and share buybacks. You don't need 100 bagger heroics. One thing that I have come to appreciate is that $5bn companies tend to have structural moats that is much easier to recognize such as Berry and DuPont. You can readily see it in the margins. Their FCF is also quite real and you are literally getting paid each year via dividends and sharebuybacks. If the stocks trades to 7x FCF, you can back the truck up and buy a boatload more. Perhaps it was inexperience coupled with living through 08-09 when companies like Fortune Brands, Home Depot, CableCo, VF Corp etc all trading to mid Single Digit trough P/FCF that I was a bit shellshock. I winded up gravitating to companies with large B/S protection. My age is also a bit interesting in that I was in HS when the dot com bubble was in full blown and I was 28 when the Great Recession hit. So that was two dramatic cycles in 10 years. Over the years, I have come to appreciate that good long term returns require the proper leverage. Howard Hughes won't work without some non-recourse leverage at the operating asset portfolio. A multi-family portfolio with 20% LTV isn't going to work well in the long run. I am not saying this is the truth or the absolute best way to look for multi-baggers. But it is likely a simple area to hunt that tends to be overlooked.

Pedro, Great notes and this is exactly the kind of discussion that I was hoping for! As the official moderator, I declare this thread officially a success because it convinced a long time listener to pluck down the dollars to become a member!

What does Lyft has to be with this thread? I'm designating myself as the official moderator for this thread so that it doesn't morph into something else. I was sincerely wondering if Lyft might be a company that matches this thread's title. It seems that this thread's title should be changed to "Multi-Bagger Opportunities With Realistic Positive Outcomes According to BG2008" Please carry on. I'm not gonna defend Lyft or its possible candidacy into future multibagger club. Some arguments pro and con can be found on Uber thread https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/uber-uber-technologies/ . I'm getting T-Shirts Made As We speak I'm happy that my post has suggested multi-bagger opportunity for your business. Although for environmental reasons, please send multiple T-Shirts in a single bag. You can thank me later. ;D I will tie it neatly with hemp twine that will naturally decompose

What does Lyft has to be with this thread? I'm designating myself as the official moderator for this thread so that it doesn't morph into something else. I was sincerely wondering if Lyft might be a company that matches this thread's title. It seems that this thread's title should be changed to "Multi-Bagger Opportunities With Realistic Positive Outcomes According to BG2008" Please carry on. I'm not gonna defend Lyft or its possible candidacy into future multibagger club. Some arguments pro and con can be found on Uber thread https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/uber-uber-technologies/ . I'm getting T-Shirts Made As We speak

What does Lyft has to be with this thread? I'm designating myself as the official moderator for this thread so that it doesn't morph into something else.

This may be true, but everyone involved in this game pretty much have to stomach the risk. To me, it's certainly not for everyone. principal major risk I see with banks is another LTCM-type blowup. some think that the recent issue in the repo market was caused by credit hedge funds massively leveraging to squeeze profits out of a bps in arbitrage (just like LTCM), and the fed had to preemptively add liquidity to prevent a squeeze which could have caused a liquidation cascade. assuming the fed is willing to continue to protect the banks by injecting liquidity (and also thereby protecting the hedge funds), the banks should do well...but I dont see a multi bagger unless you are willing to buy a leveraged ETF or use leverage yourself Comment was more about the past, post 2009, rather than the future. I recently transacted in mortgages, man the underwriting is so much more rigorous these days.

Okay, I am going to crack the whip and get this thread back to shape. The goal of this thread is to identify patterns that lead to multi-bagger opportunities. I would define them as 4x or more in a decade. That gives us a roughly 15% CAGR over 10 years. This is roughly a 5% alpha over the S&P in the long run. I think it is appropriate to think this way because there are good ideals that are also very safe. But they tend to be under written to a lower CAGR, i.e. LAACO. I think anything this a potential 4x in 5 years falls into this category. Heico was just profiled in Forbes recently https://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambrown/2020/01/13/heico-mendelson/#4c6734984b18 Maybe this is survivorship bias, but it seems that Aviation parts is a very good business and the remaining survivors tend to do very well. The often listed reason is that all parts require FAA approval which acts as a barrier to entry. Harping on the barrier to entry theme, I keep hearing, seeing, and witnessing themes that makes certain businesses "work" and certain "not work." High switching cost, long approval time, scale, cost advantages, stable pricing (non-commodities, even if you are the lowest cost producer, if prices drop 50%, you are still kind of screwed), high incremental margins that falls to the bottom line. I hope this turns into a wonderful thread where we can dissect the anatomy that turns an investment into a multi-bagger. Apparently, Berry Global has compounded in excess of 20% for all its PE owners in the past. Why does what seems like commoditized plastic packaging have such high returns? I think it is a combination of more organic growth earlier in their ownership, stable end market demand, stable margins (although, smaller guys tend to get abuse by the suppliers a bit). It is a sucessful private and public LBO. Despite all the noise about ending plastic use, it is very hard to ween one off the use of plastic. Imagine if you no longer buys OJ or Yogurt in plastic containers? What can replace the usefulness of shrink wrap to prolong food? Berry in its current form has a very distinct cost advantage due to its scale. They constantly take out 500bps of cost post deal due to scale, better operations, better pricing when buying resin. The math works something like this $100mm EBITDA company pre-deeal with $40mm of Cap Ex equates to $60mm EBITDA-CapEx Post deal $150mm EBITDA company with $40mm of Cap Ex equates to $90mm of EBITDA-CapEx Post deal, the company is a much lower capital intensity business and results in higher ROIC. Even though Berry has to constantly pay for acquisitions to grow and you will see the cashflow used in investing go out the door every year, but it is resulting in higher EBITDA and higher EBITDA-CapEx over time. Years ago, a wise man told me about Ting and TuCows and I ignored it. Another way that multi-baggers get created is a combination of 1) New products that could scale offer multi-bagger opportunities. 2) CEOs who aggressively buy back shares when it is cheap. I am trying to broaden my mind on this.

Seems like the letter is working. I might've smelled a bit of weed last night, but it seems like they are staying further away from the building. It wasn't a constant 2 hours of hot boxing it was before. It has been a week and it seems like things are better.

Guys, I think there are enough Midstreams that are trading at distressed prices. If you are looking at Energy, look for ways to get paid in the interim. Many of these MLPs used to be valued at 4-6% yield. Now they are high quality one that are valued at 7-10% and the more trailer types paying mid teens. You get the distribution and an optionality that it re-rates to a 6% yield. If oil goes to $100, you probably do better owning the E&P. IMHO, E&P are uninvestable, yes, likely "famous last words." But I have never owned an E&P ever. That rule has applied for the last decade of my investing.

BG - is there a lot of effort involved with 1031? I thought it was just a form to be signed by the buyer. I've seen a few of those contingencies in listings but nothing we've put a bid on had that stipulation. Depends on from who's perspective. From the seller perspective, you have a gun to your head where you have to identify 3 property within 45 days of selling your property and then close within 180 days. From the buyer perspective (my situation), we jumped through hoops to get all the paperwork lined up and the seller wanted to wait another 3 weeks to close because he needs time to identify a 1031 property to exchange into. This is where my agent worked her magic and just badgered him into agreeing to close within a week. My wife and I just about flipped out when we found out the seller wanted to close in mid Feb. You then run into issues with the bank with rate locks and them asking for more financials. My understanding is that you typically have to wait 2 years after declaring your property is no longer your primary residence for it to qualify for 1031. Someone smarter can verify this.