oddballstocks

I would love to know what world buying a dollar for fifty cents wouldn't work in. If you buy something of real ascertainable value at a discount and have the ability to resell it at full value you will do well no matter what market condition, this is what value investing is.

I've used this site in the past it has a ton of data on income securities: http://www.quantumonline.com/ Preferreds, convertables, odd income securities, MLPs etc all there. I believe you need to create a user name to access the data but everything is free.

I'm finding a lot of values in Europe as well right now, similar things to Moore. I dug through Portuguese companies a few months back and ended up purchasing two. One of them does almost all of their business outside of Portugal the other 80% is local but the work is less elastic. I need to look through again, I believe the market P/E is around 5, the country isn't going to disappear and a lot of the companies are very export oriented so the risk isn't concentrated 100% in Portugal. Some European valuations are just crazy low right now. I took a look at CA:FP before the Dia spin but decided to wait. I think the European telecoms are probably a pretty safe bet, people aren't going to give up their cell phones, the expense is low enough that most people can find $30 or $40 a month to pay. I own America Movil, I need to take a look at Telefonica. I believe TEF owns the other side of the Latin American phone oligopoly along with America Movil, I guess I'd own a monopoly position at that point.. This is a great thread, I'd love to see some other European ideas people have.

Thanks! Very interesting read. I must buy similar companies to him, I have a Japan net-net basket and I'm finding a lot of value over in Europe.

This seems to make sense if you are passively indexing, but I'm not sure what I would do with this information considering my portfolio is 100% equity and has ranged between 3-9 stocks so far (I'm Mungerian that way)... My recollection of Swensen is that he's a hero of the indexing crowd and that groups like the Bogleheads love him. I could be remembering wrong, but he's kind of the patron saint of those who manage large pension funds, endowments, etc. for moving away from generally a strictly fixed income portfolio and small "blue chip" bucket to include other major asset classes. I don't recall whether he strictly is a passive investor through indexes and the like, but I believe he is. Could be wrong about that. His views have generally been taken by this crowd to fall into the when one asset class is down another is up and what do you care as you've got them all covered! Yeah, I didn't like his book for individual investors. If you know what you are doing as an individual investor, put your eggs all in one (maybe three or four?) basket and then watch that basket! One basket!?!?! Unless it was my own company and I knew everything there was to know about it I could never do that, there are too many aspects and moving parts I just wouldn't feel comfortable with. Are you a director or executive with the company you have your position in?

care to share what your google search was? How about the obvious one "Margin of Safety pdf", I googled it and the first two hits had links to the book in a pdf format. Did you try searching at all?

I find that I'm most comfortable with #1 or #2. I prefer net-net investing, I as well have limited time (job, kid etc) and it's easy to just skim a filing for a net-net and determine if I want to look further or pass. I can do this during downtime moments pretty quickly. Eventually I'll find something worth a closer look. The biggest reason I like net-net's is the margin of safety, if I can invest for less than liquidation value in a company with positive operating cash flow I feel like that's the most responsible thing to do with my money. While I like and prefer that approach I do have to admit I've made the most money buying good companies with warts. I've made steadier returns with net-net's but no 5/10 baggers, whereas I've had a 5 bagger and 10 bagger buying a good company cheap. I've done well with spinoffs as well too. I also like to buy hidden champion companies if possible when they hit a bump and the price is low as long as the business isn't impaired. The problem for me is good companies cheap doesn't happen often, so while I wait for the rare opportunity I dig through net-net stocks to bide the time.

I used Fidelity, execution seems fine, I've purchased stocks all over the world. Some international markets require calling the brokerage desk and paying $32 to trade over the phone plus $50 for the non-DTC settled stock. I've traded this way before and while the commission is high it ensures that I've actually done my research, I have a lot of conviction in the stock, and that I won't sell too quickly.

