Swizzled

No idea what to think about all of the headlines about looming defaults, but it is interesting to see someone with a lot of experience zigging when everyone else is zagging. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/12/bill-gross-buying-muni-bond-funds-with.html

It is almost not cool for a big time hedgie to be bullish plain Jane equities is it ? I've grown so tired of listening to the doomsday predictions that this is actually refreshing (don't know about accurate). http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=118335

Apparently John has some pair on him. If Munger isn't rational then there is no human that is. Here is his article, I think the run in gold/silver has gone to his head http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=118330

Not sure if anyone here follows. I find Burbank fascinating as he went from nothing to managing a very large fund in a pretty short amount of time. Here is a recap of his thinking and positioning at the end of Q3 http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/12/passport-capital-q3-investor-letter.html

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=117529 It is called discipline, not a mistake of omission.

Thinks banks need to resume sensible lending to investors which would greatly help the housing market. Key word sensible. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=116663

I wrote the following article. For two years I have been trying to figure out when to start buying natural gas companies. When I look back to what the people at the top of the industry have predicted and just how out to lunch they have been I realize that there is no way that I'm going to be able to call a turn in prices. The three people and their specific predictions: http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=116295

It must be terrifying to run a financial entity of this size. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=116136

Hard to argue with his last 10 years. I'm firmly in the camp of wanting a commodity that actually has real use other than sitting in a vault though. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=115928

Picked this up on yahoo. At some point we are going to get an oil spike. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/11/saudi-king-urged-us-to-attack-iran.html

"There was a lot of debate on this board the last year or so as to wether to commit funds when we did not know wether the market has reached a bottom or not." I am very concious of the fact that after experiencing 2008 and early 2009 that I might forever be fighting yesterday's battle, meaning that I will always be afraid to be fully invested for fear of not having cash to deploy during rampant pessimism. At this point I'm sitting on a lot of cash, and I think there is a good chance that I will always be holding out for another panic that doesn't come in the next 20 years. The result could very well be a few points off my annual returns. I do however think having that cash waiting will result in better decision making as a following market will be something to be enjoyed. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/

I'm pretty sure that I can't figure out what is going to happen with natural gas. There are a lot of companies shifting capex to oil. SD isn't all that big, but CHK sure is. They are the most active NG driller and they are going to move to oil rather dramatically. Same for EOG, HK etc. That has to have an impact at some point. The production from those shale wells drop in a big way after one year, so drilling needs to continue. I follow Henry Groppe who has been very accurate in oil price predictions. He actually has a huge database developed over 50 years that tracks the movements of oil being shipped around the globe to reach conclusions based on hard data. He called for a big NG rebound this summer based on the declines and rig count drop in conventional NG plays. Obviously dead wrong. If he can't come close to getting it right, how can I ? Oil on the other hand seems much simpler to understand.

I wish we could hold people on CNBC to their daily predictions. Poor Bernanke actually has people keeping score. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=115285

Ward has said that he thinks the Haynesville is the main culprit to keeping natural gas prices down. I found a Credit Suisse note that shows the rig count is coming down fairly quickly now as HBP drilling slows. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/search/label/sd

More on RINO. 8k filed that details a telephone conversation between the auditor and the CEO. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/11/8k-filed-on-rino.html

I don't understand how this happens so frequently. A person could make a living shorting these things, it looks like this firm is trying to. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=115038

Everybody wants a piece of our oil sands. China, Japan, and now Thailand ? Yep they just took a big piece of Statoil's property. And another $1bil transaction to lock up Bakken land by Hess. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/11/couple-of-big-oil-deals-today.html Imagine seeing these two transactions 15 years ago. $1 billion for Bakken land that we couldn't figure how to get anything out of and more than $2 billion from Thailand into oil sands that had no chance of making money at $20 oil.

"Yup. Quite a few tag along buys. " I see this criticism all the time. But who cares ? If the best way to make money for his fund is to cheery pick the best ideas from a group of highly successful investors then I say go for it. There are no style points in my book. The only important thing is growing wealth as safely as possible. He has done an excellent job of that.

Hi, Yes.

"Looks like the CEO owns $200+ million. Several of the execs and directors own hundreds of thousands of shares as well so it looks like they are reasonably well aligned. Haven't dug too deep into the compensation plan to know if it's egregious or shareholder friendly though..." I think you found what you need. I started digging into PBG this summer, so I don't have a long period of time tracking them. But I've listened to every presentation possible and read everything I can find and I am very impressed with CEO Wright. I have no concern about his interests being aligned with shareholders. They capitalized this company with $30mil early in the decade and it now has a $4bil mkt cap and huge growth ahead of it with PBN, PMG and the HBU/THAI units. They are in it for the long haul and have done an incredible job so far obviously. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/

Mark S is Mark Sellers. He of the ridiculously concentrated portfolio (which was very successful). Here is some detail http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=107859 http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=106292 Tilson might be the outside man of T2, but he knows his positions. Check out the video below from this month at UVA http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/11/tilson-value-investing-presentation.html

" I will keep an close eye on the parent and praying it will spin off all other tangible assets and become a technology company. It will be worth billions easily if the technology is proven." Their intention is definitely to spin out PBN within the next couple of years. I was surprised (and encouraged) that they are spinning out PMG this year. You should give the Q3 conference call a listen, they think the technology is pretty much there already. And their reserve engineers seemingly do as well. I put a few notes together http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/11/petrobank-q3-that-free-option-thai-is.html

The hedge fund is actually a lot better. Up over 200% since 99 vs 7% for the market. http://www.scribd.com/doc/34316183/T2-Partners-Presentation-7-13-10

Came across the article linked below that was an interview with Tilson. I like the guy, think he is smart and a good investor (T2 record proves that). But I'm just shocked at how little experience he actually has, and especially what he had when he first started showing up as a main face of value investing. I guess the same could be said of someone like Einhorn who really hasn't been at it for much more than a decade either. http://valueinvestorcanada.blogspot.com/2010/11/tilson-interview-about-how-he-got.html

Yes, there are some tax implications to US investors. Not an issue for me fortunately so I don't know enough to quantify the impact. I actually did mean to post the idea on the other board !