Ok, this is a fascinating approach to me, so looking at this for 100 shares to make it simple since options are priced in 100s: I buy 100 A warrants at 3.39 for $339 I buy 1 Jan 13 7.50 put for 253 Total cash outlay is 592 Scenario 1: BAC bankrupt goes to $1/sh Put is worth $6.50 in the money $650 I lose $339 on the warrants End up with a gain of $58 overall Scenario 2: BAC needs to sell for $13.30 + $3.39 = $16.69 at Jan 2019 for a gain on the warrants BAC needs to sell above $13.30 + $3.39 + $2.53 = $19.22 for a gain on the total investment So BAC needs to rise 3.2x before a gain is realized Am I right in how I'm thinking about this? So I'm struggling with why the warrant is better than just buying the normal shares, buying the normal shares with the put will result in a small loss if the company goes to zero, but the upside is much bigger. Whereas the shares need to rise above 19.22 for a gain owning the ordinaries would already have a $9.69 gain per share at that point. Thoughts?

I don't have a view either, but if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck...seems like you think it's a sell even though you won't admit it. Anyways this is a fascinating thread because I think it reveals how much of this is a sentiment game. The numbers are out there, some great posts have been made on this board over them yet people can't help themselves from thinking emotionally about the company. There is a lot of emotional baggage from the 2008 crisis. If BAC was in a foreign country and had no stigma or name recognition I think a lot of people would look at the numbers, management, and look at the problems and would figure they were solvable. Of course maybe they aren't, I have no clue, but either way this needs to be looked at without emotion. I'm not smart enough to analyze BAC, but I recognize that this is a loaded stock. It is either going to end up at zero or be a 5 bagger. Best of luck to all!

I bought some BRK today and some FSEMX in a 401k (ugh limited 401k choices...I digress) Looking to pick up some more TSRYY (TWE:AU) and NPK soon. Might scoop up a few more shares of TNTE if it gets cheap enough, HII is dropping like a rock as well nice and cheap now.

I have looked at international bank accounts and brokerage accounts as a US citizen...it's tough and tougher since the gov decided to put some onerous regulations on foreign banks holding US cash. A good resource is to check out the book "The World is Your Oyster" by Jeff Opdyke. It is mainly about investing in foreign stocks directly, written back in 2008. The book is a very quick read, I think I read it in 2 or 3 days (just on the bus) but contains a nice list of foreign brokerages that are willing to work with US citizens. He mentions in the book in most cases if you have a foreign brokerage you'll need a foreign bank account to hold dividends, and the bank account is easily setup with an affiliated bank because the brokerage account exists.

I had heard a quote a while back which I think strongly applies to most politics and investing: "As investors we deal with the government(politics) as it as not as we want it to be" Just like everyone else who's thought of these things I realize they can't continue in a linear fashion in their present form, of course something needs to change. I think everyone recognizes that, even most in Washington. The problem is that people visualize the how differently. I've realized my opinion on the how doesn't matter, so I'm content dealing with the present. I think it's good to be prepared for any sort of outcome (I hold cash in my portfolio) but outside of that I go digging for cheap companies and forget about the rest. As they say the failure rate of empires is 100% but it's not like the UK or Spain suddenly disappeared, people seem to be getting along quite fine over there...

Not sure if anyone here follows Jon Heller but he's been a very long time shareholder, I want to say since 2003. I know for a while he had a packet of the financials put together for sale, not sure if that's available anymore. http://stocksbelowncav.blogspot.com/ There is also a lot of free analysis on that site, I think he play was the value of the water under the land.

Couldn't the same be said about people everywhere in the world? What percent of people in China know these things, or in India? Great stats by the way, I think this just confirms what was posted on this thread or another about commentators disease. I mean just by shear numbers you have to figure 15% is above average, 70% average, and 15% below average (above average being one std dev). Unfortunately most above average people overestimate what exactly average means when it comes to knowledge. In defense of people in the Midwest (I grew up in Ohio..) while most might not know who Moody's is, or the how the government works most could probably do practical things like fix a car, or home repairs etc. And honestly at the end of the day putting a new alternator in my car is more meaningful to me then some esoteric debt ceiling. If the debt ceiling is raised it might or might not affect me, whereas if my car's alternator is fried I'm definitely affected. I know it's probably hard to believe for the audience on this board, but not following politics, or economics hasn't negatively impacted many people's lives who I'm friends with. They worry about their kids, their job and hanging out on weekends and seem pretty happy. I'd actually say knowing some of this stuff can add a layer of stress that most people never have to deal with. I would beg to differ on the credit rating bit though, I'm guessing almost all American's know what a credit rating is through the lens of a credit card/credit score.

I agree, I have made a similar point to people when they make comments about being frustrated at the government. If you look at the US as an aggregate we have, A population that is in debt over their heads Extremely short term oriented Avoids long term hard work for short term fixes (obesity problems, diet pills etc) Is enamored by entertainment A population with a very shallow understanding of history I know some people on here will say "that's not me" sure it isn't, but if you look at the country in aggregate this is what we have, and our government who represents us? Seems like they fit the same mold as the people. I'm not surprised at the clowns in Washington, but then again I'm not surprised at the clowns wandering this great land who elected them either. This is my own personal theory, but I think if you want to change the course of things either of two things need to happen: 1) A crisis which forces a change (our current course) 2) Change the people Obviously changing the people is a much harder and longer problem, but I think ultimately this is the one that rewards the populace. Doing things like getting people to do budgets, save money, pay down debt, eat healthy, exercise, do well in school.

Thanks for the replies, Uccmal I think you hit what I keep thinking is that while this might seem like a good idea in theory, it's the costs and the size of the spread that make the difference. As I think about this I keep coming back to the idea that in the currency world a movement of a few bps is big, and to take advantage I'd need to lever up, and leverage is the exact wrong response to this sort of thing. While this has been an interesting mental exercise I think it reinforces for me that I am not a macro trader, I need to just stick to my individual company analysis.

With all this default talk the idea has crept from the back of my mind to the forefront that maybe I should move some of my idle cash out of USD into something else for a few days. I guess the problem is I don't really know where to go with this thought, in theory any currency would be better than the dollar. I guess another option is to buy calls on a currency etf. I'm not concerned about a long term drop of the dollar I'm already used to that... I'm worried about a short drop and wondering if I can move out and back in to take advantage of some buying opportunities quickly. Is anyone else thinking anything like this? Am I totally crazy?

Let's hope the Swiss are safe just bought a big chunk of a Swiss company. In all of this I am confident that our politicians will be able to kick the can down the road. I fear for whoever actually will have to solve the buildup of debt one day. It will go on until it can't, that's when the fireworks begin.

twacowfca, Do you have a full time job in addition to the 50+ hours, or does investing pay the bills? For myself I'd say probably 20+ hours a week in addition to my day job but varies by week. I've found that the less I read about investing and the more I practice company evaluation the better I get...imagine that practice works! That said reading about the practice is entertaining and I can't help myself!

Just a small anecdotal story about this... At breakfast today the news story comes on about the debt ceiling and my mother-in-law who is retired and drawing Social Security says "well I think the problem is they're giving tax breaks they shouldn't cut Social Security... they can't cut it." My point is I think this is a generational battle as noted above, my parents and in-laws can't imagine their benefits being cut, they want taxes to go up to pay (of course they don't pay taxes anymore). While people in my generation can't imagine paying a high tax rate to pay for current benefits with no guarantee of the same rich benefits when we age. My own solution is to give each party pain, cut benefits and raise taxes. It's better for everyone to suffer a little bit than one group to suffer a lot, as long as everyone is angry it's probably a fair solution.

Stahleyp, you confirmed my suspicion, I had this in my Amazon Wishlist for years and never was able to pull the trigger on it. I guess it falls under the definition of a classic, something everyone wants to read but no one has.

Thanks for the links everyone, I'd seen some of them and others were new, so some good reading material. Kraven hits the nail on the head though none of the notes are from the 30s. My guess is that someone has a hard copy of them floating in an archive that Zweig has either seen or heard about. It would be great if something like that was available online, but even if they only existed at a university library that would be worthwhile as well. I also like on that thread how that poster asked a question and it ended up being answered by Buffett himself. The internet is a crazy place sometimes...

I was reading the following thread http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=77840&mrr=1310124512 and someone posted an email from Jason Zweig mentioning that there are copies of student notes from Ben Graham's value investing classes in the 30s floating around. I was wondering has anyone seen any of these? This is the first I'd heard of them, I'm guessing they're probably not digital, maybe in a book form?

There was a great article in this week's BusinessWeek about the death of MySpace. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_27/b4235053917570.htm